No Way Home Weekdays/Matrix & Sing Thread (12/20-23) | 37.1M Monday/32M Tues | King's Man 800K Previews

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, LPLC said:

How did you go from over $794M within a few weeks to $650M-$700M in just 4 hours ? This is weird. Holidays are canceled ? Theaters are closing due to the virus soon ? Reviews have gotten bad and the WOM is not good ?

At this early stage, all it needs is one big drop. After Monday, A:EG looked like sureshot Billion Dollar, Tuesday drop killed it. Back then we thought perhaps XMAS could have made it over 1B.

 

Now with NWH, we had XMAS, so there was a feeling after Monday that may be this thing do a TFA, but naa, spillover demand is exhausting and film is coming on the normal levels. My projections after ~$85M weekend still leads to $725M but I think those are bit optimistic and we may end up under $700M.

 

I haven't provided any COVID impact on those, so with COVID may be further down.

[john2000]

Guys this talk is pointless lets hit 600 mill first and then we will get an idea about where it will end up if its closer 800 or 700 , with that said i do agree with @GoblinXXR i cant see how this misses 700 and i find it quite weird how @charlie Jatinder went from 3,05 multi to 2,7 (i completly ignore the 2,5 multi by the way 650 dom) in one day alone.Anyways the only truth here is the fact that the numbers are huge.

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

At this early stage, all it needs is one big drop. After Monday, A:EG looked like sureshot Billion Dollar, Tuesday drop killed it. Back then we thought perhaps XMAS could have made it over 1B.

 

Now with NWH, we had XMAS, so there was a feeling after Monday that may be this thing do a TFA, but naa, spillover demand is exhausting and film is coming on the normal levels. My projections after ~$85M weekend still leads to $725M but I think those are bit optimistic and we may end up under $700M.

 

I haven't provided any COVID impact on those, so with COVID may be further down.

Only the fact that even for a 260 mill opener a multi below 2,7 seems disastrous and especially with that WOM  but i guess weirder things have happened.

[CJohn]

People need to fucking CHILL.

[john2000]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

People need to fucking CHILL.

For once we agree,i cant believe i am saying this.

[nguyenkhoi282]

I watched EG 11 times in cinemas and still felt the thrill. I watched NWH for the 2nd time and already felt like i wanted it to end. 

 

Less than EG multi then 😌 hmm maybe less than Civil War 😌 let's go 2.25x for 585M - worst MCU legs ever despite December !!!

[CloneWars]

If NWH drops and drops hard, it's very clear with that A+ cinemascore it is not because of WOM so let's not try and pretend audiences suddenly lost interest and think the movie is shit.

[john2000]

Just now, CloneWars said:

If NWH drops and drops hard, it's very clear with that A+ cinemascore it is not because of WOM so let's not try and pretend audiences suddenly lost interest and think the movie is shit.

true

[Legion Again]

Some people may be behaving weir next few days to avoid being positive on Xmas. I will wait until 26th to really assess.

Edited December 22, 2021 by Weird Alegion

[Shanks]

Don't fight your people, no that ain't good but please don't piss on our fiery parade either. 800M+ FTW!

Edited January 28, 2022 by Shanks

[LPLC]

8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

At this early stage, all it needs is one big drop. After Monday, A:EG looked like sureshot Billion Dollar, Tuesday drop killed it. Back then we thought perhaps XMAS could have made it over 1B.

 

Now with NWH, we had XMAS, so there was a feeling after Monday that may be this thing do a TFA, but naa, spillover demand is exhausting and film is coming on the normal levels. My projections after ~$85M weekend still leads to $725M but I think those are bit optimistic and we may end up under $700M.

 

I haven't provided any COVID impact on those, so with COVID may be further down.

In fact yesterday I used several ratios to find out where NWH will be after its 2nd weekend. I compare with AIW, AEG, SW7, SW8 and SW9, Avengers and BP.

 

For example: AIW: $453M after his 2nd weekend / $678M total = 1.49 ratio 

 

AEG = 1.38

 

SW7 = 1.74

 

SW8 = 1.68

 

SW9 = 1.42

 

Avengers = 1.67

 

BP = 1.74

 

And when I tried to compare, in my opinion the ratio for NWH with the holidays, the good reviews, the good WOM and the little competition will be above 1.5. However we must not lie to ourselves, it will not be above 1.7 at a level of SW7 or BP.

