TOP GUN MAVERICK/MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND THREAD | 126.7M 3-Day, 160.5M 4-Day. The biggest Memorial Day opening ever! | Doctor Strange 20.5M 4-Day, Bob's Burgers 14.8M

[M37]

31 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

If they had more PLF screens at multiplexes I think this would be even more likely. 
 

how many movies with repeat viewings have we all not ended up going to because of a lack of PLF. 

I’ll see Top Gun another two times before it gets booted out of IMAX for the dinosaur movie on June 10. I’d have likely seen it a couple more times if it wasn’t for that. 
 

That is the main takeaway for me as to where multiplexes need to go next. 
Top Gun and Jurassic World should really be available all day/every day in IMAX/PLF for a month minimum. 

With you there 100% - I don’t think the PLF skew in sales post-pandemic is a fluke, but a new market reality, and whichever exhibitor capitalizes on it and ramps up expansion first is going to have a major leg up on competition 

 

The downside being that it will put smaller chains & locations in a bind to compete, and limit potential for non-PLF titles like adult dramas, where waiting for steaming/VOD is a viable option 

[Brainbug]

Just now, M37 said:

With you there 100% - I don’t think the PLF skew in sales post-pandemic is a fluke, but a new market reality, and whichever exhibitor capitalizes on it and ramps up expansion first is going to have a major leg up on competition 

 

The downside being that it will put smaller chains & locations in a bind to compete, and limit potential for non-PLF titles like adult dramas, where waiting for steaming/VOD is a viable option 

 

I mean it makes sense. While you can come somewhat close to a theatrical experience with modern home theater set-ups, you cant imitate an IMAX experience at home or anywhere else except the movie theater. PLF's are a huge selling point to see certain movies on the biggest screen possible.

[Valonqar]

15 minutes ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

Can I say I am not so sure about Thor anymore? I am starting to wonder if it will indeed beat Ragnarok. I dunno, just feel that movie had a lot more going on in terms of hype and marketing.

 

It's totally beating Ragnarok. The question is by how much (a little, medium, lot) but it's gonna beat it. 

[Brainbug]

16 minutes ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

Can I say I am not so sure about Thor anymore? I am starting to wonder if it will indeed beat Ragnarok. I dunno, just feel that movie had a lot more going on in terms of hype and marketing.

 

Under Ragnarok would be a complete, total disaster of epic proportions. Love & Thunder is not simply a Ragnarok sequel, its riding on the goodwill from (ofc) Ragnarok, which made Thor one of the most beloved MCU characters, Infinity War, where Thor was a highlight and Endgame, where Thors reception was more mixed but overall still more positive than negative id say. Not to mention the appearence of the GOTG, which is a big plus and Batman who has lived long enough to become a villain.

 

It will comfortably gross 400M with 500M beeing a realistic shot imo.

[grey ghost]

Most shocking box office runs of the 21st century...

 

Avatar

Black Panther

Jurassic World

The Force Awakens

TOP GUN MAVERICK?

Endgame

American Sniper

My Big Fat Greek Weddiing

Deadpool

300/Wonder Woman

[grey ghost]

I think Thor 4 will open lower than MoM but have better legs.

 

This puts 400m in play but not 500m, imo.

[Legion Again]

Top5 adjusted* openings** by studio — 

Disney: 

Endgame 393M

TFA 296M

IW 285M

TA 263M

TLJ 247M

 

Sony:

NWH 260M (post-pandemic, didn’t adjust, theoretically maybe like 1% by now or whatever)

SM3 221M

SM1 200M 

SM2 143M

SMH 132M (Jfc Sony)

 

Universal: 

JW 250M

F7 176M

JP2 164M

JW2 164M

Minions 138M

 

WB:

TDK 222M

DH2 215M

TDKR 204M

BvS 193M

HP4 161M

 

Lionsgate:

THG:CF 196M

THG 193M

Twilight: New Moon 192M

Twilight:BreakingDawn:pt2 179M

T:BD:PT1 176M

 

Paramount:

Shrek 3 179M

Shrek 2 175M

IM2 164M

Revenge of the fallen 146M

IM1 143M

Fox 💀:

Revenge of the Sith 171M

X-men:Last Stand 158M

Deadpool 154M

X-men:United 143M

Attack of the clones 139M

 

All that to conclude… maverick probably won’t make it 😞

 

However I’m sure @Brainbug the Dinosaur will be happy with Universal’s list after jwd inevitably places. I don’t think anything else will get there this year or even any obvious 2023 candidates — maybe BPWF if the Chadwick memorial vibes hit just right?

