The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Krissykins]

$2m previews for Cocaine Bear!

[Eric the Minion]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-john-wick-chapter-4-plus-creed-iii-scream-vi-and-shazam-fury-of-the-gods-updates/

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 2/24/23)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
3/3/2023	Creed III	$29,000,000 – $36,000,000	+5%	$75,000,000 – $105,000,000	+5%	MGM
3/3/2023	Demon Slayer: To the Swordsmith Village	$6,000,000 – $11,000,000	-12%	$10,000,000 – $21,000,000	-12%	Crunchyroll / Sony
3/3/2023	Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre	$2,000,000+	NEW	$5,000,000+	NEW	Lionsgate
3/10/2023	65	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000		$26,000,000 – $47,000,000		Sony / Columbia Pictures
3/10/2023	Champions	$4,000,000 – $9,000,000		$14,000,000 – $44,000,000		Focus Features
3/10/2023	Scream VI	$32,000,000 – $41,000,000	+6%	$72,000,000 – $97,000,000	+6%	Paramount Pictures
3/17/2023	Inside					Focus Features
3/17/2023	Moving On					Roadside Attractions
3/17/2023	Shazam! Fury of the Gods	$35,000,000 – $44,000,000	-17%	$82,000,000 – $115,000,000	-17%	Warner Bros. Pictures
3/24/2023	John Wick: Chapter 4	$44,000,000 – $53,000,000		$122,000,000 – $155,000,000		Lionsgate

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 2/23/2023 at 9:01 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Creed III	T-7	Jax	5	26	8	101	3,960	2.55%
		Phx	6	16	11	95	2,534	3.75%
		Ral	8	21	8	96	2,743	3.50%
	Total		19	63	27	292	9,237	3.16%
Creed III (EA)	T-6	Jax	5	8	7	71	2,172	3.27%
		Phx	1	2	2	17	618	2.75%
		Ral	2	2	3	40	412	9.71%
	Total		8	12	12	128	3,202	4.00%
Creed III (Pre)	T-4	Jax	1	1	0	10	389	2.57%
	Total		1	1	0	10	389	2.57%
Demon Slayer 2	T-8	Jax	5	17	10	305	2,730	11.17%
(OD)		Phx	4	13	45	378	2,412	15.67%
		Ral	7	23	15	345	2,664	12.95%
	Total		16	53	70	1,028	7,806	13.17%
Scream VI	T-14	Jax	5	23	24	164	3,350	4.90%
		Phx	5	17	14	269	2,894	9.30%
		Ral	8	33	8	178	4,211	4.23%
	Total		18	73	46	611	10,455	5.84%
Shazam 2	T-21	Jax	5	56	6	73	9,734	0.75%
		Phx	6	29	7	97	6,134	1.58%
		Ral	8	53	4	107	7,666	1.40%
	Total		19	138	17	277	23,534	1.18%

 

Creed III EA T-6 comps

 - NTTD EA - .656x (722k)

 - Bullet Train EA - 1.753x (2.19m)

 - Elvis EA - 1.506x (452k)

 

Creed III T-7 comps

 - Elvis - .837x (2.68m)

 - No Time to Die - .426x (2.21m)

 - Dune - .355x (1.81m)

 - F9 - .303x (2.15m)

 

Demon Slayer 2 T-8 comps

 - MHA - missed

 - JJK 0 - missed

 - Dragon Ball Z - 1.266x (5.45m)

 - Slime - missed

 

Scream VI T-14 comps

 - Nope - 1.892x (12.11m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 7.64x (11.07m)

 - Black Adam - missed

 - Suicide Squad - 2.474x (10.14m)

 - F9 - 1.07x (7.61m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 1.292x (7.75m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.792x (7.44m)

 - Morbius - 1.346x (7.67m)

 

I added a few more comps after noticing that they were all closer to ticket sales numbers and pretty consistent in comps.  

 

Shazam 2 T-21 comps

 - Sonic 2 - 1.428x (7.11m)

 - Black Widow - .21x (2.72m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - .09x (1.58m)

 - Eternals - .28x (2.67m)

 - F9 - 1.018x (7.23m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Creed III	T-6	Jax	5	26	12	113	3,960	2.85%
		Phx	6	17	7	102	2,573	3.96%
		Ral	8	20	18	114	2,624	4.34%
	Total		19	63	37	329	9,157	3.59%
Creed III (EA)	T-5	Jax	5	8	21	92	2,172	4.24%
		Phx	1	2	5	22	618	3.56%
		Ral	2	2	6	46	412	11.17%
	Total		8	12	32	160	3,202	5.00%
Creed III (Pre)	T-3	Jax	1	1	0	10	389	2.57%
	Total		1	1	0	10	389	2.57%
Demon Slayer 2	T-7	Jax	5	17	28	333	2,730	12.20%
(OD)		Phx	4	13	27	405	2,412	16.79%
		Ral	8	23	45	387	2,580	15.00%
	Total		16	52	100	1,125	7,722	14.57%
Scream VI	T-13	Jax	5	27	18	182	3,748	4.86%
		Phx	5	17	22	291	2,894	10.06%
		Ral	8	33	6	184	4,211	4.37%
	Total		18	77	46	657	10,853	6.05%
Shazam 2	T-20	Jax	5	56	10	83	9,734	0.85%
		Phx	6	29	2	99	6,134	1.61%
		Ral	8	53	9	116	7,666	1.51%
	Total		19	138	21	298	23,534	1.27%

