Best Picture Predictions: 2022

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I don't think Avatar will get into Screenplay. The first didn't. Titanic didn't. I think that'll be a White Noise slot

 

[interiorgatordecorator]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

New predicts:

  Reveal hidden contents

Picture:

 

1. The Fabelmans

2. Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once

4. Avatar: The Way of Water

5. The Son

6. Empire of Light

7. Tár

8. Babylon

9. Elvis

10. Top Gun: Maverick

Alt: She Said

 

Director:

 

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

2. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water

3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

5. Todd Field, Tár

Alt: Alejandro G. Inarritu, Bardo

 

Actor:

 

1. Austin Butler, Elvis

2. Hugh Jackman, The Son

3. Brendan Fraser, The Whale

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

5. Brad Pitt, Babylon

Alt: Adam Driver, White Noise

 

Actress: 

 

1. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Margot Robbie, Babylon

3. Cate Blanchett, Tár

4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light

5. Viola Davis, The Woman King

Alt: Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon

2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans

3. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

4. Michael Ward, Empire of Light

5. David Lynch, The Fabelmans

Alt: Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

2. Vanessa Kirby, The Son

3. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

4. Jean Smart, Babylon

5. Laura Dern, The Son

Alt: Sadie Sink, The Whale

 

Original Screenplay:

 

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. The Fabelmans

3. Empire of Light

4. Tár

5. Babylon

Alt: Elvis

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. Killers of the Flower Moon

2. The Son

3. She Said

4. The Whale

5. Avatar: The Way of Water

Alt: White Noise

 

Animated Feature:

 

1. Pinocchio

2. Turning Red

3. Strange World

4. Luck

5. My Father's Dragon

Alt: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

 

Cinematography:

 

1. Avatar: The Way of Water

2. Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Top Gun: Maverick

4. The Northman

5. Nope

Alt: Bardo

 

 

Editing:

 

1. Top Gun: Maverick

2. Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. Avatar: The Way of Water

4. The Fabelmans

5. Elvis

Alt: Killers of the Flower Moon

 

Production Design:

 

1. Elvis

2. Avatar: The Way of Water

3. Babylon

4. Killers of the Flower Moon

5. Empire of Light

Alt: The Northman

 

Costume Design:

 

1. Elvis

2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

3. Babylon

4. Killers of the Flower Moon

5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Alt: Everything Everywhere All at Once

 

Makeup and Hairstyling:

 

1. The Whale

2. Elvis

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once

4. The Batman

5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Alt: The Woman King

 

Score:

 

1. Tár

2. The Batman

3. The Fabelmans

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

5. Babylon

Alt: Pinocchio (GDT)

 

Song:

 

1. Hold My Hand, Top Gun: Maverick

2. Nobody Like U, Turning Red

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

4. Carolina, Where the Crawdads Sing

5. Pinocchio (GDT)

Alt: Lyle Lyle Crocodile

 

Visual Effects:

 

1. Avatar: The Way of Water

2. Nope

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once

4. Top Gun: Maverick

5. Pinocchio (GDT)

Alt: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

 

Sound:

 

1. Top Gun: Maverick

2. Avatar: The Way of Water

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once

4. Elvis

5. Tár

Alt: The Batman

 

10x:

Everything Everywhere All at Once (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Editing, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Visual Effects, Sound)

 

9x:

Killers of the Flower Moon (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design)

 

8x:

Avatar: The Way of Water (Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Visual Effects, Sound)

Babylon (Picture, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Costume Design, Score)

The Fabelmans (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor x2, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing, Score)

 

7x:

Elvis (Picture, Actor, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound)

 

6x:

Tár (Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay, Score, Sound)

Top Gun: Maverick (Picture, Cinematography, Editing, Song, Visual Effects, Sound)

 

5x:

The Son (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress x2, Adapted Screenplay)

 

4x:

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Score, Song)

Empire of Light (Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay)

 

3x:

Pinocchio (Animated Feature, Song, Visual Effects)

The Whale (Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Makeup and Hairstyling)

 

2x:

The Batman (Makeup and Hairstyling, Score)

