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filmlover

Best Picture Predictions: 2022

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11 hours ago, filmlover said:

She Said is definitely above things like Thirteen Lives (dumped on streaming over the summer and forgotten about now) or Aftersun or Armageddon Time (movies that no one will see). We won't get a sense of how far it's going until we hear how the industry responds to it and the other movies in contention, but since it's assured an Adapted Screenplay nomination given how barren that category is and Supporting Actress is so open that Mulligan could sneak in, it could get three major nominations even if it has no chance of winning any of them. Not expecting it to do well at the box office, but unlike something like, say, Bros, there's no pressure for a movie like this to make money in theaters, especially when it's looking to be a low-grossing crop of nominees again outside of potentially three movies.

The one big thing that might hold she said back is that HW is on trial right now and it might be in bad taste to nominate it.

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1 hour ago, Reddroast said:

The one big thing that might hold she said back is that HW is on trial right now and it might be in bad taste to nominate it.

No one's going to care about that. He/his legal team's efforts of getting the jury to overlook the movie as much as possible (difficult to do in LA, both where the trial is taking place and where there are currently billboards for the movie everywhere) is nothing but a deflection attempt.

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On 10/31/2022 at 4:10 PM, Ezen Baklattan said:

Kinda surprised She Said isn't on your list. I'm very much unsure of how it'll connect with the industry (even if critics were mostly positive but not THAT positive) but it feels like at least a top 25 contender.

 

(I had that and Triangle of Sadness in my top 10 a few weeks ago, but they're definitely on their way out.)

I honestly just forgot about it since I don't have it in my top 15. I wouldn't even have it in my top 20 after the NYFF reception.

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8 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I do not think She Said is assured a Screenplay nomination at all

That category is as dead as it was in 2017 though. Currently I have Women Talking, Glass Onion, She Said, and then... waiting until more than two stills from The Whale are released to further assess its chances beyond Fraser and Makeup (any day now, A24). White Noise is also looking like a potential lone nominee if it makes it. Bones and All looks like something the major awards bodies won't touch with a ten foot pole. None of the blockbuster sequels are likely to make the cut when their predecessors didn't. Basically anything that isn't Women Talking is just gonna be lucky to be nominated just as everything that wasn't Call Me by Your Name was that year.

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1 hour ago, filmlover said:

That category is as dead as it was in 2017 though. Currently I have Women Talking, Glass Onion, She Said, and then... waiting until more than two stills from The Whale are released to further assess its chances beyond Fraser and Makeup (any day now, A24). White Noise is also looking like a potential lone nominee if it makes it. Bones and All looks like something the major awards bodies won't touch with a ten foot pole. None of the blockbuster sequels are likely to make the cut when their predecessors didn't. Basically anything that isn't Women Talking is just gonna be lucky to be nominated just as everything that wasn't Call Me by Your Name was that year.

Lone nominees are quite common in Screenplay. Wouldn't rule out White Noise. Pinocchio has a shot as well. 

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It's over, folks.

 

 

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48 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Oh ok. Good argument

Well... I have an argument.


I mean Pixar's Soul didn't get a screenplay nomination in its year either.

Animated films have an uphill battle to get screenplay noms. Maybe.

 

Also Zootopia didn't get one, but that was arguably a very competitive year.

Edited by cannastop
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I'm guessing all of the "big" names they likely tried to court passed. 

 

Kimmel is okay for this, I guess. Given that the expectations are so low for the Oscars these days after the trainwrecks that were the past few ceremonies (especially the most recent one), at least it sounds like they're trying to fix some of the problems they've been having by announcing the host early. Hopefully this means that they're learning that the "shamed of themselves" tone that has permeated the show for a while (ex: the hosts complaining they couldn't finish The Power of the Dog because of how long it was) just isn't the way and is only going to further alienate their audience.

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The Full List of EFA 2022 Nominations:

 

European Film

Alcarràs (Sp-It)

Director Carla Simón, producers María Zamora, Stefan Schmitz, Tono Folguera & Giovanni Pompili  

Close (Bel-Fr-Neth)

Director Lukas Dhont, producers Michiel Dhont, Dirk Impens, Michel Saint-Jean, Laurette Schillings, Arnold Heslenfeld, Frans van Gestel & Jacques-Henri Bronckart

Corsage (Austria-Lux-Ger-France)

Director Marie Kreutzer, producers Alexander Glehr, Johanna Scherz, Bernard Michaux, Jonas Dornbach, Janine Jackowski, Maren Ade & Jean-Christophe Reymond

Holy Spider (Den-Ger-Swe-Fr)

Director by Ali Abbasi, producers Sol Bondy & Jacob Jarek 

Triangle Of Sadness (Swe-Ger-Fr-UK)

Directed by Ruben Östlund, producers Erik Hemmendorff & Philippe Bober  

 

European Documentary

A House Made Of Splinters (Den-Swe-Fin-Ukr)

Director Simon Lereng Wilmont

Girl Gang (Switz)

Director Susanne Regina Meures (Switzerland)

Mariupolis 2 (Lithuania-Fr-Ger)

Director Mantas Kvedaravičius

The Balcony Movie (Pol)

Director Paweł Łoziński  

The March On Rome (It)

Director Mark Cousins  

 

European Director

Lukas Dhont for Close

Marie Kreutzer for Corsage

Jerzy Skolimowski for EO

Ali Abbasi for Holy Spider

Alice Diop for Saint Omer

Ruben Östlund for Triangle Of Sadness

 

European Actress

Vicky Krieps in Corsage

Zar Amir Ebrahimi in Holy Spider

Léa Seydoux in One Fine Morning

Penélope Cruz in Parallel Mothers

Meltem Kaptan in Rabiye Kurnaz Vs. George W. Bush

 

European Actor

Paul Mescal in Aftersun

Eden Dambrine in Close

Elliott Crosset Hove in Godland

Pierfrancesco Favino in Nostalgia

Zlatko Burić in Triangle Of Sadness

 

European Screenwriter

Carla Simón & Arnau Vilaró for Alcarràs

Kenneth Branagh for Belfast

Lukas Dhont & Angelo Tijssens for Close

Ali Abbasi & Afshin Kamran Bahrami for Holy Spider

Ruben Östlund for Triangle Of Sadness

 

European Discovery – Prix FIPRESCI

107 Mothers (Slovakia-Czech Rep-Ukr)

Director Peter Kerekes

Love According To Dalva (Bel-Fr)

Director Emmanuelle Nicot  

Other People (Pol-Fr)

Director Aleksandra Terpińska  

Pamfir (Ukr-Fr-Pol-Ger-Chile)

Director Dmytro Sukholytkyy-Sobchuk

Small Body (It-Slovenia-Fr)

Director Laura Samani

Sonne

Director Kurdwin Ayub

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