The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Just for comparison’s sake, are you able to add NWH to that graph just for fun?

[ZackM]

2 hours ago, Menor Reborn said:

Not in love with that pace, but you did post around 6 hours earlier than yesterday. Is this an 18-hour pace or were yesterday's numbers just posted late? 

I didn't post 6 hours earlier, I posted 18 hours later.  Sometimes I'm sleeping when the run finishes and I can't get around to posting until I get home from work the following day.  I'll always note if the pace is something other than ~24hrs.  I'm planning on staying up late enough tonight to post today's update though.

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, ZackM said:

I didn't post 6 hours earlier, I posted 18 hours later.  Sometimes I'm sleeping when the run finishes and I can't get around to posting until I get home from work the following day.  I'll always note if the pace is something other than ~24hrs.  I'm planning on staying up late enough tonight to post today's update though.

Ah, so this is the pace for Sunday? That makes more sense.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Menor Reborn said:

Ah, so this is the pace for Sunday? That makes more sense.

I was surprised myself looking at that pace as that would be close to half of MTC2 pace if my current run finishes out. That would not be possible. if I have to guess it should be around 25K today. 

[Rorschach]

The Batman (Monday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Tuesday IMAX Fan First Event:

7:00 pm: 265/388 (66.8% sold)

[ZackM]

12 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I was surprised myself looking at that pace as that would be close to half of MTC2 pace if my current run finishes out. That would not be possible. if I have to guess it should be around 25K today. 

NWH did 25k on T-3.  I'm expecting something in the 16k to 18k range.  But the run will be done very shortly, so know soon enough.

[keysersoze123]

23 minutes ago, ZackM said:

NWH did 25k on T-3.  I'm expecting something in the 16k to 18k range.  But the run will be done very shortly, so know soon enough.

That would be very close to what MTC2 is looking. I guess MTC1 already had strong sales while MTC2 was way behind. 

[charlie Jatinder]

26 minutes ago, ZackM said:

NWH did 25k on T-3.  I'm expecting something in the 16k to 18k range.  But the run will be done very shortly, so know soon enough.

Eternals did 8.4k. I think it is doing 2.1x of Eternals, so around 18K ish seems fair.

Edited March 1, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Eric Prime]

On 2/27/2022 at 11:08 PM, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

The Batman Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	189	6931	36269	19.11%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 417

 

Comp

2.063x of Black Widow T-4 (27.24M)

2.778x of Eternals T-4 (26.38M)

0.340x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-4 (17.01M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.420x of Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker T-4 (weed...also 16.79M)

 

I mean...it's been doing what it's normally been doing. And what it's normally doing has been good, so...yeah, we're good. We'll see if tomorrow can do some crazy magic or whatever.

The Batman Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	199	7795	37371	20.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 864

 

Comp

2.132x of Black Widow T-3 (28.14M)

3.386x of Shang-Chi T-3 (29.8M)

4.431x of Venom 2 T-3 (51.4M)

2.844x of Eternals T-3 (27.02M)

0.364x of Spider-Man: NWH T-3 (18.2M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.452x of Star Wars: TROS (18.07M)

 

....hot damn.

[John Marston]

So what number are we looking at for Batman? 100-125m like the predictions? 

[ZackM]

A little over 20k today between all previews.

 

The Batman Alpha Chain Fan First Premiere Exclusively In IMAX Seat Report: T-1 days
2/28/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	182	183	48,120	56,898	84.57%
ATP
$23.32

 

 

The Batman Alpha Chain Investor Connect Screening Seat Report: T-2 days
2/28/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	205	206	31,114	39,928	77.93%
ATP
$19.22

 

 

The Batman Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	185	3	9	15	0
Seats Added	18,565	322	1,110	1,757	0
Seats Sold	17,954	10,307	5,992	6,998	4,203
2/28/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	429	5,570	180,253	954,188	18.89%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	12	85	236	463
ATP
$16.60

 

 

Thursday Only:

.272x NWH T-3

 

Thursday Only ATP Weighted:

.310x NWH T-3

 

All Previews:

.392x NWH T-3

 

All Previews ATP Weighted:

.489x NWH T-3

[Menor the Destroyer]

Ok. 18k pace in Alpha today for Thu. Let's say it adds another 150k for Thu only and maybe another 10k for previews, we will be looking at 439k all told, with fairly high ATP too, that most likely will comp to 26-27 million previews by itself. However MTC2 has been significantly weaker, if other chains are also, that may drag it down a bit, 24ish maybe? 

 

Edit: Yeah checking comps, unless the MTC2 ratio becomes a lot better (which seems possible from the bumps that Keyser has been alluding to) probably around 24 in previews. 

Edited March 1, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[Madhuvan]

28 minutes ago, John Marston said:

So what number are we looking at for Batman? 100-125m like the predictions? 

150m weekend.

I am glad I remained firm. 24-25m is pretty much done deal. I think 25m+ is also very possible.

[charlie Jatinder]

@ZackM can you run FRI & SAT when you wake up tomorrow.

[Porthos]

17 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

150m weekend.

I am glad I remained firm. 24-25m is pretty much done deal. I think 25m+ is also very possible.

 

 

Spoiler

I haven't actually done the track yet, but couldn't pass up the chance to make this meme. 

 

Edited March 1, 2022 by Porthos
updated with actual quote and not paraphrase

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Menor Reborn said:

Ok. 18k pace in Alpha today for Thu. Let's say it adds another 150k for Thu only and maybe another 10k for previews, we will be looking at 439k all told, with fairly high ATP too, that most likely will comp to 26-27 million previews by itself. However MTC2 has been significantly weaker, if other chains are also, that may drag it down a bit, 24ish maybe? 

