The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Jaybee]

27 minutes ago, Eric Adam said:

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-24 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	246	5597	42932	13.04%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 129

 

Comp

0.704x of Doctor Strange 2 T-24 (25.33M)

1.517x of Thor 4 T-24 (44M)

mid 60m opening possible?

[Lighthouse]

Cant wait for the meltdown of a certain afwul "actor" in the upcoming days. I can't post it in his movie thread because there is a mod who deletes every comments with any criticism Lol

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-25 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	294	31400	37019	5619	15.18%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

121

 

T-25 Comp

%

Sold T-25

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

MoM

67.45

224

8331

0/329

32585/40916

20.36%

21117

26.61%

24.28m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Panther 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1323/11833  [11.18% sold]
Matinee:     267/4102  [6.51% | 4.75% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

There was an error in yesterday's totals that has now been corrected.  I suspected there was one, but I couldn't find it easily as I had, when I count DBOX showings, over 300 different showtimes to check. 

 

Turns out, it was one of the DBOX showings where I accidentally counted it as a full showing, thanks to Fandango's new HTML code (with an assist to my local Cinemarks not playing nice with it).  Thanks bunches, Fandango.   Anywho, all sorted now.

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-24 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	294	31311	37019	5708	15.42%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

89

 

T-24 Comp

	%		Sold T-24	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	66.50		253	8584		0/329	32332/40916	20.98%		21117	27.03%		23.94m
L&T	137.18		4161	4161		0/228	27442/31603	13.17%		16962	33.65%		39.78m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Panther 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1343/11833  [11.35% sold]
Matinee:    269/4102  [6.56% | 4.71% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Black Adam Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	169	22425	24311	1886	7.76%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

216

 

T-4 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	251.13		141	751		0/87	14373/15124	4.97%		2352	80.19%		10.30m
SC	78.39		261	2406		0/113	15205/17611	13.66%		5847	32.26%		6.90m
LTBC	76.64		453	2461		0/183	26301/28762	8.56%		7712	24.46%		8.89m
ET	62.04		191	3040		0/101	12928/15968	19.04%		6409	29.43%		5.89m
Bats	31.32		368	6021		0/297	30769/36790	16.37%		11757	16.04%		6.77m
Morb	139.50		127	1352		0/151	20089/21441	6.31%		3477	54.24%		7.95m
JW3	40.83		449	4619		0/224	23313/27932	16.54%		10966	17.20%		7.35m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Adam's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-4 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	98.95		200	1806		0/89	11678/13484	13.39%		4407	40.55%		7.36m
BA (adj)			212	1787		0/144	18885/20672	8.64%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  BA (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:     403/7583  [5.31% sold]
Matinee:    67/2475  [2.71% | 3.55% of all tickets sold]

 

Black Adam Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	223	27742	29914	2172	7.26%

 

Total Showings Added Today	54
Total Seats Added Today	5603
Total Seats Sold Today	286

 

T-3 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	242.68		144	895		0/100	15314/16209	5.52%		2352	92.35%		9.95m
SC	79.24		335	2741		0/156	19111/21852	12.54%		5847	37.15%		6.97m
LTBC	71.52		576	3037		0/216	28173/31210	9.73%		7712	28.16%		8.30m
ET	63.19		397	3437		0/118	13711/17148	20.04%		6409	33.89%		6.00m
Bats	32.09		748	6769		0/324	31752/38521	17.57%		11757	18.47%		6.93m
Morb	137.73		225	1577		0/178	22278/23855	6.61%		3477	62.47%		7.85m
JW3	35.82		795	6063		0/281	26773/32836	18.46%		10966	19.81%		6.45m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Black Adam's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-3 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	98.74		257	2063		0/122	15198/17261	11.95%		4407	46.22%		7.34m
BA (adj)			250	2037		0/198	24238/26275	7.75%

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  BA (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:     465/10474  [4.44% sold]
Matinee:     96/3691  [2.60% | 4.42% of all tickets sold]

[jedijake]

5 hours ago, Jaybee said:

mid 60m opening possible?

???

Edited October 18, 2022 by jedijake

[Nikostar]

5 hours ago, Jaybee said:

mid 60m opening possible?

For Black Adam yes

[jedijake]

15 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

For Black Adam yes

I think the person posting that thought they were responding to a Black Adam post.

 

Btw, why is there such a disparity between the MoM comps and ThL&T comps (for BPWF)?

 

In other words, why were pre-sales so different for MoM and THLT?

Edited October 18, 2022 by jedijake

[Jaybee]

14 minutes ago, jedijake said:

???

 65ish ow possible for black adam was the query i wanted to ask. sorry for the half baked message!

 

14 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

For Black Adam yes

with embargo being lifted in 11 hours, will there be a pickup in sales tomorrow if the reviews are positive?

[Jaybee]

1 minute ago, jedijake said:

I think the person posting that thought they were responding to a Black Adam post.

yes exactly..my bad, quoted the wrong message!

[Minnale101]

Nice as someone who black Adam at the Toronto premiere

 

the movie will absolutely work with general audience, it’s not as cringey as it look in trailers 

 

so to see it now have chance 65 million ow that’s wonderful. I think it’s gonna do over 70 million tbh. 
 

people been craving a good cinematic experience for months now. The wom will increase ow I’m sure 

[TwoMisfits]

6 hours ago, jedijake said:

I think the person posting that thought they were responding to a Black Adam post.

