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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

By Cap, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
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Posted by XXRDJisDoctorDoom,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

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Eric Prime Global Phenomenon

Eric Prime

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

The Quorum had GotG3 at 4% unaided awareness (given as part of an open ended question as opposed to normal awareness prompted by film name, tagline and poster) a week ago. Herren was on a podcast doing interviews about a new study commissioned by cinema foundation 


@Eric Foreman seems to be keeping track of qorum data so I'll ping him. 

Don't think I noticed any of that stuff. Last I saw was this blog post where Guardians had 6.7% unaided awareness.

 

https://thequorum.com/this-week-in-unaided-awareness-some-good-news-for-barbie/

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

What are the odds that this actually opens below the 1st movie?

it has to pull in a Ant 3 in the final week. Unlikely I would say. But chances of opening below Ant 3 are of course lot higher but I still see this having better weekend run next week. WOM among fans will be good. 

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oenri Straight-to-DVD

oenri

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

it has to pull in a Ant 3 in the final week. Unlikely I would say. But chances of opening below Ant 3 are of course lot higher but I still see this having better weekend run next week. WOM among fans will be good. 

Are you talking about 3 or 4 day weekend for Ant-Man? Because I am not sure if it can open above 120M. And even talking about WOM, it can easily have an A- cinemascore, which would be fine but not really that good.

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, oenri said:

Are you talking about 3 or 4 day weekend for Ant-Man? Because I am not sure if it can open above 120M. And even talking about WOM, it can easily have an A- cinemascore, which would be fine but not really that good.

I always do like of like comps unless I explicitly state otherwise. Since Guardians is opening during normal weekend and so no 4 day comps. 

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Sckathian Indie Sensation

Sckathian

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, WorkingonaName said:

A tiktok trend is the only thing that can save this movie. 

Not sure if you're half joking or not but I completely agree with the statement. It probably needs that and maybe its just not hitting that audience.

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el sid Box Office Gold

el sid

Posted
Posted (edited)

GotG3 counted today for Thursday, May 4. 5 days to go.

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 472 (10 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 648 (14 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 110 (18 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 96 (8 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 181 (14 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 900 (27 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.490 (36 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 3.879.
Comps (all three films counted on Monday of the release week = 2 days left for GotG3): Wakanda Forever (28M) had 6.765 sold tickets,
Morbius (5.7M) had 1.454
and SC (8.8M) had 2.561 sold tickets.
Thor 4 (29M) had 7.843 sold tickets on Tuesday of the release week (= 3 days left for GotG3).

It should reach more than 2/3 of the presales of Wakanda Forever which would mean ca. 20M from previews. From the other three comps it looks a bit worse than 20M (with the jumps that I guess it will have till Monday respectively Tuesday) but not by much.
Of course that's not bad but so far no major improvement.

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oenri Straight-to-DVD

oenri

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, el sid said:

GotG3 counted today for Thursday, May 4. 5 days to go.

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 472 (10 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 648 (14 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 110 (18 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 96 (8 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 181 (14 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 900 (27 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.490 (36 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 3.879.
Comps (all three films counted on Monday of the release week = 2 days left for GotG3): Wakanda Forever (28M) had 6.765 sold tickets,
Morbius (5.7M) had 1.454
and SC (8.8M) had 2.561 sold tickets.
Thor 4 (29M) had 7.843 sold tickets on Tuesday of the release week (= 3 days left for GotG3).

It should reach more than 2/3 of the presales of Wakanda Forever which would mean ca. 20M from previews. From the other three comps it looks a bit worse than 20M (with the jumps that I guess it will have till Monday respectively Tuesday) but not by much.
Of course that's not bad but so far no major improvement.

Would this be enough for 120M weekend?

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, GOGODanca said:

What are the odds that this actually opens below the 1st movie?

 

5 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Can Guardians dip slightly below 100 mln?


I’m probably lower than most, and right now my 80/90% confidence lower bound is around $15M Thur & 6x = $90M.  But ask me again in a few days once the effect of review bump becomes more apparent, that floor may not hold (or could go up)

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Napoleon Summer Tentpole

Napoleon

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Can Guardians dip slightly below 100 mln?

No way. That would be the worst case scenario, which Guardians 3 will easily avoid with positive reviews, an aggressive marketing and a marketplace not so crowded anymore. It should do very well in walk-ups.

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PlatnumRoyce Box Office Gold

PlatnumRoyce

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Eric Foreman said:

Don't think I noticed any of that stuff. Last I saw was this blog post where Guardians had 6.7% unaided awareness.

 

https://thequorum.com/this-week-in-unaided-awareness-some-good-news-for-barbie/

huh, weird. I'd probably just go with that image over podcast comments made in response to host's questions. I thought that number sounded slightly low but I guess it could be random variation. 
 

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