The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Eric is Quiet]

Moderation

 

Look guys, it's very clear Jeight is not going to listen to you guys and will believe Multiverse of Madness has good WOM no matter what you say. Do you need to argue with somebody who will never see where you're coming from? Just move on to something else, because it's not worth it.

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Amsterdam sales are too strong for me to confidently predict sub-5M for it. Probably going with 9-12 for the time being.

It sort of reminds me of The Monuments Men, another starry adult drama with poor reviews and no awards prospects that succeeded at the box office due to the insane star power involved. Doubt it does as well as that did but it'll probably attract somewhat of an audience thanks to the promise of seeing all these people in one movie alone.

[katnisscinnaplex]

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-37	Black Panther 2	PLF	32	1,702	1,702	7,298	23.32%	$15.60	$26,544.98
		Standard	69	688	688	8,470	8.12%	$11.30	$7,777.01
	Total		101	2,390	2,390	15,768	15.16%	$14.36	$34,321.99

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-37	Black Panther 2	N	75	2,146	2,146	11,738	18.28%	$14.74	$31,637.05
		Y	26	244	244	4,030	6.05%	$11.00	$2,684.94
	Total		101	2,390	2,390	15,768	15.16%	$14.36	$34,321.99

 

BP2 comps

 - NWH (33hr) - .18x (9.01m)

 - Batman (23hr) - 1.3x (22.92m)

 - Batman Full (23hr) - 1.05x (22.06m)

 - Thor 4 (26hr) - .664x (19.25m)

 

 - DS2 (3.5hr) - .456x (16.41m)

 - DS2 (50hr) - .328x (11.8m)

[M37]

12 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

So BP2 has 20 days to catch up. Let us see how things go.

Agreed. First day sales can be useful to track, but with such a long sales window, not paying much attention to comps until ~T-21 checkpoint 

[keysersoze123]

8 minutes ago, M37 said:

Agreed. First day sales can be useful to track, but with such a long sales window, not paying much attention to comps until ~T-21 checkpoint 

There is time but after few days the PS will be crawling along closer to release unless there are catalysts like early social media reactions or reviews. 

[GOGODanca]

https://www.indiewire.com/2022/10/movie-ticket-price-average-11-dollars-1234765924/

[Tinalera]

20 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

This got lost in all of the handwringing comments about BP2's start, so I'll give it a response now.

 

Some folks here have developed scrapers that work with some chains.

Some folks here use keyword searches from individual theater chains' showtimes (either via HTML source code or via Inspect Element) or have some other shortcut method to speed up a count

And some folks here are mad enough to actually count the seats in each showtime manually.

 

So, the answer it, it depends on the tracker.

I belong in the third category   To be fair I don't count them individually but rather the theatre has a "number sold/number remaining" for each show which I refer to. Im also doing Canada (SW/Toronto) theatres so that just adds to the fun factor.

[Tinalera]

20 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Not gonna comp for BP as the local theater landscape is ****FAR**** too different now.  Like, immensely too different.  I don't think it'd be possible for me to adjust it, frankly.

 

(not to mention BP2 will be much more frontloaded than BP1)

((plus, I didn't start to track BP1 until partway into the track)

Geez a bit early to be talking about Black Panther 2 sales right now hahaha. You had me thinking I have BP 2 tickets to check now hahahaha *checks Cineplex website* hahah  ha ha.......haaa......

 

Oh BP 2 is on sale now.........

Edited October 4, 2022 by Tinalera

[Tinalera]

Halloween Ends (no comps today, hopefully tomorrow I have some Nope comps, and maybe Smile later this week)

Oct 13/14 (t-9 Thurs, T-10 Fri)

SW/Toronto Ontario

 

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	20	59	269	15550	15819	0.0170
Fri	20	76	364	19278	19642	0.0185

 

 

[el sid]

Yesterday was the Day of German Unity and I counted but I was too busy/lazy to search for comps, so these numbers below are from yesterday:

Amsterdam, counted yesterday at 11am EST for Thursday, October 6:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 13 (2 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 4 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 1 (1 showtime)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 4 (1 showtime)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 4 (1 showtime)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 79 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 79 (7 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 184.

Comps (all counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday): The Last Duel had 74 sold tickets,

Death on the Nile had 212,
Bullet Train had 879

and Don't Worry Darling 512.

Amsterdam, counted yesterday at 11am EST for Friday, October 7:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 36 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 11 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 0 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 6 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 7 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 17 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 44 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 121.
 

Comps (all counted on Monday of the release week for Friday): The Last Duel had 46 sold tickets,

Death on the Nile had 198,

BT had 655,

DWD had 450

and Nightmare Alley had 79.

Let's see how it looks tomorrow in my theaters but so far that's not convincing.
 

Lyle Lyle, Crocodile, counted yesterday at 11am EST for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 13 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 4 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 0 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 2 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 3 (1 showtime)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 12 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 15 (3 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 49.
Comp: Dolittle had also on Monday for Thursday 156 sold tickets.

