The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[jeffthehat]

30 minutes ago, M37 said:

Its both amazing and frustrating to me that a group of volunteer internet strangers can consistently beat forecasts by “the trades” - ie the people who get paid to be accurate (excluding @Shawn & co, who are mostly on point). Transformers and Spidey are being forecasted in nearly the same range, when there could be as much as a 3x discrepancy!

 

I know there are complicating factors with studio relationships, film contracts and such, but the market inefficiency in allocating a fixed resource (screens) based on inaccurate forecasts (both too high and too low) is just … baffling. How much money is being left on the table by being reactive rather than proactive?

Been lurking for months, just wanna piggy back on this and say you guys do phenomenal work here. Baffling to see how bad the trades are when compared to a bunch of anonymous volunteers. 

[Mulder]

32 minutes ago, M37 said:

Its both amazing and frustrating to me that a group of volunteer internet strangers can consistently beat forecasts by “the trades” - ie the people who get paid to be accurate (excluding @Shawn & co, who are mostly on point). Transformers and Spidey are being forecasted in nearly the same range, when there could be as much as a 3x discrepancy!

 

I know there are complicating factors with studio relationships, film contracts and such, but the market inefficiency in allocating a fixed resource (screens) based on inaccurate forecasts (both too high and too low) is just … baffling. How much money is being left on the table by being reactive rather than proactive?

Back when I worked for a certain big theater chain in 2017, I got to see their summer forecast for 2017 and I knew it was going to be hilariously off. I imagine that problem has only gotten worse.

[JpTransformers]

24 minutes ago, M37 said:

SV abrindo para $ 127M e TF para $ 42M (127/42 = 3x), apesar de suas previsões de negociações serem algo como $ 78 e $ 80- $ 90

 

Quantos cinemas estão economizando espaço na tela para o TF na próxima semana em detrimento do carregamento do SV com base nessas expectativas (incorretas)? 

it's really curious 

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Menor Reborn said:

NWH did have it I thought

 

Nope, not a $5 all-in PLF (or 2d) ticket - that was new for 2023.

[ringedmortality]

26 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Back when I worked for a certain big theater chain in 2017, I got to see their summer forecast for 2017 and I knew it was going to be hilariously off. I imagine that problem has only gotten worse.

 

What was the summer forecast back then

[Mulder]

3 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

What was the summer forecast back then

Its been a few years so I don't remember everything but two big stand-outs I found hilarious was they had Wonder Woman pegged for a 70-75 million opening (Actually opened to 103) and Spider-Man: Homecoming for a 90-95 million opening (Actually opened to 117).

[M37]

27 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Back when I worked for a certain big theater chain in 2017, I got to see their summer forecast for 2017 and I knew it was going to be hilariously off. I imagine that problem has only gotten worse.

Honestly … ditto. I would ignore internals and come to this very thread to get a sense of how a big release was trending to properly plan ahead 

 

And I’ve asked around, and I haven’t seen any MTC internals have SV over $100M, hence the lower screen & show count. (And probably why I’m on this rant) 

 

I at least gave them the heads up though 😉

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

The pace of sales is on a very different scale 

I expect they are from a chain we don't track & aren't available on atomtickets, so pace won't be big there.

[Eric is Quiet]

On 5/30/2023 at 12:07 PM, Prince Eric said:

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	123	3396	23838	14.25%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 391

 

Comp - T-3

2.434x of Sonic 2 (15.21M)

1.092x of Jurassic World 3 (19.65M)

0.411x of Thor 4 (11.91M)

2.121x of Black Adam (16.12M)

0.921x of Avatar 2 (15.66M)

0.571x of Ant-Man 3 (9.99M)

0.642x of Guardians 3 (11.24M)

1.049x of the Little Mermaid (10.8M)

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	123	4092	23838	17.17%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 696

 

Comp - T-2

2.307x of Sonic 2 (14.42M)

1.169x of Jurassic World 3 (21.04M)

0.443x of Thor 4 (12.86M)

2.123x of Black Adam (16.14M)

1.003x of Avatar 2 (17.05M)

0.632x of Ant-Man 3 (11.07M)

0.706x of Guardians 3 (12.35M)

1.110x of The Little Mermaid (11.43M)

 

Golly gee whiz, this sure is a lot of tickets.