Nope (Cinematography, Visual Effects)
Turning Red (Animated Feature, Song)

 

 

1 hour ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I don't think Avatar will get into Screenplay. The first didn't. Titanic didn't. I think that'll be a White Noise slot

 

 

needs to be a real masterpiece to get into screenplay, its hard, but nowhere near impossible

Edited July 26, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 hour ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

 

needs to be a real masterpiece to get into screenplay, its hard, but nowhere near impossible

I think it's borderline impossible. These films just rarely get into writing because the writing branch don't perceive them as such. Just look at Gravity and Mad Max. Dune is the exception but I think that's in large part to the legacy of the novel itself and how nearly unadaptable it is

[lorddemaxus]

8 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I think it's borderline impossible. These films just rarely get into writing because the writing branch don't perceive them as such. Just look at Gravity and Mad Max. Dune is the exception but I think that's in large part to the legacy of the novel itself and how nearly unadaptable it is

Dune was also co-written by Eric Roth, who is a big writer and got nominated multiple times before (I think all his BP nominated films got a screenplay nom).

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

30 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Dune was also co-written by Eric Roth, who is a big writer and got nominated multiple times before (I think all his BP nominated films got a screenplay nom).

Yeah I think Cameron is conceived by many as a terrible writer lol.

 

The branch will have a lot of actual writerly and dense works to choose from.. Women Talking, Killers of Flower Moon, The Son, White Noise and The Whale, She Said, etc

[Ozymandias]

It was lulz when when District 9 got a screenplay nod over Avatar in 2009.  Not because it didn't deserve it, but because it made Avatar stans blue in the face.

 

And btw, Ex Machina and The Martian are two recent scifi films that got screenplay noms, so its not that rare.  But I don't think Cameron has written a particularly great screenplay since Terminator 2 and he seems more invested in pushing the tech stuff than anything.  My computers are bigger than yours.

 

 

Edited July 26, 2022 by Ozymandias

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

12 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

It was lulz when when District 9 got a screenplay nod over Avatar in 2009.  Not because it didn't deserve it, but because it made Avatar stans blue in the face.

 

And btw, Ex Machina and The Martian are two recent scifi films that got screenplay noms, so its not that rare.  But I don't think Cameron has written a particularly great screenplay since Terminator 2 and he seems more invested in pushing the tech stuff than anything.  My computers are bigger than yours.

 

 

But those sci-fi films weren't visual spectacles like Avatar, etc that were mostly seen as technical achievements. Both had serious plots and character development and structure. Martian was basically a procedural with intercutting courtroom dynamics

[filmlover]

Official Venice line-up revealed. Notables to look out for:

 

The Banshees of Inisherin

Bardo

Blonde

Bones and All

Don't Worry Darling

The Son

Tar

The Whale

White Noise

[cannastop]

13 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Score:

 

1. Tár

2. The Batman

3. The Fabelmans

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

5. Babylon

Alt: Pinocchio (GDT

Don't think it will get it, but Turning Red also deserves consideration. Ludwig Göransson did a lot for the movie, including a special arrangement of the Nobody Like U song.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

 

[interiorgatordecorator]

44 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

 

 

i am le big sad

I wonder if amazon will now try to rush Napoleon for this year, im also locking in a nom prediction for avatar in director

 

 

 

Edited July 26, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[Ozymandias]

From Jordan Ruimy:

 

UPDATE: Source tells me “Deadline article is pure speculation. Nobody at Apple has confirmed that this film is being delayed, Marty and Thelma are still at work with no timeline.”

Amidst the great Venice lineup announcement today comes a bombshell of speculation courtesy of Deadline.

Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon” will not be released in 2023, they say. Instead, it is eyeing a world premiere at the Cannes Film Festival next May. What?!

There was a rumor that 2023 might be an option for Scorsese’s film, then I was told December was the aim and that a marketing campaign was ready to go for the film. Did Scorsese and longtime editor Thelma Schoonmaker get cold feet? I’m not buying it.

I just can’t see Apple campaigning both Ridley Scott’s “Napoleon” and “Killers of the Flower Moon” next year. It’s one or the other.

