The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[IronJimbo]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Suspect it's actually some sort of coding error going on that is allowing the initial page to be hit but then running into the embargo wall when actually trying to get to the purchase ticket stage.

 

 

they're available now.

I've never followed presales tracking before @Porthos i would appreciate a little rundown of what to expect 😇

I'm assuming until they start actively advertising you shouldn't expect many ticket sales?

[XXR & Friends]

25 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

they're available now.

I've never followed presales tracking before @Porthos i would appreciate a little rundown of what to expect 😇

I'm assuming until they start actively advertising you shouldn't expect many ticket sales?

1) They’re not available in the US. Most likely they will go live in 2 hours

 

2) Yea until ticket sales get advertised, it’s going to be only the hardcore movie goers who are aware they’re on sale. I imagine the sales announcement will come with the trailer tonight, so it probably won’t be beneficial to do any kind of comparison for 2-3 days.

 

3) OD is T-25 from today so most major comps will already be available, though I’m not sure which would be the best to use. Leaning towards TGM and JWD.

[SchumacherFTW]

27 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

they're available now.

I've never followed presales tracking before @Porthos i would appreciate a little rundown of what to expect 😇

I'm assuming until they start actively advertising you shouldn't expect many ticket sales?

Big number when they go on sale initially, that'll turn in to a trickle generally until about 10 days before release. Will be very PLF heavy to start with

[IronJimbo]

5 minutes ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

1) They’re not available in the US. Most likely they will go live in 2 hours

 

2) Yea until ticket sales get advertised, it’s going to be only the hardcore movie goers who are aware they’re on sale. I imagine the sales announcement will come with the trailer tonight, so it probably won’t be beneficial to do any kind of comparison for 2-3 days.

 

3) OD is T-25 from today so most major comps will already be available, though I’m not sure which would be the best to use. Leaning towards TGM and JWD.

They are live currently for regal cinemas!
Yeah trailer today will say "tickets on sale now" i'm hyped

I guess JWD sounds like a similar sceneario, full family movie. I'm willing to accept the opening weekend will follow normal film comps, but after that it's Avatar time.

 

7 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Big number when they go on sale initially, that'll turn in to a trickle generally until about 10 days before release. Will be very PLF heavy to start with

got it!

 

thanks both 🙏

[JustLurking]

15 minutes ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

1) They’re not available in the US. Most likely they will go live in 2 hours

 

2) Yea until ticket sales get advertised, it’s going to be only the hardcore movie goers who are aware they’re on sale. I imagine the sales announcement will come with the trailer tonight, so it probably won’t be beneficial to do any kind of comparison for 2-3 days.

 

3) OD is T-25 from today so most major comps will already be available, though I’m not sure which would be the best to use. Leaning towards TGM and JWD.

Yeah, I've been thinking JW will be the best point of comparison for A2 PS for a while.

[TwoMisfits]

11 hours ago, filmlover said:

I’ve been looking at the sales for the Thanksgiving openers and Strange World is selling plenty (at least enough to indicate $25M for the 5-day is happening) but otherwise…it’s not gonna be a pretty frame, let’s just say that. Devotion is barely doing better here in early sales than She Said did.

 

You're in Florida.  Is Strange World really selling anywhere else (except maybe California, too).  Around me, it's a whisper so far...

[filmlover]

28 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

You're in Florida.  Is Strange World really selling anywhere else (except maybe California, too).  Around me, it's a whisper so far...

It seems to be selling a decent amount of seats in the major cities. Like, it's not doing to do great obviously (it would've looked like an obvious underperformer for Disney even pre-COVID), but at least it's showing some signs of movement and will easily be the highlight of what's looking to be a bleak Thanksgiving weekend for openers.

[WrathOfHan]

