Christmas Weekend Thread (24-26 Dec). No Way Home (84.5m) | Matrix (22.5m 5 day) | Sing 2 (39.4m 5 day)

[Maggie]

FB3 has bomb written all over it. I wouldn't be surprised to see it go to HBO Max. If it's a exclisuve theatrical release, i agree with CJohn, no more than 70M

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, Maggie said:

If it's a exclisuve theatrical release, i agree with CJohn, no more than 70M

 

This is Shang Chi all over again for you.

 

I don't think it's going to do amazing or anything, but it'll be closer to $70M OW than it will be to $70M DOM.

[Maggie]

3 minutes ago, RiddlerXXR said:

 

This is Shang Chi all over again for you.

 

I don't think it's going to do amazing or anything, but it'll be closer to $70M OW than it will be to $70M DOM.

heheh  but seriously, the last one was hated, had poor legs. This will pay the price

 

My Shang chi prediction was mostly because i thought Corona would kill it

Edited December 27, 2021 by Maggie

[Eric the IF]

I already said this like two weeks ago, but even if you take out the Rowling/Depp stuff, I just don't think Fantastic Beasts has really captured the attention of folks, outside of the hardcore Potter fans. Anecdotal, but the reactions about the first Fantastic Beasts around me weren't anything spectacular and Grindelwald turned away a lot of people. And keep in mind, I was a massive Potter fanatic growing up and made a lot of friends through that series. Deathly Hallows Part II had me choked up when I saw it opening day, and I still really love a lot of the aspects of the original books and movies (Screw Joanne tho). But even I can't bring myself to care. 75M DOM sounds right to me.

[YM!]

I can see either or for FB3. A total near $70m or just above $100m. 
 

I do see a scenario where Sonic 2 OW > Beasts 3 DOM is possible. 

[Eric the IF]

3 minutes ago, RiddlerXXR said:

 

This is Shang Chi all over again for you.

 

I don't think it's going to do amazing or anything, but it'll be closer to $70M OW than it will be to $70M DOM.

Days of Future Past: 234M

Fantastic Beasts 1: 234M

 

Apocalypse: 155M

Grindelwald: 159M

 

Dark Phoenix: 66M

Dumbledore: ???

[efialtes76]

FB3 will make $100M+ at 100%.

 

[YM!]

8 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I can see either or for FB3. A total near $70m or just above $100m. 
 

I do see a scenario where Sonic 2 OW > Beasts 3 DOM is possible. 

If it weren’t for the fact family audiences are uncertain, also depends on if Turning Red can open to 40m, Sonic 2 seems like it has a shot for $75m OW.

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

FB3 will make $100M+ at 100%.

 

 

Yea this isn't Dark Phoenix. It'll open to $50M+ and finish over $100M. They're advertising this intelligently by putting 'Dumbledore' in the title and de-emphasizing the 'Fantastic Beasts' part of it. 

[titanic2187]

Unlike NWH, both movies drop quite a bit from estimate.  

[Eric the IF]

3 minutes ago, YourMother said:

If it weren’t for the fact family audiences are uncertain, also depends on if Turning Red can open to 40m, Sonic 2 seems like it has a shot for $75m OW.

Honestly I think Sonic isn't affected too much by the lack of families. No joke, when I saw the first Sonic movie, my showing only had like two kids in the audience. It was weird.

[Menor the Destroyer]

I can see FB3 really bombing, the trailer seemed like it just came and went with little buzz, but I think the Potter fanbase is more committed than X-Men. That said it's having a hefty drop from the last film regardless, just hard to tell how much. 110ish would be my gut guess for now.

 

[baumer]

4 hours ago, CJohn said:

I was talking to a friend just now and you know what I still don't fucking believe? That Marvel's Eternals, directed by Chloe Zhao and produced by Kevin Feige which was sold as MCU is going to the Oscars, is sitting at 47% on RT. My mind always takes a bit to process that information. My friend told me every time he remembers he needs to check RT to confirm it is true. That is a thing that happened. The whiplash I feel every time I see it or think about it is crazy.

 

Did you just come back from the playground again or something buddy?

[Ledmonkey96]

As far as FB3 goes most of the people i know that absolutely love HP (mid 20's girls that is) aren't all that enthused about FB3 due to Amber Heard still being attached to it.

[Eric the IF]

2 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

As far as FB3 goes most of the people i know that absolutely love HP (mid 20's girls that is) aren't all that enthused about FB3 due to Amber Heard still being attached to it.

She's not...in those movies?

[EmpireCity]

8 hours ago, CJohn said:

People thinking FB3 will do well are insane. Shit will tank DOM and end with like a 70M DOM total or something. This is the Dark Phoenix/Convergent of the franchise.

 

I have never been more convinced this movie is going to do well now.  

[EmpireCity]

It is really early, but thinking $23m-24m today.  

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, EmpireCity said:

It is really early, but thinking $23m-24m today.  

 

That would certainly break our presales model if it came in that high (which is good). 

@Product Driven Legion

[fmpro]

4 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

It is really early, but thinking $23m-24m today.  

I`ll take that number. Please lock it down

[cdsacken]

45 minutes ago, Maggie said:

FB3 has bomb written all over it. I wouldn't be surprised to see it go to HBO Max. If it's a exclisuve theatrical release, i agree with CJohn, no more than 70M

agree on this one