The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[M37]

Got a super early morning ahead, so won’t see late MTC numbers, but based on data in hand …
 

 

$7.3 (give or take)

 

[filmlover]

4 hours ago, Shawn said:

Transformers tracking from Deadline (which is likely via NRG, but not confirmed) is definitely a head-scratcher to me. I'm raising the range on BOP tomorrow, but not nearly that much. Might end up landing in between when it actually opens, but I'm still just very concerned with competition + brand overexposure -- unless something else is going to significantly disappoint and balance things out. But that would surprise me at the moment.

tbh Transformers seems like the most review-dependent out of all these aspiring blockbusters over the next month. Decent reviews: a $40M+ opening should be easy to clear. Mediocre or worse reviews: yeah, total flop incoming.

[Tinalera]

Spiderverse 2

Thurs June 1 Fri June 2 (T-14)

Vancouver and Calgary Canada

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouv	Thurs	3	9	363	1290	1653	0.2196
	Fri	3	10	256	1743	1999	0.1280
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	4	14	205	2695	2900	0.0706
	Fri	4	17	252	3447	3699	0.0681

Antman (not really good as its T-21ish but still slightly interesting, will have a better comp next time I do Vancouver/Calgary)

 

Antman Quantumania

Thurs Feb 16 and Fri Feb 17(taken Jan 26)

Calgary Alberta Canada

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	3	18	831	2661	3492	0.2379
	Fri	3	20	534	3492	4026	0.1326
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	4	23	375	6072	4884	0.0767
	Fri	4	29	231	4499	6173	0.0374

 

GOTG 3 1-14

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouv	Thurs	4	21	613	3698	4311	0.1421
	Fri	4	26	527	4517	5044	0.1044
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	4	21	458	3708	4166	0.1099
	Fri	4	25	294	3698	3992	0.0736

 

Total seat availablity (Antman T-21, Gotg 3 T-14)     V T  V F  C T  C F Spider 1653 1999 2900 3699 Antman 4311 5044 4166 3992 diff -2658 -3045 -1266 -293           Spider 1653 1999 2900 3699 Gotg 3 3492 4026 4884 6173   -1839 -2027 -1984 -2474

[screambaby]

Yeah i got the budgets for  fast and furious and transformers mixed up folks..but even those will pale in comparisons if indy 5 tanks

[Porthos]

-edit nm--

Edited May 19, 2023 by Porthos

[John Marston]

wrong thread

Edited May 19, 2023 by John Marston

[filmlover]

Theater counts for next weekend:

 

The Little Mermaid: 4,200

About My Father: 2,300

The Machine: 2,300

 

Theater counts: Fast X races into 4,046 theaters, but Guardians still widest in the galaxy - The Numbers (the-numbers.com)

 

I honestly have no idea what The Machine is.

[XXR & Friends]

I've learned ancient Sith magic to deal with the the interloping discussions on this threads....

 

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Little Mermaid Alamo Drafthouse

 

 

T-6 Wednesday	3 Showings	287		321
T-7 Thursday	156 Showings	4539	+399	23074	ATP:	16.41

 

0.806

Avatar 2 T-7

13.70M

 

T-8 Friday

211 Showings

6569

+435

32555

ATP:

15.75

 

0.882

Avatar 2 T-8

31.93M

 

T-9 Saturday

218 Showings

6589

+341

33119

 

0.777

Avatar 2 T-9

34.42M

 

T-10 Sunday

200 Showings

4470

+287

30616

 

0.829

Avatar 2 T-10

30.32M

Something changed. Seeing some formatting changes. 

[Inceptionzq]

10 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Something changed. Seeing some formatting changes. 

Yeah been wanting to do this for a while. Just updated it to make it a lot easier and faster to transfer from spreadsheet to here.

[vafrow]

2 hours ago, vafrow said:

Walk ups at my local have been pretty decent tonight. The day started at 76 sold and as of close of early shows at 116. The late shows should push it above 125, where John Wick 4 landed.