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bones and All	T-2	Jax	5	9	8	22	756	2.91%
		Phx	6	11	4	12	711	1.69%
		Ral	6	8	2	20	891	2.24%
	Total		17	28	14	54	2,358	2.29%
Devotion	T-2	Jax	5	16	6	32	1,470	2.18%
		Phx	7	20	7	24	2,238	1.07%
		Ral	7	18	0	34	1,516	2.24%
	Total		19	54	13	90	5,224	1.72%
Fabelmans	T-3	Jax	2	8	0	8	492	1.63%
		Phx	1	4	1	3	164	1.83%
		Ral	2	8	2	11	1,276	0.86%
	Total		5	20	3	22	1,932	1.14%
Glass Onion	T-3	Jax	4	17	3	184	1,962	9.38%
		Phx	3	16	20	149	1,380	10.80%
		Ral	2	12	46	292	946	30.87%
	Total		9	45	69	625	4,288	14.58%
Heard the Bells	T-11	Jax	4	5	6	82	678	12.09%
		Phx	2	2	0	26	596	4.36%
		Ral	6	6	2	244	566	43.11%
	Total		12	13	8	352	1,840	19.13%
Puss Boots (EA)	T-6	Jax	4	4	16	66	366	18.03%
		Phx	5	5	16	79	488	16.19%
		Ral	5	5	14	46	667	6.90%
	Total		14	14	46	191	1,521	12.56%
Puss in Boots	T-31	Jax	5	29	0	4	3,051	0.13%
		Phx	5	25	0	8	3,084	0.26%
		Ral	6	35	4	19	4,013	0.47%
	Total		16	89	4	31	10,148	0.31%
Strange World	T-2	Jax	5	19	0	21	1,936	1.08%
		Phx	7	23	0	26	2,994	0.87%
		Ral	8	19	3	13	2,100	0.62%
	Total		20	61	3	60	7,030	0.85%
Violent Night	T-11	Jax	5	18	0	17	1,974	0.86%
		Phx	5	14	3	16	2,161	0.74%
		Ral	6	13	2	23	1,485	1.55%
	Total		16	45	5	56	5,620	1.00%

 

Bones and All T-2 comps

 - Crawdads - .095x (190k)

 - Antlers - .9x (333k)

 - Smile - missed

 - Last Night in Soho - .54x (405k)

 

Strange World T-2 comps

 - Lightyear - .066x (322k)

 - Encanto - .248x (372k)

 - Sonic 2 - .056x (279k)

 - Sing 2 - .025x (206k)

 

Devotion - T-2 comps

 - Amsterdam - .72x (396k)

 - Snake Eyes - .393x (550k)

 - Free Guy - .256x (564k)

 - Massive Talent - .657x (460k)

 

Glass Onion T-3 comps (Opening day vs previews)

 - NTTD + EA - missed

 - F9 - .43x (3.06m)

 - Ghostbusters + EA - .67x (3.02m)

 - Top Gun 2 + EA - .111x (2.13m)

Fabelmans T-3 comps (Opening day vs previews)

 - House of Gucci - .1x (130k)

 - Elvis - missed

 

Puss in Boots EA T-6 comps

 - Sing 2 EA - .582x

 - Sonic 2 EA - 1.085x (1.38k)

 

(EA sales have been consistently increasing against the comps.  Should be a solid day)

 

Violent Night T-11 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 2.15x (1.08m)

 - Bullet Train - .264x (885k)

 - Northman - missed

 

(Not sure what to use here)

 

I Heard the Bells T-11 comps

 - Downton Abbey + EA - .852x (1.53m)

 

Puss in Boots T-31 comps

 - Nope - missed

 - JW3 + EA - .019x (348k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Bones and All	T-1	Jax	5	9	2	24	756	3.17%
		Phx	6	11	0	12	711	1.69%
		Ral	6	8	13	33	891	3.70%
	Total		17	28	15	69	2,358	2.93%
Devotion	T-1	Jax	5	16	7	39	1,470	2.65%
		Phx	7	20	12	36	2,238	1.61%
		Ral	7	18	-8	26	1,516	1.72%
	Total		19	54	11	101	5,224	1.93%
Fabelmans	T-2	Jax	2	8	4	12	492	2.44%
		Phx	1	4	2	5	164	3.05%
		Ral	2	8	6	17	1,276	1.33%
	Total		5	20	12	34	1,932	1.76%
Glass Onion	T-2	Jax	4	17	31	215	1,962	10.96%
		Phx	3	16	52	201	1,380	14.57%
		Ral	2	13	39	331	996	33.23%
	Total		9	46	122	747	4,338	17.22%
Heard the Bells	T-10	Jax	4	5	10	92	678	13.57%
		Phx	2	2	0	26	596	4.36%
		Ral	6	6	0	244	566	43.11%
	Total		12	13	10	362	1,840	19.67%
Puss Boots (EA)	T-5	Jax	4	4	10	76	366	20.77%
		Phx	5	5	4	83	488	17.01%
		Ral	5	5	7	53	667	7.95%
	Total		14	14	21	212	1,521	13.94%
Puss in Boots	T-30	Jax	5	29	0	4	3,051	0.13%
		Phx	5	25	2	10	3,084	0.32%
		Ral	6	35	0	19	4,013	0.47%
	Total		16	89	2	33	10,148	0.33%
Strange World	T-1	Jax	5	19	6	27	1,936	1.39%
		Phx	7	23	16	42	2,994	1.40%
		Ral	8	19	12	25	2,100	1.19%
	Total		20	61	34	94	7,030	1.34%
Violent Night	T-10	Jax	5	18	4	21	1,974	1.06%
		Phx	5	14	0	16	2,161	0.74%
		Ral	6	13	2	25	1,485	1.68%
	Total		16	45	6	62	5,620	1.10%