It’s been said that Scott’s upcoming epic is eyeing next year’s Cannes with a summer release date soon after, but I just can’t see Scorsese’s film also going that route, sorry Deadline.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Jordan Ruimy is one of the internet's biggest liars. He's film version of Alex Jones. I don't believe a word of what he says

[cannastop]

1 hour ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Jordan Ruimy is one of the internet's biggest liars. He's film version of Alex Jones. I don't believe a word of what he says

https://variety.com/2022/film/news/martin-scorsese-killers-of-the-flower-moon-2023-release-date-1235326392/

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

9 minutes ago, cannastop said:

https://variety.com/2022/film/news/martin-scorsese-killers-of-the-flower-moon-2023-release-date-1235326392/

What are you quoting me with?

 

This isn't jordan Ruimy. Ruimy said the trailer was coming soon and film will be out by December

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

DEADLINE: You’ve had the Midas touch when it comes to Oscar movies in recent years. Which movies in the lineup do you think could pop with Academy voters?

BARBERA: There are a number. Tar for sure. Cate Blanchett is absolutely amazing. It’s a very ambitious film. Iñárritu is a contender again with Bardo. This is probably his most personal and ambitious film so far. Noah Baumbach’s film [The Whale] is also another contender and The Son will be in the Oscar conversation, I’m sure. I’m curious about the response to Blonde, we’ll see. Luca Guadagnino’s film [Bones And All] has a chance to feature in the race, as does Don’t Worry Darling.

 

https://deadline.com/2022/07/venice-harry-styles-timothee-chalamet-cate-blanchett-film-festival-interview-alberto-barbera-1235078163/

 

No idea why The Whale is in brackets and not White Noise for Baumbach

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

What are you quoting me with?

 

This isn't jordan Ruimy. Ruimy said the trailer was coming soon and film will be out by December

ahh lol whoops sorry I assumed you were referring to deadline.

[interiorgatordecorator]

7 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

DEADLINE: You’ve had the Midas touch when it comes to Oscar movies in recent years. Which movies in the lineup do you think could pop with Academy voters?

BARBERA: There are a number. Tar for sure. Cate Blanchett is absolutely amazing. It’s a very ambitious film. Iñárritu is a contender again with Bardo. This is probably his most personal and ambitious film so far. Noah Baumbach’s film [The Whale] is also another contender and The Son will be in the Oscar conversation, I’m sure. I’m curious about the response to Blonde, we’ll see. Luca Guadagnino’s film [Bones And All] has a chance to feature in the race, as does Don’t Worry Darling.

 

https://deadline.com/2022/07/venice-harry-styles-timothee-chalamet-cate-blanchett-film-festival-interview-alberto-barbera-1235078163/

 

No idea why The Whale is in brackets and not White Noise for Baumbach

 

impressive how absolutely nothing at all was said in those 6 lines

[WrathOfHan]

22 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

New predicts:

  Reveal hidden contents

Picture:

 

1. The Fabelmans

2. Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once

4. Avatar: The Way of Water

5. The Son

6. Empire of Light

7. Tár

8. Babylon

9. Elvis

10. Top Gun: Maverick

Alt: She Said

 

Director:

 

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

2. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water

3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

4. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

5. Todd Field, Tár

Alt: Alejandro G. Inarritu, Bardo

 

Actor:

 

1. Austin Butler, Elvis

2. Hugh Jackman, The Son

3. Brendan Fraser, The Whale

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

5. Brad Pitt, Babylon

Alt: Adam Driver, White Noise

 

Actress: 

 

1. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Margot Robbie, Babylon

3. Cate Blanchett, Tár

4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light

5. Viola Davis, The Woman King

Alt: Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon

2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans

3. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

4. Michael Ward, Empire of Light

5. David Lynch, The Fabelmans

Alt: Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

2. Vanessa Kirby, The Son

3. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

4. Jean Smart, Babylon

5. Laura Dern, The Son

Alt: Sadie Sink, The Whale

 

Original Screenplay:

 

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. The Fabelmans

3. Empire of Light

4. Tár

5. Babylon

Alt: Elvis

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. Killers of the Flower Moon