 

I had started from $510M, which gives us

 

510 x 1.5 = $ 765M

 

510 x 1.65 = $ 841M

 

Now if you tell me the total will be "only" $ 460M with a whopping 70% drop I think we can expect :

 

460 x 1.5 = $690M

 

460x 1.65 = $759M

 

Let's try to beat BP, I think this is the goal we can try to achieve. And if NWH could finish its run around $710M-$740M that would be perfect. In any case it will be really disappointing and unexpected if NWH ends up below $700M, yesterday with $500M after the 2nd weekend it was almost "locked" in my opinion but now ...

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Weird Alegion said:

Some people may be behaving weir next few days to a voice being positive on Xmas. I will wait until 26th to really assess.

Personally i havent changed my prediction, while the again estimated tuesday isnt ideal for now at least i dont see why  should i change my prediction all that much and certainly not by 100 mill.Now if it becomes a pattern thats different, 19%drop isnt the worst and especially if consider many variable like @DAJK said.

[jb007]

51 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

I watched EG 11 times in cinemas and still felt the thrill. I watched NWH for the 2nd time and already felt like i wanted it to end. 

 

Less than EG multi then 😌 hmm maybe less than Civil War 😌 let's go 2.25x for 585M - worst MCU legs ever despite December !!!

I agree.

 

I watched IW and EG several times. I watched NWH. Liked it. But I don't think I will watch it again. 

 

 

 

 

[Legion Again]

EG 5 times. Was thinking of a 2nd NWH this week but probably gonna be matrix instead.

[Gavin Feng]

a) Record nothing doesn't mean flop. I think this is a logic that most people should not lose. Like I said days ago, any number around AIW is good and realistic($260M debut with conservative multiple). I know many people expect higher like $800M+ due to crazy opening & top-level CS & Xmas. But come on, we all know it could easily miss that milestone for some reasons that data and numbers couldn't really tell. We might not be able to tell why for now, but we will know some day in the future.

 

b) I predict in the future, A+ grade movies will have worse legs than A grade movies on average for Marvel Studios. The opinion is based on a theory I couldn't tell right or wrong at this point: There is no big big difference between most MCU movies in terms of qualities. So if a MCU movie earn above-average grade (A+), it's most likely because it is a event thing (assembly stuff) instead of people think it's something like Citizen Kane. And the grade wouldn't really work as we think. The first Avengers got A+ because it was really a surprise. But for Endgame & No Way Home, people already had a expectation that was far far bigger than what they expected from the 2012 MCU movie. 

Edited December 22, 2021 by Gavin Feng

[john2000]

18 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

a) Record nothing doesn't mean flop. I think this is a logic that most people should not lose. Like I said days ago, any number around AIW is good and realistic($260M debut with conservative multiple). I know many people expect higher like $800M+ due to crazy opening & top-level CS & Xmas. But come on, we all know it could easily miss that milestone for some reasons that data and numbers couldn't really tell. We might not be able to tell why for now, but we will know some day in the future.

 

b) I predict in the future, A+ grade movies will have worse legs than A grade movies on average for Marvel Studios. The opinion is based on a theory I couldn't tell right or wrong at this point: There is no big big difference between most MCU movies in terms of qualities. So if a MCU movie earn above-average grade (A+), it's most likely because it is a event thing (assembly stuff) instead of people think it's something like Citizen Kane. And the grade wouldn't really work as we think. The first Avengers got A+ because it was really a surprise. But for Endgame & No Way Home, people already had a expectation that was far far bigger than what they expected from the 2012 MCU movie. 

The movie has overperformed expectations big time  and we are talking about a 1,5-2 billion grosser here with that said hopefully it has also good legs.

Edited December 22, 2021 by john2000

[cookieleeann]

As time goes on I keep appreciating Black Panther's run. 

[john2000]

1 minute ago, cookieleeann said:

As time goes on I keep appreciating Black Panther's run. 

i mean it opened with 200 ow and had 3,5 multi.

[BoxOfficeZ]

I feel like we have gotten spoiled a bit by Endgame lol. Does no one forget that we're not in normal times, we're in the middle of a pandemic and NWH still managed to get the third highest opening weekend of all time? 

Edited December 22, 2021 by BoxOfficeZ

[thedast]

I think people are underestimating how much viewing habits have changed along with COVID.  The huge spoilers and audience reactions are what got people fighting to see it the first few days. That's out of the way now and repeat viewings are more of a 'risk' than than they were two years ago. As others said, older, slower audiences may never go see this. It's Christmas. And honestly, the hardcore fans mayyybe overhyped NWH a bit and the high has come down. Pirated clips are all over twitter too. For me, I saw it twice, but now I'm good till it's out on streaming. It'll still do the best numbers the industry as seen in 2 years, I'm not sure what people on here want considering the circumstances.