 

Bones and All T-1 comps

 - Crawdads - .095x (190k)

 - Antlers - .9x (333k)

 - Smile - missed

 - Last Night in Soho - .54x (405k)

 

Strange World T-1 comps

 - Lightyear - .08x (390k)

 - Encanto - .303x (454k)

 - Sonic 2 - .067x (334k)

 - Sing 2 - .034x (274k)

 

Devotion - T-1 comps

 - Amsterdam - .71x (391k)

 - Snake Eyes - .324x (453k)

 - Free Guy - .25x (550k)

 - Massive Talent - .529x (370k)

 

Glass Onion T-2 comps (Opening day vs previews)

 - NTTD + EA - missed

 - F9 - .432x (3.066m)

 - Ghostbusters + EA - .66x (2.99m)

 - Top Gun 2 + EA - .115x (2.22m)

Fabelmans T-2 comps (Opening day vs previews)

 - House of Gucci - .11x (144k)

 - Elvis - .046x (146k)

 

Puss in Boots EA T-5 comps

 - Sing 2 EA - .437x

 - Sonic 2 EA - 1.11x (1.41k)

 

(EA sales have been consistently increasing against the comps.  Should be a solid day)

 

Violent Night T-10 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 1.938x (969k)

 - Bullet Train - .286x (957k)

 - Northman - .66x (890k)

 

I Heard the Bells T-10 comps

 - Downton Abbey + EA - .848x (1.526m)

 

Puss in Boots T-30 comps

 - Nope - .196x (1.26m)

 - JW3 + EA - .02x (356k)

[M37]

16 hours ago, Porthos said:

Just mentioned this in the A2 thread, but might as well mention it here for tracking purposes, but nearly all of the Regal 3D showings are labeled as High Frame Rate.  So far, the 4DX 3D showings aren't HFR (and might not be able to due to the format), but nearly every other Regal 3D showing is HFR.

 

Studio Movie Grill also put up an initial set, but so far it isn't labeled as HFR.  But they might not have all the info up yet.

This could be a coding error (a default attribute pushed down from corp with the bookings to all theaters.
But to be perfectly honest, I haven’t really been following the tech side here, so I’m not sure if HFR is just the standard for the Avatar 3D shows or something that is supposed to be a limited/special edition 

[Eric the Minion]

Still not getting anything from my Regals for Avatar just yet. Still getting error messages. Ah well, I can wait until it's noon.

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, Eric Killmonger said:

Still not getting anything from my Regals for Avatar just yet. Still getting error messages. Ah well, I can wait until it's noon.

I think it's just unlucky for your local Regal. I've seen screenshots of people buying tickets.

[TwoMisfits]

I'm assuming Cinemark, outside of some Dolby and 3d, isn't going to be a strong chain for Avatar 2 b/c it can't handle the best viewing requirements.

 

I say this b/c my 2 locals haven't even bothered setting for the movie yet, let alone trying to sell presale tickets.  I'm sure they will soon, but I'm sure they also know they will not be the uber-fan viewing spot, nor do they have unlimited type subscribers who also want to buy early for best seats.  So, strategic waiting?  Or just sucking at set up this morning...

 

Edit to add: My AMC is giving it 4 of 16 screens for presales - the 3 PLFs and 1 normal.  I don't follow this one, but that seems a normal blockbuster presale set, not an enormous one...

Edited November 21, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[M37]

2 hours ago, Toruk Makto XXR said:

1) They’re not available in the US. Most likely they will go live in 2 hours

 

2) Yea until ticket sales get advertised, it’s going to be only the hardcore movie goers who are aware they’re on sale. I imagine the sales announcement will come with the trailer tonight, so it probably won’t be beneficial to do any kind of comparison for 2-3 days.