 

Creed III EA T-5 comps

 - NTTD EA - missed

 - Bullet Train EA - 1.86x (2.33m)

 - Elvis EA - 1.882x (565k)

 

Creed III T-6 comps

 - Elvis - .906x (2.9m)

 - No Time to Die - missed

 - Dune - missed

 - F9 - .316x (2.24m)

 

Demon Slayer 2 T-7 comps

 - MHA - missed

 - JJK 0 - missed

 - Dragon Ball Z - 1.287x (5.54m)

 - Slime - 18.75x (4.69m)

 

Scream VI T-13 comps

 - Nope - 1.877x (12.01m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 8.213x (11.91m)

 - Black Adam - missed

 - Suicide Squad - 2.461x (10.09m)

 - F9 - 1.027x (7.29m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 1.112x (6.67m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - Morbius - 1.309x (7.46m)

 

Shazam 2 T-20 comps

 - Sonic 2 - 1.355x (6.75m)

 - Black Widow - .209x (2.75m)

 - Ant-Man 3 - .094x (1.65m)

 - Eternals - missed

 - F9 - 0.88x (6.22m)

[Eric the Minion]

Quorum Updates

Champions T-15: 22.85% Awareness, 5.4 Interest

Inside T-22: 18.87%, 5.41

Moving On T-22: 22.61%, 5.33

Shazam! Fury of the Gods T-22: 49.92%, 5.74

John Wick: Chapter 4 T-29: 57.02%, 6.74

On A Wing and a Prayer T-43: 11.85%, 4.97

Love Again T-78: 16.74%, 4.94

The Flash T-113: 42.16%, 5.8

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1 T-141: 33.99%, 5.98

 

Cocaine Bear T-1: 48.94% Awareness, 5.98 Interest

Final Awareness: 86% chance of 10M, 54% chance of 30M

Final Interest: 69% chance of 10M, 46% chance of 20M

Original - Low Awareness: 100% chance of 10M

Original - Low Interest: 83% chance of 5M, 50% chance of 10M

[Maggie]

Spoiler

 

huh why so low for John Wick? I think it can do something like 70M OW. No way it's gonna drop from the 57M, the predecessor did.

[Ronin46]

7 minutes ago, Maggie said:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

huh why so low for John Wick? I think it can do something like 70M OW. No way it's gonna drop from the 57M, the predecessor did.

 

Low on Scream, Creed and the other franchise in John Wick. I guess Shawn starts off fairly conservative with it. Scream has gone up 2 times already from his early estimate. Creed has had 1 increase. I think 45-55 for Scream, Creed 40-45 and John Wick around 65.

[misterpepp]

Big George Foreman tix on sale Feb 27

[El Squibbonator]

6 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

The tracking right now is pointing to a lower opening. Shazam is probably looking at making half the opening weekend. And even that feels shaky.

 

It's facing tougher competition as well, so total outlook isn't great right now.

 

I meant "the same as the original Shazam", not "the same as Black Adam". But in hindsight even that might have been a bit too high. $260M worldwide is probably a realistic ceiling, assuming a $75 million worldwide opening. Maybe $300M at a stretch .

Edited February 24, 2023 by El Squibbonator

[el sid]

Scream VI, counted today for Thursday, Mar 9 (13 days left):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): no showtimes yet
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 55 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 10 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 13 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 59 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 738.

Comps: Scream (3.5M from previews) had with 14 days left 502 sold tickets

and M3gan (2.75M) had with 9 days left 156 sold tickets.

Scream VI, counted today for Friday, Mar 10 (14 days left):

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 117 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 31 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 10 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 4 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 19 (5 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 30 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 164 (5 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 375.

Comps: Scream had with 15 days left 205 sold tickets

and M3gan had with 10 days left 126 sold tickets.

Just no complaints!

[Tinalera]

Scream 6

Thurs March 9 and friday March 10(T-14)

Vancouver and Calgary Canada

 

T-14	Vancouv	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
	Thurs	3	10	105	2019	2124	0.0494
	Fri	3	20	37	4003	4040	0.0091
	Calgary
	Thurs	4	5	28	2187	2215	0.0126
	Fri	4	7	47	3838	3885	0.0120

[ThomasNicole]

Let's see if good reactions and reviews can save it 

 

 

 

[Dragoncaine]

34 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Let's see if good reactions and reviews can save it 

 

 

 

 

BSL followed up that tweet with this one. Interesting!

 

 

 

Edited February 24, 2023 by Dragoncaine

[ThatWaluigiDude]

Any idea when 65 will begin?

[interiorgatordecorator]

39 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

 

BSL followed up that tweet with this one. Interesting!