 

What's most impressive though is that a new theatre opened here about 25 minutes away, and probably the next closest theatre to my area. Literally opened yesterday. That likely drew away some business. 

 

I'll try and check the final totals at the end of the night.

 

 

 

It looks like things will settle at 137. Using John Wicks 125 tickets as a comp gets to $9.75M as a Thursday preview. Using GOTG3 gets a $9.1M preview. Based on others tracking, Fast X is likely over indexing here for some reason, but we'll see what things settle at tomorrow.

[keysersoze123]

Fast X MTC1 previews - 132199/812816 2172174.61 4588 shows

 

I must say average final day. Worse walkups than last one. But it did slightly up from last one and it does get benefit of slightly higher ticket prices plus MTC3 was not fully back in terms of its box office. I wont have any kind of MTC2 number until morning but normally these movies do very well with walkups over there. I am assuming 3.7m between 2 MTC and it should at least hit 7.2m. At best 7.4m looking at how it has underperformed elsewhere. 

[charlie Jatinder]

31 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Fast X MTC1 previews - 132199/812816 2172174.61 4588 shows

 

I must say average final day. Worse walkups than last one. But it did slightly up from last one and it does get benefit of slightly higher ticket prices plus MTC3 was not fully back in terms of its box office. I wont have any kind of MTC2 number until morning but normally these movies do very well with walkups over there. I am assuming 3.7m between 2 MTC and it should at least hit 7.2m. At best 7.4m looking at how it has underperformed elsewhere. 

idk. from just mtc1, will say $7.7-8.1M

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Spider-man across the spiderverse MTC1 Previews(T-15) - 72042/736262 1292596.46 3921 show // +2363

 

Comps

A2 - 74607 // T-14. So this should be on par

JWD - 63,886 // T-13. So this is ahead

Spider-man across the spiderverse MTC1 Previews(T-14) - 74637/736262 1342702.79 3921 shows // +2595

 

Now new comps. Similar to A2 but It wont be able to sustain that pace until closer to release. 

[DAJK]

Canada typically underindexes for the F&F franchise, but 7M comp looks tough here. Closer to 6 equivalent in BC. 

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mermaid MTC1

Wednesday - 14163/35113 304404.79 154 shows +498

Previews(T-8) - 49414/915600 854249.60 5587 shows +3241

Friday - 53073/1038430 878058.33 5729 shows +5012

Mermaid MTC1

Wednesday - 14666/34974 316142.34 153 shows +503

Previews(T-7) -  52726/916969 913146.02 5592 shows  +3312

Friday - 58139/1039121 961781.89 5731 shows +5066

 

We are into final week now. At least the pace is accelerating. Let us see if this can pull in a Venom kind of final week. 

[keysersoze123]

When are the reviews out for Mermaid. I expect it to be mixed but still be a catalyst as awareness is boosted once we see reviews at RT. 

[screambaby]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Mermaid MTC1

Wednesday - 14666/34974 316142.34 153 shows +503

Previews(T-7) -  52726/916969 913146.02 5592 shows  +3312

Friday - 58139/1039121 961781.89 5731 shows +5066

 

We are into final week now. At least the pace is accelerating. Let us see if this can pull in a Venom kind of final week. 

May 22nd 9 am Eastern  is when the  embargo lifts

Edited May 19, 2023 by screambaby

[ThomasNicole]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

When are the reviews out for Mermaid. I expect it to be mixed but still be a catalyst as awareness is boosted once we see reviews at RT. 

Monday morning, should be mixed on MC but RT can ended up decent like 70%, lots of “best live actions” type of reactions, that can help as well

[keysersoze123]

15 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Fast X MTC1 Friday - 81851/1169697 1414301.81 6570 shows +15985

 

Good day. 

Fast X MTC1 Friday - 115147/1169807 1944551.39 6614 shows +33296

 

If previews walkups were not good, final day presales for friday is also not good. Its going to have lower friday than F9 for sure. Comfortably lower. Low 60s OW I would say.