 

Edit: Yeah checking comps, unless the MTC2 ratio becomes a lot better (which seems possible from the bumps that Keyser has been alluding to) probably around 24 in previews. 

MTC2 did not do as much as I thought but still it is quite good. 

 

The Batman MTC2

Tue - 3618/4151 57356.50 14 shows

Wed - 28665/38877 419606.00 183 shows

Thu - 94785/622447 1258135.15 4468 shows

Fri - 97331/759620 1219091.79 4953 shows // run started around 3PM PST and took close to 3 hours. 

 

I think I am expecting another big bump tomorrow. Many shows were added and they take time to fill out. Another 32K between tue/wednesday shows as well. MTC2 still has to pace up to catch up to a good ratio relative to Alpha. 

 

Edit: Added Tue/Wed BO. 

Edited March 1, 2022 by keysersoze123

[Porthos]

On 2/27/2022 at 11:19 PM, Porthos said:

 

The Batman Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	297	30769	36790	6021	16.37%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

368

 

T-4 Unadjusted Comps 

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	130.21		305	4625		0/193	22688/27313	16.93%		18.00m
NTTD	353.55		157	1703		0/145	20757/22460	7.58%		21.92m
Dune	451.35		130	1334		0/79	10936/12270	10.87%		23.01m
ET	198.06		191	3040		0/101	1298/15968	19.04%		18.82m
NWH	29.34		774	20522		1/325	18598/39120	52.46%		14.67m

 

 

Tuesday Sales:        706/815     [86.63% sold]    [+5 tickets]

Wednesday Sales: 1075/1301  [82.63% sold]  [+14 tickets]

Thursday Sales:   4240/34674  [12.23% sold] [+349 tickets]

---

Regal:  1568/11645  [13.47% sold] [+96 tickets]

Matinee: 289/4893   [5.91% | 4.80% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Man, I don't even effin' know (locally that is, at least compared to Philly/Denver).  A decent enough Sat-Sun rise, but still not enough to keep the current paces against Eternals and Black Widow. They only dropped a small amount, mind.  Still.  See what tomorrow brings when the review embargos finally lift for real, I suppose.

 

The Batman Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	0	324	31752	38521	6769	17.57%

 

Total Showings Reaching Theater Cap Today	1
Total Showings Added Today	27
Total Seats Added Today	1731
Total Seats Sold Today	748

 

T-3 Unadjusted Comps 

	%		Sold  T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	132.88		469	5094		0/193	22219/27313	18.65%		9196	73.61%		18.37m
SC	246.95		335	2741		0/156	19111/21852	12.54%		5847	115.77%		21.73m
LTBC	222.88		576	3037		0/216	28173/31210	9.73%		7712	87.77%		25.85m
NTTD	359.86		178	1881		0/157	21272/23153	8.12%		3737	181.13%		22.31m
Dune	449.17		173	1507		0/92	11672/13179	11.43%		2915	232.21%		22.91m
ET	196.95		397	3437		0/118	13711/17148	20.04%		6409	105.62%		18.71m
NWH	31.56		925	21447		1/340	18316/39763	53.94%		28183	24.02%		15.78m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Batman's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Tuesday Sales:        715/815     [87.73% sold]    [+9 tickets]

Wednesday Sales: 1088/1301  [83.63% sold]  [ +13 tickets]

Thursday Sales:   4966/36405  [13.64% sold] [+726 tickets]

---

Regal:  1716/11645  [14.74% sold] [+148 tickets]

Matinee: 321/4893   [6.56% | 4.74% of all tickets sold]

 

=====

 

A good, but not fantastic, review bump for 20m+ numbers needed.  On the one hand, Black Widow went up more than a bit. But a reasonably strong Monday for Eternals meant that comp actually fell a tiny bit.  Still, fairly decent bump.  Just not out of this world.  

 

Added Shang-Chi and Let There Be Carnage, because I obviously don't have enough to do here.  Well that and I wanted to see the later arriving curves of SC and LTBC. Fairly decent against SC though still under.  LTBC though is gonna rapidly chunk into that comp as it starts to beast out.

 

Finally, spent a while working with stuff that @Derby Legion requested and making it Not Look Terrible on mobile.  Added a column that gave a movie's final ticket sales locally and what the current percentage of Batsy is against it.  I'll let folks figure out on their own just how useful that is.  No more requests for more data though, as I plum don' have no mo' room anymore. 👍

 

So... We'll see.  Honestly was hoping for 800+, so came close to what I personally was looking for, but no cigar.  Sacto just might be under-performing/have too large of a hole to dig out of.

Edited March 1, 2022 by Porthos

[Cooper Legion]

BW comp increasing is big game still, pretty strong evidence of the review bump being noticeable vs a normal final week Monday acceleration.

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, Derby Legion said:

BW comp increasing is big game still, pretty strong evidence of the review bump being noticeable vs a normal final week Monday acceleration.

 

And there's absolutely room for growth in good seats at good/decent showtimes, which is always a plus for these situations.  

[Old Spice]

HUGE Monday review bump in Salt Lake City for The Bat as my theater saw its biggest day of the whole run. I'm expecting more showtimes to be added later this morning. Here are the Thursday-Saturday totals:

 

Thursday: 261 (+36)

Friday: 274 (+58)

Saturday: 163 (+19)

Total tix sold today: 113

 

My comps are very limited, but the Thursday number is 1.3x Eternals final and doesn't include any fan screenings as this is a non-PLF.

 

Let's see if the momentum continues today. 

Edited March 1, 2022 by A Star is Orm
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