The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[filmlover]

5 hours ago, datpepper said:

To follow up on this, I'm hearing Magic Mike 3's release is also going to be similarly scaled down. Less promotion than originally anticipated for it, potentially less theaters too. Starting to believe those "WBD has no money" rumors are true.

Yikes if true. Will be interesting to see how they handle the release of Shazam 2 or if they're scaling back on these former HBO Max originals that were lucky to get theatrical releases (Magic Mike 3 always had a ceiling as to how high it would go when XXL saw a notable decline and was almost 8 years ago).

[misterpepp]

80 for Brady is on sale Jan 12.

[filmlover]

A Man Called Otto expands to 3,500 theaters next weekend (it's expanding to 637 this weekend FYI) according to The Numbers. Sales have actually been pretty decent near me so it would be nice to have an adult-targeted movie do well for a change.

[crazymoviekid]

Based on my local M3GAN sales:

 

The Black Point Comp:

Thursday: $2.28M

Friday: $7.41M 

Opening Day: $9.69M

 

 

Smile Comp:

Thursday: $2.88M

Friday: $9.07M

Opening Day: $11.95M

Edited January 6, 2023 by crazymoviekid

[keysersoze123]

M3gan MTC2 previews final - 51895/187036 618988.62 1554 shows

 

Even more impressive than MTC1. definitely going over 3m. Probably even 3.25m. 

[Verrows]

6 hours ago, GOGODanca said:

the absolute state of warner brothers 

And by extension, the box office.

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

At 6:45, M3GAN 4173/21593 (119 showings) $48,022

 

Probably 5.25k range final. Will point toward $3-3.25M previews. Sales have been moving in that direction from last three-four days. Weekend should be $25M+, likely around $30M.

THU final - 5258/21593 (119 showings) $60,584

 

Previews should be $3.25M range

[Krissykins]

Loving these numbers for M3gan. 
 

First horror hit of the year already. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

9 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Loving these numbers for M3gan. 
 

First horror hit of the year already. 

Well it is the first movie of the year

[Krissykins]

11 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Well it is the first movie of the year

I said “hit”. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

29 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I said “hit”. 

...yes, it is the literal first movie of the year and subsequentle hit

[Krissykins]

1 minute ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

...yes, it is the literal first movie of the year and subsequentle hit

You’re missing the point. Again. It could’ve flopped. 
 

Last year there was only one hit horror film between January and the end of June. It was rough. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
House Party	T-7	Jax	3	7	0	0	672	0.00%
		Phx	2	5	1	1	585	0.17%
		Ral	3	6	0	0	734	0.00%
	Total		8	18	1	1	1,991	0.05%
Knock at Cabin	T-28	Jax	5	14	0	9	2,251	0.40%
		Phx	4	10	1	8	1,554	0.51%
		Ral	5	14	0	16	2,228	0.72%
	Total		14	38	1	33	6,033	0.55%
Left Behind	T-21	Jax	4	4	5	5	453	1.10%
		Phx	5	5	10	10	830	1.20%
		Ral	5	5	15	15	530	2.83%
	Total		14	14	30	30	1,813	1.65%
Otto	T-7	Jax	3	11	0	9	1,453	0.62%
		Phx	4	11	6	17	1,283	1.33%
		Ral	3	14	5	9	1,623	0.55%
	Total		10	36	11	35	4,359	0.80%

 

A Man Called Otto T-7 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 1.09x (547k)

 - Elvis - .1x (321k)

 

Knock at the Cabin T-28 comps

 - Nope - .19x (1.21m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
House Party	T-6	Jax	3	7	3	3	672	0.45%
		Phx	2	5	2	3	585	0.51%
		Ral	3	6	3	3	734	0.41%
	Total		8	18	8	9	1,991	0.45%
Knock at Cabin	T-27	Jax	5	14	0	9	2,251	0.40%
		Phx	4	10	2	10	1,554	0.64%
		Ral	5	14	0	16	2,228	0.72%
	Total		14	38	2	35	6,033	0.58%
Left Behind	T-20	Jax	4	4	-3	2	453	0.44%
		Phx	5	5	0	10	830	1.20%
		Ral	5	5	0	15	530	2.83%
	Total		14	14	-3	27	1,813	1.49%
Otto	T-6	Jax	3	11	4	13	1,453	0.89%
		Phx	4	11	1	18	1,283	1.40%
		Ral	4	17	8	17	1,767	0.96%
	Total		11	39	13	48	4,503	1.07%