 

LLC, counted yesterday at 11am EST for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 11 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 10 (5 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 4 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 7 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 0 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 6 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 5 (3 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 41.
 

Comps: The Legend of Hank had 71 sold tickets on Tuesday of its release week = 1 day later.

Dog had 47 sold tickets on Wednesday of its release week = 2 days later.

Clifford had 75 sold tickets on Monday for Wednesday, its first full day.

And Dolittle had on Monday for Friday 143 sold tickets.

There's also room for improvement.

[katnisscinnaplex]

I had a look at initial showtimes for BP2 from my US sample.

 

Double Feature - 98 shows on 11/10

 

Previews

26,735 shows

2,331 theaters

1,013 IMAX shows

5,116 3D shows

490 Dolby

443 D-Box

383 XD

206 RPX

 

Comps

DS2 (T-4 wks) - 26,823 (2,402 TC) (1,006 IMAX)

Thor 4 (T-3 wks) - 23,551 (2,550 TC) (1,062 IMAX)

Batman (T-3 wks) - 21,077 (2,439 TC) (865 IMAX)

JW:D (T-5 wks) - 18,526 (2,512) (803 IMAX)

[el sid]

Halloween Ends, counted today at 10am EST for Thursday, October 13:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 60 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 77 (5 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 8 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 2 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 11 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 68 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 364 (5 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 590.

Comps (all counted on Monday of the release week = 6 days left for Halloween Ends): Smile had 213 sold tickets,
AQP II had 747,

Scream had 1.004

and Halloween Kills had 591 sold tickets

 

HE, counted today at 10am EST for Friday, October 14:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 96 (8 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 59 (11 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 21 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 9 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 12 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 53 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 174 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 424.
 

Comps (again all counted on Monday of the release week) Smile had 229 sold tickets,

The Conjuring 3 had 641,

Scream had 588

and HK had 750 sold tickets.

 

Good presales so far but it seems to be a bit more frontloaded than Halloween Kills was.

Edited October 4, 2022 by el sid

[GOGODanca]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/dwayne-johnson-black-adam-tracking-box-office-tracking-1235233203/

 

Quote

If tracking is correct, Black Adam should bestow Dwayne Johnson with the biggest box office opening of his career, outside of the main Fast & Furious franchise.

The New Line/Warner Bros. release is pacing to debut anywhere between $70 million to $75 million in its domestic debut over the Oct. 21-23 weekend — if not higher. Sources with access to tracking say the surveys show that Black Adam is similar in strength to Sony’s origin movie Venom, which opened to $80 million in early October 2018.

If tracking and box office analysts are being more conservative than with Venom in suggesting $70 million-plus for Black Adam, it’s because the box office is still in pandemic recovery mode.

 

 

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/dwayne-johnson-black-adam-tracking-box-office-tracking-1235233203/

 

 

 

So much for underpromising/setting expectations. 

[ringedmortality]

So does that mean it’s gonna open higher than Morbius?

[Manny G]

9 hours ago, AJG said:

I wonder why they released the tix so early. Who buys a movie ticket 40 days in advance?

I guess they wanted it to coincide with the new trailer but yeah it odd and really not needed.  A random Monday more than a month before the movie out. Maybe they thought  releasing closer to release date would be competing for attention with Halloween or BA but Marvel is all King that shouldn’t matter they’ll always dominate. 
 

 

[Tinalera]

14 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

So much for underpromising/setting expectations. 

Im shocked you'd say such a thing. They would never ever try to raise expectations-these are seasoned veterans darn it! They know they movie industry! What possible reason would they have to heighten expectations-they wouldn't dare do such a thing to try and get views....Im shocked, SHOCKED by your Cynicism! 

 

,,,,,,

Edited October 5, 2022 by Tinalera

[babz06]

7 hours ago, filmlover said:

It sort of reminds me of The Monuments Men, another starry adult drama with poor reviews and no awards prospects that succeeded at the box office due to the insane star power involved. Doubt it does as well as that did but it'll probably attract somewhat of an audience thanks to the promise of seeing all these people in one movie alone.

It’s still going to be a loss because of the 80m budget. They needed to cut that down to 40-50m. then a sub 20m opening wouldn’t look so bad. 

[Old Spice]

29 minutes ago, babz06 said:

It’s still going to be a loss because of the 80m budget. They needed to cut that down to 40-50m. then a sub 20m opening wouldn’t look so bad. 

Oooof. $80M? That's shocking. I never would have guessed from the trailer that it cost that much. Lots of star power for sure, but still, that's brutal. 

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

BP:WF MTC2 previews - 32238/576655 478810.54 4233 shows

BP:WF MTC2 previews - 45926/582582 683728.44

 

Friday overnight was at 26608/890448 373979.74 6629 shows. 

 

Good growth over 24 hours. Of course my run started early yesterday and so for some theaters its most of opening day presales. Let us see how things go after this.