Weekend Thread (6/3-5) | Top Gun 2 drops 29% for 90M. The smallest second weekend drop ever for a 100M+ opener!

[awkwardaardvark]

Just now, M37 said:

If people were willing to pay to see Black Widow at home to this degree, what makes you think they wouldn’t just wait and watch for free? Like they did with Dune

 

 

You’re participating in a sort of thinking that a lot of people absolutely love to do: counting money you don’t have. 
 

Dune had 1.9 million households watch it on HBO Max. Fantastic! How many of those people would have taken the effort to go to the theatre, pay for an expensive ticket, and then nearly bankrupt themselves on concessions to watch a long, meditative adaptation of a 50+ year old Sci-fi book, when all that is needed to give it a shot at home is a click of the button?

 

A fair few, but how many? 
 

Everyone agrees that releasing movies on streaming early affects box office gross. Randomly spitting out crazy figures like 200-300 million is just ridiculous. 

[EmpireCity]

8 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

You are assuming the opening box office aren’t affected by the streaming. That part is also unproven. You do know you can have a bigger start with same level of holding power. That is a very flawed assumption where people only assume the impact to take place when the movie hit digital, without factoring the impact have kicking in from the beginning. 

[lorddemaxus]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

If people were willing to pay to see Black Widow at home to this degree, what makes you think they wouldn’t just wait and watch for free? Like they did with Dune

But Black Widow was a different situation in regards to pandemic and people willing to go to the movies. And obviously day and date will affect a film's gross by a lot more than a 45-day window. I can give you that it would've made a 30% difference then (which also aligns with that BW number).

[lorddemaxus]

11 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

You are assuming the opening box office aren’t affected by the streaming. That part is also unproven. You do know you can have a bigger start with same level of holding power. That is a very flawed assumption where people only assume the impact to take place when the movie hit digital, without factoring the impact have kicking in from the beginning. 

Dude, I talk all about movies and I literally didn't know about when The Batman is going to streaming until like it's 2nd weekend. But sure, I'm pretty sure the majority of the movie-going population knew that Batman has 45-day window and Top Gun has a 120-day window on their opening weekends. 

Edited June 5, 2022 by lorddemaxus

[TomCruiseTop]

15 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

All I am asking for is an argument based on even simple math here instead of touting out random numbers.

You've obviously never been in an argument with Charlie. @IronJimboand I were routinely mocked for questioning his made up Endgame admissions calculations but being purple his word is law.

[Kalo]

These legs are insane! So great for Top Gun.

 

thanks to it's overperformance. it looking extremely likely that every weekend until at least the beginning of August should cross $100m.

[EmpireCity]

8 minutes ago, awkwardaardvark said:

You’re participating in a sort of thinking that a lot of people absolutely love to do: counting money you don’t have. 
 

Dune had 1.9 million households watch it on HBO Max. Fantastic! How many of those people would have taken the effort to go to the theatre, pay for an expensive ticket, and then nearly bankrupt themselves on concessions to watch a long, meditative adaptation of a 50+ year old Sci-fi book, when all that is needed to give it a shot at home is a click of the button?

 

A fair few, but how many? 
 

Everyone agrees that releasing movies on streaming early affects box office gross. Randomly spitting out crazy figures like 200-300 million is just ridiculous. 

 

A whole lot of them.  

 

They aren't crazy figures.  Again, I'll trust my judgement on this topic over a whole lot of others that have been dead wrong where the future of the industry was going.  

 

Also, "crazy figures" happen in this industry all the time.  You can witness one of them this weekend.  

[Eric Burnett]

Moderation

 

Yeah, this streaming argument has gone on long enough. We’re all not going to agree with each other, so might as well stop here.

[ThomasNicole]

Long theatrical windows matter but how much depends of the movie.

 

For movies like Top Gun yeah 75-90 days is way more interesting than 45 (i would argue that 120 is too much tho). 

 

For movies like DS2 it doesn't matter, 45 is more than enough, maybe it will lost 15-20M globally that would still need to be split, so honestly who cares?

 

And VOD doesn't even matter that much anyway, Sonic 2 / The Lost City / EEAOO / The Bad Guys are all available on digital and in illegal sites (some even in streaming platforms) for weeks and they're having excellent drops anyway. 

 

Most people don't care enough about these VOD / streaming dates, unless the studio do a huge marketing like WB did for Batman and in that case it actually hurt it.