 

A Man Called Otto T-6 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 1.043x (522k)

 - Elvis - .132x (423k)

 

Knock at the Cabin T-27 comps

 - Nope - missed

 - M3GAN - 1.842x

[M37]

21 hours ago, M37 said:

Daily increases for T-1

• Philly = +54%
• Sacto = +64%
• Jax/Pho/Ral = +83%

That's on average a larger increase in that period than Minions, where sales basically doubled by the T-0 check, so set expectations for final numbers accordingly, probably mid-$2s previews if not up to $3M, though should see a lower IM given the lingering holiday impact. Could follow Black Phone pretty closely for Thursday and weekend

 

Fwiw, I know there is going to be an inclination to point to reviews as the cause and effect for Megan's late surge - and there probably is some effect for sure - but I believe this late surge was coming regardless, given the audience and holidays limiting sales

Growth From T-1 to T-0

• Philly = +128%
• Sacto = +118%
• J/P/R = +82%

Trust in the growth rates!

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 12/30/2022 at 9:48 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Avatar 2	3,458	107,760	8.26%	57,296	636.30	50,464	2,365	46,657
Puss in Boots 2	3,408	74,596	4.29%	72,074	173.78	2,522	0	2,391
I Wanna Dance	3,113	41,255	0.28%	41,204	95.86	51	0	0
Babylon	2,996	35,674	-6.39%	35,630	80.54	44	0	0
Violent Night	2,251	25,760	6.19%	25,748	144.84	12	0	0
Black Panther 2	1,996	21,570	70.34%	21,481	275.81	89	0	50
The Fabelmans	1,032	8,346	13.46%	8,334	101.31	12	0	0
The Whale	570	7,689	1.14%	7,676	132.70	13	0	0
Strange World	933	5,854	-12.63%	5,834	61.68	20	0	8
The Menu	699	5,220	36.22%	5,220	177.00	0	0	0
Devotion	312	1,722	25.69%	1,722	131.39	0	0	0

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 12/30 Weekend

 

T-1 Week Showtimes Comps

M3gan - 29,092 (2,210 TC)

 - Black Phone - 30,912 (2,156)

 - Smile - 27,557 (2,196)

 - Violent Night - 29,124 (2,108)

 - Crawdads - 29,677 (2,121)

A Man Called Otto - 5,379 (394 TC)

 - Spoiler Alert - 5,097 (403)

 - Licorice Pizza - 5,632 (607)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

A Man Called Otto - 3,582 (1,324 TC)

 - Babylon - 3,851 (1,769)

 - Marry Me - 3,771 (1,845)

 - The Menu - 3,316 (1,418)

 

T-3 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime The Movie: Scarlet Bond - 2,335 (1,063 TC)

 - Crawdads - 2,901 (971)

 - The Bad Guys - 2,295 (876)

Missing - 907 (422 TC)

 - Beast - 872 (249)

 - The 355 - 1,082 (690)

 

T-4 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Left Behind: Rise of the Antichrist - 1,152 (1,142 TC)

 - Lost City - 1,250 (482)

 - I Heard the Bells - 908 (862)

 

T-5 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Knock at the Cabin - 3,573 (1,506 TC)

 - Nope - 7,656 (1,929)

Movie	TC	Shows	Change	Standard	Last PSA	PLF	IMAX	3D
Avatar 2	3,521	87,498	-18.80%	45,915	625.55	41,583	3,105	37,431
M3GAN	3,124	74,441		72,410		2,031	0	0
Puss in Boots 2	3,292	56,134	-24.75%	55,048	225.42	1,086	0	986
I Wanna Dance	2,673	27,337	-33.74%	27,301	95.29	36	0	0
Black Panther 2	2,040	19,832	-8.06%	19,773	238.56	59	0	41
Babylon	2,158	15,569	-56.36%	15,551	73.20	18	0	0
Violent Night	1,778	14,947	-41.98%	14,928	82.08	19	0	0
A Man Called Otto	560	8,890		8,878		12	0	0
The Whale	739	8,824	14.76%	8,812	178.47	12	0	0
The Fabelmans	912	6,786	-18.69%	6,779	124.27	7	0	0
The Old Way	503	6,172		6,154		18	0	0
The Menu	638	5,097	-2.36%	5,097	210.74	0	0	0
Strange World	328	2,082	-64.43%	2,080	85.66	2	0	2