 

Btw, why is there such a disparity between the MoM comps and ThL&T comps (for BPWF)?

 

In other words, why were pre-sales so different for MoM and THLT?

 

Different start date for presales - I believe MoM had a longer presale period than Thor...so Thor's comps should level out closer to MoM comps in a few days...

Edited October 18, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[M37]

39 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Btw, why is there such a disparity between the MoM comps and ThL&T comps (for BPWF)?

Strange MoM was considered a pseudo-sequel to NWH, so anticipation and sales were high from the jump (which ultimately backfired in WOM). Thor L&T meanwhile was just another MCU movie, plus a summer sales period/opening, where many people are out of the M-F routine, making sales generally less pre-sale heavy and walk-up friendly 

 

Neither is a great comp for BPWF, but would lean far more towards MoM values 

[Tinalera]

2 hours ago, Minnale101 said:

Nice as someone who black Adam at the Toronto premiere

 

the movie will absolutely work with general audience, it’s not as cringey as it look in trailers 

 

so to see it now have chance 65 million ow that’s wonderful. I think it’s gonna do over 70 million tbh. 
 

people been craving a good cinematic experience for months now. The wom will increase ow I’m sure 

I cover some SW Ontario and Toronto theatres, so will be interesting to watch, between this and the embargo when it lifts. I might have a busy next couple of days keeping up with upshoots in sales lol

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, M37 said:

Strange MoM was considered a pseudo-sequel to NWH, so anticipation and sales were high from the jump (which ultimately backfired in WOM). Thor L&T meanwhile was just another MCU movie, plus a summer sales period/opening, where many people are out of the M-F routine, making sales generally less pre-sale heavy and walk-up friendly 

 

Neither is a great comp for BPWF, but would lean far more towards MoM values 

I think both movies will be great comp. Ultimately by the release date, the previews would map the same. How they arrive their differ a bit. I guess final week sales will be similar to Thor and DS2(Both of them had similar final week presales though MOM had way higher initial presales resulting in the difference in thursday previews).

 

for now Thor comps skew so much as BP2 has had 2 weeks of presales vs just 1 day for thor. before this week is done thor will be ahead as intial week sales are way higher than current steady state growth for BP2. Question is can BP2 catch up. We have to wait and see. 

[keysersoze123]

Black Adam (T-3)

MTC1 - 61465/499251 1102408.01 2397 shows

MTC2 - 26848/394432 380796.20 2456 shows

 

Data is of yesterday evening. its doing well in big cities but anemic in smaller markets looking at MTC2 data. Still if MTC1 keeps growing like it has done past day, I am expecting at least 8 million previews. 

[Skim Beeble]

The wide release for Till has Thursday previews staring at 1 PM

[el sid]

These presale numbers were taken yesterday. Presales of Black Adam counted today in a few hours.

Ticket to Paradise, counted yesterday for Thursday, October 20:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): - no showtimes so far
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 15 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 3 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 2 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 0 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 20 (2 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 18 (3 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 58.

Comps (all counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday): The Lost City had 306 sold tickets,

Death on the Nile had 212 sold tickets,

DWD had 512

and Crawdads had 122 sold tickets.
 

Ticket to Paradise, counted yesterday for Friday, October 21:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): no showtimes so far
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 9 (5 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 10 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 4 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 1 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 22 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 25 (3 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 71.

Comps (all counted on Monday of its release week for Friday): TLC had 196 sold tickets,

Death on the Nile had 198,

DWD had 450

and Crawdads had 87 sold tickets.

I guess this film doesn't need big presales but so far I'm still a bit surprised how low they are in my theaters.
 

[Jaybee]

13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Black Adam (T-3)

MTC1 - 61465/499251 1102408.01 2397 shows

MTC2 - 26848/394432 380796.20 2456 shows

 

Data is of yesterday evening. its doing well in big cities but anemic in smaller markets looking at MTC2 data. Still if MTC1 keeps growing like it has done past day, I am expecting at least 8 million previews. 

if it achieves the 8m mark then where will it land for the weekend?

[TwoMisfits]

36 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Black Adam (T-3)

MTC1 - 61465/499251 1102408.01 2397 shows

MTC2 - 26848/394432 380796.20 2456 shows

 

Data is of yesterday evening. its doing well in big cities but anemic in smaller markets looking at MTC2 data. Still if MTC1 keeps growing like it has done past day, I am expecting at least 8 million previews. 

 

MTC 2 also skews more to families and family movies than MTC 1 (especially with their subscriber base)...and does sell on Atom.

 

We;'ll see if families find the Atom discount enough to ramp late buys b/c there's a lot of room for ramping up at MTC 2 for this movie...

[DAJK]

28 minutes ago, Jaybee said:

if it achieves the 8m mark then where will it land for the weekend?

I would guess it has a similar internal multiplier as Venom (movies have gotten more frontloaded, but I imagine there is less upfront demand for Black Adam than Venom). So around 8x.
 

8M would get you low-to-mid 60s for the weekend.