 

 

 

 

vieweranon pretty much said its not that good

[ChipDerby]

2 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

vieweranon pretty much said its not that good

 

wow two opposing viewpoints

[GOGODanca]

3 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

 

wow two opposing viewpoints

VA is much more reliable than BSL

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

Let's see if good reactions and reviews can save it 

 

 

 

 

FWIW, it's been doing better in Sacramento than Philly.

 

I hate to sound like a broken record here, but there is a path to Shazam 2 having acceptable numbers*:  It has to keep selling like a family geared film that had no initial fan rush.

* At least for previews

 

That's really it.

 

Tracking in Philly, the markets that katnisscinnaplex checks and my own home tracking (which I haven't been releasing yet [mostly due to shitty comps]) all point to the same thing:

 

2m - 4m if it plays like a stereotypical CBM.

5m - 7m if it plays like a family film.

 

So how likely is it to play like a family film?  Or at least more like one?  Hell if I know.  Most of the problem is that it has an abnormally long pre-sale window for something that would get as low a preview number as it would have even if there had been something of an initial fan rush. 

 

Sub 15m in previews for "high profile" movies (4m+ previews) that had 29 days or more of pre-sales, last 15 months:

Nope (43 days)

Scream VI (30 days) (very probably)

 

That's pretty much it.  It's just effin rare for a film of this size to have so looooooong of a pre-sale window (non-Fast X division [which I'm ignoring for the purposes of this post]).

 

If I change it up to 21+ days, again the last 15 months, opens up a bit:

 

Sub 15m in previews for "high profile" movies (4m+ previews) that had 21 days or more of pre-sales, last 15 months:

Eternals (25 days)

Sonic 2 (25 days)

Minions 2 (10.75m)

Nope (43 days)

Black Adam (22 days)

Scream VI (30 days) (very probably)

 

Only two "family friendly" films now.  If I expand to horror, which is also tends to be a back loaded genre, it opens up a bit. Only two CBMs, so again the comps are... limited.

 

It really isn't until T-17 or so when a lot more films start to arrive when it comes to "expect sub 15m, but more than 4m".

 

All of this typing is to really say:  The 'natural' comps for Shazam! Fury of the Gods are only coming online now-ish.  At best, we had Eternals, but then ATP differences from Early Nov' 21 come into play.  Black Adam is finally around as a comp, but it did have something of a fan rush so it'll be a couple of days before that stabilizes.

 

Now Shazam! 2 really could use the boost of any sort of positive WoM, or attention frankly, and good-to-great reactions will almost certainly help in that regard.  Just wanted to point out that when it comes to recent films, there wasn't much out there to comp against this film.

 

tl;dr:  All that can be really said about Shazam! Fury of the Gods is that it had absolutely no initial interest.  Everything else will become apparent soon enough.

 

NB #2: 15 months was chosen as a cutoff due to the ticket price hikes that started to roll out mid/late November of '21.

Edited February 24, 2023 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

Creed 3 should beat above OW for sure. 

 

Creed 3 MTC1

Feb 27 Imax Shows - 2231/10614 49735.55 34 shows

Mar 1 early shows - 11508/92296 220406.00 370 shows

Previews - 14600/239558 258466.68 1209 shows

 

 

[Porthos]

22 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

vieweranon pretty much said its not that good

 

You know this is how the game of telephone starts, right?  Someone exaggerates/paraphrases what someone else says and then it takes on a life of its own.

 

---

 

For those curious, here was VA's comment:

 

18 hours ago, ViewerAnon said:

 

Agreed.

 

fwiw I didn't hear SHAZAM 2 test screenings were bad, just that it was over-long and not as good as the first. But everyone I know who saw it still thought it was at least kind of fun. I know it's a good 20-30 minutes shorter than it was during early test screenings so I hope that smooths over most of the issues.

 

Plus, as was the point of the whole discussion at the time, TEST SCREENINGS ARE TO SEE WHAT WORKS AND WHAT DOESN'T WHEN IT COMES TO EARLY CUTS OF FILMS!!!!!!

 

I don't believe VA has said much of anything of the current quality of the film.  At least not here.  And I don't feel like trawling through reddit or Twitter to see what else he might have said about it.

 

...

 

Fuck it.

 

*one quick check of Twitter later*

 

 

So, let's just wait and see, eh?

[Dragoncaine]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

You know this is how the game of telephone starts, right?  Someone exaggerates/paraphrases what someone else says and then it takes on a life of its own.

 

---

 

For those curious, here was VA's comment:

 

 

Plus, as was the point of the whole discussion at the time, TEST SCREENINGS ARE TO SEE WHAT WORKS AND WHAT DOESN'T WHEN IT COMES TO EARLY CUTS OF FILMS!!!!!!

 

I don't believe VA has said much of anything of the current quality of the film.  At least not here.  And I don't feel like trawling through reddit or Twitter to see what else he might have said about it.

 

...

 

Fuck it.

 

*one quick check of Twitter later*

 

 

So, let's just wait and see, eh?

And the poster ViewerAnon was responding to with that test screening comment in the first place was me! 

Edited February 24, 2023 by Dragoncaine