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, Prince Eric said:

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	123	4092	23838	17.17%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 696

 

Comp - T-2

2.307x of Sonic 2 (14.42M)

1.169x of Jurassic World 3 (21.04M)

0.443x of Thor 4 (12.86M)

2.123x of Black Adam (16.14M)

1.003x of Avatar 2 (17.05M)

0.632x of Ant-Man 3 (11.07M)

0.706x of Guardians 3 (12.35M)

1.110x of The Little Mermaid (11.43M)

 

Golly gee whiz, this sure is a lot of tickets.

weirdly philly not overindexing as it should. wonder if african-american community don't prefer animation in general but even something like Sonic & Black adam comp is too low.

[Eric is Quiet]

On 5/30/2023 at 12:48 PM, Prince Eric said:

The Flash Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	98	1381	18907	7.30%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 52

 

Comp - T-17

0.304x of The Batman (6.57M)

0.910x of Jurassic World 3 (16.37M)

0.282x of Thor 4 (8.18M)

0.857x of Avatar 2 (14.56M)

0.352x of Ant-Man 3 (6.16M)

0.452x of Guardians 3 (7.91M)

The Flash Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	98	1421	18907	7.52%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 40

 

Comp - T-16

0.305x of The Batman (6.58M)

0.906x of Jurassic World 3 (16.3M)

0.280x of Thor 4 (8.13M)

2.500x of Black Adam (18.98M)

0.841x of Avatar 2 (14.29M)

0.355x of Ant-Man 3 (6.22M)

0.454x of Guardians 3 (7.94M)

[TwoMisfits]

31 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

weirdly philly not overindexing as it should. wonder if african-american community don't prefer animation in general but even something like Sonic & Black adam comp is too low.

 

GA spent the money on Mermaid - rough for families to spend 2 weeks in a row...

[Eric is Quiet]

On 5/30/2023 at 12:21 PM, Eric 2099 said:

The Boogeyman Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	26	105	2993	3.51%

 

Comp - T-3

1.419x of X (624K)

0.282x of The Black Phone (847K)

1.875x of The Invitation (1.45M)

1.265x of Barbarian (1.07M)

0.330x of Smile (660K)

0.410x of Knock at the Cabin (595K)

2.187x of The Pope's Exorcist (1.86M)

The Boogeyman Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	26	150	2993	5.01%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 45

 

Comp - T-2

1.613x of X (710K)

0.307x of The Black Phone (920K)

2.206x of The Invitation (1.71M)

1.136x of Barbarian (966K)

0.300x of Smile (600K)

0.475x of Knock at the Cabin (688K)

2.586x of The Pope's Exorcist (2.2M)

[Eric is Quiet]

38 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

weirdly philly not overindexing as it should. wonder if african-american community don't prefer animation in general but even something like Sonic & Black adam comp is too low.

The first Spider-Verse actually didn't skew very Black believe it or not. Only 16% African-American compared to 43% Caucasian and 21% Latino. The ratios should be quite different with this movie, considering there are less Caucasian viewers in general, but it is peculiar.

[Flip]

Just anecdotally at some theaters I’ve been checking all the theaters during the good showtimes (before 11 PM) are basically close to sold out with only really the bad seats left, so the  

weekend presales are also significantly strong as people (I’m one of them) want to wait for better seating. And if they don’t add as much showings as the movie necessitates the OW might not reach its true potential but it will be for the better for its legs

[Flip]

7 minutes ago, Eric 2099 said:

The first Spider-Verse actually didn't skew very Black believe it or not. Only 16% African-American compared to 43% Caucasian and 21% Latino. The ratios should be quite different with this movie, considering there are less Caucasian viewers in general, but it is peculiar.

So it had 20% Asian then, above African Americans?

[keysersoze123]

50 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

weirdly philly not overindexing as it should. wonder if african-american community don't prefer animation in general but even something like Sonic & Black adam comp is too low.

These days almost everything under indexes at Phily. I guess they went all in on Mermaid. 

[ogkalu]

6 minutes ago, Flip said:

So it had 20% Asian then, above African Americans?

15% Asian

[Flopped]

31 minutes ago, Eric 2099 said:

The Boogeyman Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	26	150	2993	5.01%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 45

 

Comp - T-2

1.613x of X (710K)

0.307x of The Black Phone (920K)

2.206x of The Invitation (1.71M)

1.136x of Barbarian (966K)

0.300x of Smile (600K)

0.475x of Knock at the Cabin (688K)

2.586x of The Pope's Exorcist (2.2M)

Based on these figures what do you predict for previews and the weekend? 

[TwoMisfits]

50 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

These days almost everything under indexes at Phily. I guess they went all in on Mermaid. 

 

And even then, as of today, Spidey has outsold Mermaid in Philly at the same point in time...