 

3) OD is T-25 from today so most major comps will already be available, though I’m not sure which would be the best to use. Leaning towards TGM and JWD.

Agree with all of this, but one more thing to add (CC @IronJimbo)

 

starting pre-sales on Thanksgiving week is (yet another) curious choice for Avatar. I get that Disney wanted to give BPWF some breathing room before switching advertising gears, and I guess not wait too long to start sales, but … a week when schools and offices are closed, people are traveling, with family, shopping, etc, may dampen the initial sales burst. Don’t think we’re really going to have a good sense of the sales tracking/trajectory until probably around T-14 to T-11

 

Oh, and one other comp that might be worth throwing in the mix: Elvis - a name director with a fan base, a well known subject/story, but also a fairly GA friendly/leggy audience 

[M37]

14 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Edit to add: My AMC is giving it 4 of 16 screens for presales - the 3 PLFs and 1 normal.  I don't follow this one, but that seems a normal blockbuster presale set, not an enormous one...

From what I’ve seen, theaters are scheduling every PLF/3D screen they have, plus only one standard screen (this may be a Disney/Cameron stipulation). So we probably won’t see major show volume until closer to release when more standard shows are (can be) added. It’s not like an MCU opening where like 6-10 screens are put on sale from the jump

[Menor the Destroyer]

15 minutes ago, M37 said:

Agree with all of this, but one more thing to add (CC @IronJimbo)

 

starting pre-sales on Thanksgiving week is (yet another) curious choice for Avatar. I get that Disney wanted to give BPWF some breathing room before switching advertising gears, and I guess not wait too long to start sales, but … a week when schools and offices are closed, people are traveling, with family, shopping, etc, may dampen the initial sales burst. Don’t think we’re really going to have a good sense of the sales tracking/trajectory until probably around T-14 to T-11

 

Oh, and one other comp that might be worth throwing in the mix: Elvis - a name director with a fan base, a well known subject/story, but also a fairly GA friendly/leggy audience 

I mean at some point scale has to matter and Elvis full run is at the same level as Avatar 2's lower end OW.

[IronJimbo]

19 minutes ago, M37 said:

Agree with all of this, but one more thing to add (CC @IronJimbo)

 

starting pre-sales on Thanksgiving week is (yet another) curious choice for Avatar. I get that Disney wanted to give BPWF some breathing room before switching advertising gears, and I guess not wait too long to start sales, but … a week when schools and offices are closed, people are traveling, with family, shopping, etc, may dampen the initial sales burst. Don’t think we’re really going to have a good sense of the sales tracking/trajectory until probably around T-14 to T-11

 

Oh, and one other comp that might be worth throwing in the mix: Elvis - a name director with a fan base, a well known subject/story, but also a fairly GA friendly/leggy audience 

good post, i'm out of reactions but here's a 👍

By the way I would watch the marketing closely for the film, I think trailer might release in 2 hours alongside with "buy tickets now"

[Grebacio]

I think Wakanda Forever and The Batman are good comps for Avatar

[TwoMisfits]

Okay, locals just slow...

 

13 showings (so 4 screens) with 11 showings in 3d (7 XD 3d and 4 reg 3d) and only 2 in 2d at 1st local.

13 showings (so 4 screens) with 10 showings in 3d (all reg - this theaters has no PLF) and only 3 in 3d at 2nd local.

 

Should be a very pricey per ticket average for presales if they can sell them.  I imagine my 2nd local is gonna struggle mightily with just regular 3d with no Dolby/Imax bonus on it...

 

None are directly listed as HFR, although I don't know if or how they would list that...

 

This is obviously less than supers sets, but Disney may have asked for this to goose the price/ticket until getting closer to open, forcing Christmas buyers to spend a lot.

 

PS - My Cinemark is suspending cheap Tuesday as well for this open and the rest of December, so we'll see how the affects the end of the month...

[M37]

17 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I mean at some point scale has to matter and Elvis full run is at the same level as Avatar 2's lower end OW.

 

I'm of the opinion that scale doesn't matter all that much (except in very high/low edge cases), as with comps you are trying to match pace - growth rate - so the larger initial sales burst is mostly baked into that ratio; its more important IMO to match the audience composition and corresponding expected sales pattern than relative size, in the way JWD was more like Fast & Furious, TGM like NTTD, than other $100M+ openers.

 

But its a moot point here, as looking back, no one but @katnisscinnaplex was really tracking Elvis until the last week, plus it had EA, so that may throw it off