2. The Son

3. She Said

4. The Whale

5. Avatar: The Way of Water

Alt: White Noise

 

Animated Feature:

 

1. Pinocchio

2. Turning Red

3. Strange World

4. Luck

5. My Father's Dragon

Alt: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

 

Cinematography:

 

1. Avatar: The Way of Water

2. Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Top Gun: Maverick

4. The Northman

5. Nope

Alt: Bardo

 

 

Editing:

 

1. Top Gun: Maverick

2. Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. Avatar: The Way of Water

4. The Fabelmans

5. Elvis

Alt: Killers of the Flower Moon

 

Production Design:

 

1. Elvis

2. Avatar: The Way of Water

3. Babylon

4. Killers of the Flower Moon

5. Empire of Light

Alt: The Northman

 

Costume Design:

 

1. Elvis

2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

3. Babylon

4. Killers of the Flower Moon

5. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Alt: Everything Everywhere All at Once

 

Makeup and Hairstyling:

 

1. The Whale

2. Elvis

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once

4. The Batman

5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Alt: The Woman King

 

Score:

 

1. Tár

2. The Batman

3. The Fabelmans

4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

5. Babylon

Alt: Pinocchio (GDT)

 

Song:

 

1. Hold My Hand, Top Gun: Maverick

2. Nobody Like U, Turning Red

3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

4. Carolina, Where the Crawdads Sing

5. Pinocchio (GDT)

Alt: Lyle Lyle Crocodile

 

Visual Effects:

 

1. Avatar: The Way of Water

2. Nope

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once

4. Top Gun: Maverick

5. Pinocchio (GDT)

Alt: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

 

Sound:

 

1. Top Gun: Maverick

2. Avatar: The Way of Water

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once

4. Elvis

5. Tár

Alt: The Batman

 

10x:

Everything Everywhere All at Once (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Editing, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Visual Effects, Sound)

 

9x:

Killers of the Flower Moon (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design)

 

8x:

Avatar: The Way of Water (Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Visual Effects, Sound)

Babylon (Picture, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Costume Design, Score)

The Fabelmans (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor x2, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing, Score)

 

7x:

Elvis (Picture, Actor, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound)

 

6x:

Tár (Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay, Score, Sound)

Top Gun: Maverick (Picture, Cinematography, Editing, Song, Visual Effects, Sound)

 

5x:

The Son (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress x2, Adapted Screenplay)

 

4x:

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Score, Song)

Empire of Light (Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay)

 

3x:

Pinocchio (Animated Feature, Song, Visual Effects)

The Whale (Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Makeup and Hairstyling)

 

2x:

The Batman (Makeup and Hairstyling, Score)

Nope (Cinematography, Visual Effects)
Turning Red (Animated Feature, Song)

 

Updated nom counts if KOTFM is indeed delayed  

 

10x:

Everything Everywhere All at Once (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Visual Effects, Sound)

 

8x:

Avatar: The Way of Water (Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Visual Effects, Sound)

Babylon (Picture, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Costume Design, Score)

The Fabelmans (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor x2, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing, Score)

 

7x:

Elvis (Picture, Actor, Editing, Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound)

 

6x:

Tár (Picture, Director, Actress, Original Screenplay, Score, Sound)

Top Gun: Maverick (Picture, Cinematography, Editing, Song, Visual Effects, Sound)

 

5x:

The Son (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress x2, Adapted Screenplay)

 

4x:

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Score, Song)

Empire of Light (Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay)

The Whale (Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Makeup and Hairstyling)

 

3x:

Pinocchio (Animated Feature, Song, Visual Effects)

 

2x:

Bardo (Director, Cinematography)

The Batman (Makeup and Hairstyling, Score)

Nope (Cinematography, Visual Effects)

The Northman (Cinematography, Production Design)

She Said (Picture, Adapted Screenplay)
Turning Red (Animated Feature, Song)
White Noise (Actor, Adapted Screenplay)

[cannastop]

25 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Empire of Light (Picture, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay)

wait, you really think the Academy is going to pass up Thomas Newman doing the score?