 

USA Showtimes Sample - 1/6 Weekend

 

OW Showtimes Comps

M3gan - 74,441 (3,124 TC)

 - Candyman - 74,146 (3,113)

 - Violent Night - 68,420 (3,171)

 - Elvis - 75,093 (3,377)

A Man Called Otto - 8,890 (560 TC)

 - Belfast - 7,577 (516)

 - Summer of Soul - 7,766 (696)

The Old Way - 6,172 (503 TC)

 - The Gray Man - 6,113 (410)

 - The Contractor - 6,356 (478)

 

T-1 Week Showtimes Comps

Plane (1/11 EA) - 304 (304 TC)

Plane - 18,804 (1,527 TC)

 - Antlers - 17,679 (1,504)

 - King Richard - 18,783 (1,835)

 - Many Saints - 18,302 (1,823)

A Man Called Otto - 14,288 (1,376 TC)

 - Father Stu - 14,226 (1,388)

 - Redeeming Love - 13,519 (1,317)

 - Memory - 14,955 (1,210)

House Party - 8,468 (580 TC)

 - Spencer - 8,816 (714)

 - Family Camp - 8,851 (622)

 - Mrs. Harris - 7,844 (572)

The Devil Conspiracy - 7,198 (554 TC)

 - Courageous Legacy - 6,789 (648)

 - Breaking - 6,778 (515)

 - Glass Onion - 7,407 (617)

 

T-2 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime The Movie: Scarlet Bond - 2,385 (1,085 TC)

 - Resident Evil - 2,532 (936)

 - Beast - 2,330 (845)

Missing - 2,800 (1,182 TC)

 - Firestarter - 2,811 (1,150)

 - JJK - 2,855 (1,454)

 

T-3 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Left Behind: Rise of the Antichrist - 1,214 (1,203 TC)

 - Family Camp - 1,472 (509)

 - Redeeming Love - 1,403 (1,033)

 

T-4 Week Previews Showtimes Comps

Knock at the Cabin - 3,948 (1,668 TC)

 - M3GAN - 3,770 (1,545)

[Eric is Quiet]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-80-for-brady-and-m-night-shyamalans-knock-at-the-cabin/

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 1/6/23)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
1/13/2023	The Devil Conspiracy					Third Day Productions
1/13/2023	House Party	$4,000,000 – $9,000,000		$10,000,000 – $25,000,000		Warner Bros. Pictures
1/13/2023	A Man Called Otto (Wide Expansion)	$9,000,000 – $14,000,000		$30,000,000 – $60,000,000		Sony Pictures / Columbia
1/13/2023	Plane	$2,000,000 – $7,000,000	-50%	$5,000,000 – $22,000,000	-50%	Lionsgate
1/20/2023	Missing	$4,000,000 – $9,000,000		$10,000,000 – $24,000,000		Sony / Screen Gems
1/20/2023	The Son					Sony Pictures Classics
1/20/2023	Untitled Crunchyroll Film					Crunchyroll / Sony
1/25/2023	Pathaan					Yash Raj Films
1/27/2023	Distant					Universal Pictures
1/27/2023	Fear					Hidden Empire Film Group
2/3/2023	80 for Brady	$5,000,000 – $10,000,000		$17,000,000 – $38,000,000		Paramount Pictures
2/3/2023	Knock at the Cabin	$18,000,000 – $27,000,000		$44,000,000 – $81,000,000		Universal Pictures

[SchumacherFTW]

@Shawn You can update the untitled Crunchyroll movie to "That Time I got Reincarnated as a Slime". Yes, that is a real thing.

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, SchumacherFTW said:

@Shawn You can update the untitled Crunchyroll movie to "That Time I got Reincarnated as a Slime". Yes, that is a real thing.

 

Even funnier is that that series is one of the less weird Isekai out there compared to ... some others.

[Eric is Quiet]

12 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

@Shawn You can update the untitled Crunchyroll movie to "That Time I got Reincarnated as a Slime". Yes, that is a real thing.

I can't believe Crunchyroll stole my life story like this

[filmlover]

Fingers crossed Knock at the Cabin becomes another surprise hit for Universal.