[ThePhasmid]

If I may contribute to the thread, I will suggest no film in recent memory has provided the worth of a premium ticket price as much as Top Gun:Maverick. There is no way you can replicate the pure adrenaline rush provided by final act of this film presented in IMAX. It is a benchmark achievement for that platform. It's like an Omnimax Mountain Climbing documentary on cocaine. The experience is that visceral.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

28 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

 

I'll take that bet, bookmark or screencap this post.

You bet that Kosinski gets a Director nom for Top Gun? Ok yeah, I'll take the bet against that. I'm in.

[lorddemaxus]

12 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

over a whole lot of others that have been dead wrong where the future of the industry was going.  

Don't want to start that previous argument again, but just wanted to say I wasn't one of them. I said theaters aren't going to die and day-and-date won't stick for months. I even said the 17-day window won't stick and that was true for the most part. So don't say I am dead wrong without knowing what I said.

Edited June 5, 2022 by lorddemaxus

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

27 minutes ago, Macleod said:

 

Why should whether it's a sequel or not even be a factor in why it gets chosen?  Sure, there's not much precedent for it, but this movie has pretty much universal praise from the industry, critics, audiences.  Many say it surpasses the original.  Plus, it's a huuuuuuuge hit.  And it's NOT a superhero movie, a genre that like it or not, the Academy still seems to have some bias against (though I would argue there have been very few worth considering for the Oscars).  I think MAVERICK will be there at the end of the year in Oscars talk, in one way or another.  

 

 

Conservative members of the Academy?  Are you joking?  Quite a few...  

I'm just talking about perception. While this indeed is perceived to be superior, it's a very hard task for sequels to happen because there's lot of expectations. It's why the rare ones are like Godfather and Mad Max

 

Maverick will probably make all of PGA + AFI + NBR as well as the Editing guild which keeps it in the running, but I still don't know how much more the industry will support it. Unlikely for DGA, not happening for SAG Ensemble, I think WGA is 50/50 and only happens if there's lots of ineligible films. If Globes happened, it would only make Song. I don't think it'll do very well at BAFTA outside of the technicals

[TomCruiseTop]

18 minutes ago, Eric Mitchell said:

Moderation

 

Yeah, this streaming argument has gone on long enough. We’re all not going to agree with each other, so might as well stop here.

Seems more like a discussion to be honest. Isn't that the point of an online forum? To discuss (and sometimes debate) these very topics?

[Daxtreme]

I have bad ears so I can't go to the IMAX anymore  

 

I really wish I could with the way you guys are hyping up IMAX with this movie.

 

Oh well, it is what it is. At least I can go in normal theaters. Happy for the movie!

[TomCruiseTop]

20 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

They aren't crazy figures.  Again, I'll trust my judgement on this topic over a whole lot of others that have been dead wrong where the future of the industry was going.  

It has been strange seeing so many people who claim interest in the box office almost willing the industry to die.

[Macleod]

6 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I'm just talking about perception. While this indeed is perceived to be superior, it's a very hard task for sequels to happen because there's lot of expectations. It's why the rare ones are like Godfather and Mad Max

 

Most perceptions are that this is one of those.  And I'm just talking about the Oscars -- I agree that I don't know about it happening for many other guilds' Awards.  (Maybe PGA?)

[Krissykins]

Yeh it’s a completely relevant discussion when the film in question is Top Gun Maverick, which specifically has its own story with streaming (lead actor fighting against it) and therefore it’s doing exceptional business. 
 

On a kind of side note, is the 120 days specifically for paramount+ or does he want to keep it off iTunes/PVOD/Disc for that long too?

Edited June 5, 2022 by Krissykins

[wildphantom]

1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

This is not proof. The movie had great drops throughout its run. Proof would be the movie falling off a cliff.

nah. I know plenty of people that either saw it once then watched it on ‘streaming’ or watched it on ‘streaming’ first time out. 
 

there’s one thing releasing a movie 45 days after it’s opened on free streaming. Another altogether to put a perfect version out there to the world for ‘free’ on opening day. 
 

It literally lost WB millions and millions of dollars. Hence why they’re not going to do it going forward. 
 

day and date is over. Here’s hoping the days of 45 days until free streaming are numbered too. 

[Siki]

Hopefully I'm not breaking rules by continuing this streaming convo. But, would just like to point out that a limited theatrical window definitely affects the overseas gross. The entire world might not have HBOMax or P+, but we have unrivaled access to Piratebay.