THE BATMAN WEEKEND THREAD | 134M OW DOM, 258.2M WW | Biggest WB opening since BvS. First non Disney-affiliated 100M OW since 2018

[XXR vs XXR]

5 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

Even discounting the Tuesday and Wednesday screenings, the Thursday night numbers are bigger than Joker. 

 

True, 17.6 vs 13.3 

 

Lets say FSS is equally as big over the Joker, we'd be looking at ~$110M + $21.6M for nearly $132M. Seems like a good number, but I'd also say it's essentially the maximum at this point. 

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

You claimed that comparing the box office to movies that were released last year isn’t fair, so I brought up a movie that was released before the pandemic. It sounds like you’re doing everything you can to downplay its performance. 

Nah, I’m just not cheerleading for it. My expectations were for it to do fairly weak for a Batman movie, which is still decently big because Batman is a very high tier BO franchise. It is doing exactly that. Not great, not terrible, as the saying goes.

[HouseOfTheSun]

3 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

You claimed that comparing the box office to movies that were released last year isn’t fair, so I brought up a movie that was released before the pandemic. It sounds like you’re doing everything you can to downplay its performance. 

I think he’s playing it exactly as it should be. A solid opening that’s not going to do anything more than expected based in tracking and nothing to go into hysterics about. 
 

it should also be a obvious and glaring sign to you that you’re using the one freak show overpeformance to justify your logic.  

[M37]

33 minutes ago, A Star is Orm said:

Those PostTrak scores from last night (4.5 stars, 88% positive, 73% definite recommend) absolutely point to the likelihood of significant numbers of repeat viewers. Not saying it can do 3X, but WOM* is going to carry this a long way through a basically empty month. I think $330-350 is on the table and that's a fantastic start for this new, darker Batverse.

 

* had a friend call me this morning who is NOT a CBM nerd at all, but knows that I am, and she said, "Have you heard? This new Batman is supposed to be amazing!" (Her girlfriend's BF had seen it on Tuesday night and couldn't stop raving about it.)

 

 

The good reviews/WOM and lack of competition is going to help provide decent legs, as non-CBM fans eventually get over the mental hurdle and go see it, when given enough time & opportunity

 

Similar dynamic seen with Dune (2.6x) and previously Joker as well.  But a large OW and a still weaker GA market, probably puts the top end at 2.5-2.8x, really would be difficult to approach a full 3x like Shang-Chi

[Legion Again]

It is kind of wild how SC, NWH, now Batman, and soon DS2 have had so much runway. Not going to see much of that anymore once MDW hits.

[Porthos]

 

Spoiler

I'd say the current thread state would be unexpected, but that'd be a lie. 

 

Anywho, happy enough with my 20.6 projection (NOT prediction) considering all of the variables.

 

Edited March 4, 2022 by Porthos

[WittyUsername]

8 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

I think he’s playing it exactly as it should be. A solid opening that’s not going to do anything more than expected based in tracking and nothing to go into hysterics about. 
 

it should also be a obvious and glaring sign to you that you’re using the one freak show overpeformance to justify your logic.  

I have no clue what you’re going on about. I don’t see anyone claiming that these numbers are groundbreaking, but I don’t see any reason to act like it’s underperforming based on tracking. Considering how the past three DC movies performed, I’m sure WB sees these numbers as a godsend. 

Edited March 4, 2022 by WittyUsername

[HouseOfTheSun]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

  Hide contents

I'd say the current thread state would be unexpected, but that'd be a lie. 

 

Anywho, happy enough with my 20.6 projection (NOT prediction) considering all of the variables.

 

You killed it with your numbers once again man!

[Noctis]

40 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

If you apply TlJ and tros multiplier for the batman true Thursday , you will get sub 100m even adding fan screening number. So no way the probability come to zero.

 

I'm sorry for forgetting to compare The Batman to TROS. So silly of me.

[Liiviig 1998]

30 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Those are solid PostTrak scores but don't point to massive legs. Basically the exact same scores as Captain Marvel after its previews. But yeah, 330-350 off of 130+ is likely, harder if it is more like 120. 

A 3 hr noir slow burn Vs a highly anticipated MCu  movie leading to EG. MCU is more family friendly. Why do you think most of them gets an A even the questionable ones e.g Aou, IM3 etc... . If it was a standard dceu movie then I would say this is a solid postrax

But for batman this is a really good post trax.

Not saying it's great and will guarantee great legs . Me thinking 2.8*. But 2.92* off a 120m wind gets its to 350m Dom which once again ain't crazy for march without significant competition.

 

But let's see how walk-ups go this weekend.

[LVB]

This forum is insane. People fight over the most trivial things.

 

I love it.

[XXR vs XXR]

5 minutes ago, Noctis said:

 

I'm sorry for forgetting to compare The Batman to TROS. So silly of me.

 

Not that I think this will be the case, but using NWH's previews IM vs Batman's Pure Thursday would also put OW below $100M. 

 

[CJohn]

RPATZ is a flop. European Arthouse Porn industry right now:

Edited March 4, 2022 by CJohn

[peludo]

25 minutes ago, snarkmachine said:

I just don't think the repeat watchers for a 3 hour movie will be there. It's a slog, even for fans. 

Nobody repeated Endgame or LOTR?

[Jonwo]

The Batman is a much needed win for WB after their terrible 2021 and I think DC will be the big driver for them not just with the live action films but also League of Super-Pets

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, LVB said:

This forum is insane. People fight over the most trivial things.

 

I love it.

 

[Borobudur]

4 minutes ago, PenguinXXR said:

 

Not that I think this will be the case, but using NWH's previews IM vs Batman's Pure Thursday would also put OW below $100M. 

 

Why is every sample that put Batman to below 100m are coming from Dec opener? Was it because of the preview was so huge and inevitably bring down the IM or people have the incentive to wait until holiday window to see it?

[Knights of Ren]

The sheer amount of idiocracy I just read over the last 3 pages was something else 😀

[Porthos]

14 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

You killed it with your numbers once again man!

 

I did well enough, but always room for improvement.  Thanks for the props, though, much appreciated. 👍

[Liiviig 1998]

12 minutes ago, M37 said:

The good reviews/WOM and lack of competition is going to help provide decent legs, as non-CBM fans eventually get over the mental hurdle and go see it, when given enough time & opportunity

 

Similar dynamic seen with Dune (2.6x) and previously Joker as well.  But a large OW and a still weaker GA market, probably puts the top end at 2.5-2.8x, really would be difficult to approach a full 3x like Shang-Chi

2.5x !!!! . Dune had day and date on HBO max . Batman has a favourable march  . don't think it's going below 2.7*

 

Did people here forget the joker. If there was a major issue with runtime and it's time . We would have seen a larger impact on post Trak . And before you say it's being influenced by fans . Every CBM has post Trak on opening night and that also has fans that influence them too.