 

* I took BOR’s data with 2019 atp and added ~10% 😛 

 

** As you likely already know I personally find ranks more meaningful to compare ows across eras than atp adjusting, but those would take too long to compile and there would be too many ties, so hey, at least this is somewhat interesting as well.

[ThomasNicole]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Not surprised it came down a bit - those late shoes are atypically weaker for a film of this size opening 

 

penciling in $52.5/39/37.5/28 = $157 4-day OW, but not going to be shocked if Sat tops $40M 

That sat would require less than 20% bump, seems pretty low imo

 

42-43M seems more like it 

[Legion Again]

Minor followup, oldest movie in top 5 adjusted openings:

Disney — 2012

Sony — 2002

Universal — 1997

WB — 2005

Lionsgate — 2009

Paramount — 2004

Fox — 2002

[Brainbug]

6 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Most shocking box office runs of the 21st century...

 

Avatar

Black Panther

Jurassic World

The Force Awakens

TOP GUN MAVERICK?

Endgame

American Sniper

My Big Fat Greek Weddiing

Deadpool

300/Wonder Woman

 

Would put It (2017), POTC: Curse of the Black Pearl (2003), Shrek 2 (2004), Passion of the Christ (2004) way up there. I think your list favours 2010s decade a bit.

[grey ghost]

2 hours ago, Jonwo said:

To think two years ago, people were claiming the death of cinema and going out in general. I wonder if they'll be eating humble pie now.

 

*Laughs in monkeypox*

 

J/K

 

 

[grey ghost]

So is star power back on the menu, boys or is TGM the exception to the rule?

[filmnerdjamie]

37 minutes ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

Can I say I am not so sure about Thor anymore? I am starting to wonder if it will indeed beat Ragnarok. I dunno, just feel that movie had a lot more going on in terms of hype and marketing.

 

Feels like it's riding 100% on how much everyone loved Ragnarok (admittedly I did too) and nothing else. Has a heavy "More of the same" vibe.

 

Don't sense $500M domestic grosses for that or especially Dominion.

[John Marston]

Thor 4 trailers have been weaker than Ragnarok. Hype is definitely not as high as MOM. Can see Top Gun beating it

[Krissykins]

14 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Most shocking box office runs of the 21st century...

 

Avatar

Black Panther

Jurassic World

The Force Awakens

TOP GUN MAVERICK?

Endgame

American Sniper

My Big Fat Greek Weddiing

Deadpool

300/Wonder Woman

I’d add: It, Paranormal Activity and Passion of the Christ. 

[Brainbug]

5 minutes ago, Show Me The Legion said:

Minor followup, oldest movie in top 5 adjusted openings:

Disney — 2012

Sony — 2002

Universal — 1997

WB — 2005

Lionsgate — 2009

Paramount — 2004

Fox — 2002

 

Side note, i always found it interesting how the JW trilogy so far paralleld the JP original trilogy. With the first movies breaking the OW record and coming relatively close in adjusted numbers when looking at first runs. And then both The Lost World and Fallen Kingdom opened at practically the samel level adjusted for inflation, as well as having very similar legs.

 

Now, this trend will better be destroyed in its tracks because i woudnt survive Dominion matching Jurassic Park 3 adjusted lol

[Legion Again]

Just now, grey ghost said:

So is star power back on the menu, boys or is TGM the exception to the rule?

Even this is more IP than star per se, right? I mean we don’t think a tom cruise original screenplay would be opening to 130M here. MI7A and 7B are expected to do well, but same there. 

[Krissykins]

2 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

So is star power back on the menu, boys or is TGM the exception to the rule?

It was already back on the menu when Sandra Bullock and Channing Tatum released The Lost City. 

[Jake Gittes]

8 minutes ago, Show Me The Legion said:

Paramount — 2004

 

Shrek 2 was not Paramount. Dreamworks still distributed its movies itself at that point.

[grey ghost]

6 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Would put It (2017), POTC: Curse of the Black Pearl (2003), Shrek 2 (2004), Passion of the Christ (2004) way up there. I think your list favours 2010s decade a bit.

 

I forgot Spider-man also.