WEEKEND THREAD: Lightyear implodes with 51M DOM, 85.6M WW. THE LAST PIXAR MOVIE EVER?????😱😱😱 | Dominion #1 with 58.66M, Top Gun 44M

[Ethan Hunt]

I wouldn't be as optimistic as to suggest a 20% drop next weekend coming off a weekend inflated by father's day and Juneteenth 

[BruiseCruise]

So did that 1 mil or so from wednesday just disappear into thin air?

[wildphantom]

18 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

But what does Disney have vs other streaming channels to keep you?  Especially at their higher price point (since they, Netflix, and HBO Max are the kings of the price point)?  They haven't put their whole catalogs on, so they are relying on this stuff to keep families happy.  B/c most families are not just looking for another Disney channel at a higher price point for Disney plus...especially when Paramount gave them a free year, which means all of Nick...(yes, that's why I could drop)...

Last time I looked the most popular things on Disney+ were their Marvel and Star Wars shows.  Not week 7 new movie releases. 
 

Encanto might well have tapped up tons of streams, but it still would have months later when it debuted on there. 
And if families are cancelling as they’re not getting almost immediate new movies on there then are you saying they’re therefore not going to spend any money on Disney films full stop?

 

“Sorry kids, you can’t ever watch Encanto as it’s not on Disney+, despite the fact we’ve bought or taken you to see every Disney/Pixar movie pre-Disney+”. 
 

Any loss in subs for the reasons in not getting movies quick enough would be made up and then some by them actually having to pay to watch them separately. 

I appreciate what you’re saying and everybody has a budget, but a new Disney or Pixar animated film is much more than just content.  It matters and should be treated as such. Or they’ll just suffer the consequences of damaging a brand that’s been the envy of entertainment for decades on end. 

Edited June 18, 2022 by wildphantom

[JohnnyGossamer]

23 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

 

 

Super great hold for DS2 as the movie is looking for a sub-20% drop this weekend. One last nice hold and you can consider this is sort of like a farewell run before June 22. This prove again, 45 days window isn't long. 

This one especially irritates the fuck out of me because they had perfect setup to give it two more weeks... Movies go to Disney+ on Wednesday. Thor 4 opens Thursday late afternoon/early evening 7/7. Why in the heck would you not just drop Strange 2 on Disney+ on 7/6 the day before Thor 4 opens? It then gets the 4th of July holiday for last boost then it's advertised as Strange debuting on D+ and Thor 4 debuting in theaters essentially within 24 hours of another... A mini streaming event followed by a mega theatrical event. I know it's not a ton more money but still, man, wow. Just seems dumb not to give it a 59 day window that includes summer days AND the best box office weekend of the summer. Just idiotic to me.

Edited June 18, 2022 by JohnnyGossamer

[titanic2187]

2 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

This one especially irritates the fuck out of me because they had perfect setup to give it two more weeks... Movies go to Disney+ on Wednesday. Thor 4 opens Thursday late afternoon/early evening 7/7. Why in the heck would you not just drop Strange 2 on Disney+ on 7/6 the day before Thor 4 opens? It then gets the 4th of July holiday for last boost then it's advertised as Strange debuting on D+ and Thor 4 debuting in theaters essentially within 24 hours of another... A mini streaming event followed by a mega theatrical event. I know it's not a ton more money but still, man, wow. Just seems dumb not to give it a 59 day window that includes summers AND the best box office weekend of the summer. Just stupid to me.

Maybe Disney think that a $600m for TGM isn't locked so they decide to help

Edited June 18, 2022 by titanic2187

[Blankments]

37 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

If not even a known IP like Buzz Lightyear can bring in families, then what hope do Strange World and Elemental have? Sonic is so, so lucky to have such a massive, multi-generational fanbase.

Said it earlier in the thread but if the covid concerns were legit (they definitely weren’t), they should’ve moved Turning Red to this date. With the reviews and WOM it got, it would’ve certainly at least matched the weekend of lightyear in box office while definitely getting much longer legs

 

the known ip of lightyear is a negative; not a positive when it comes to Pixar movies appealing broader than just kids

[EmpireCity]

$20m-$21m for JWD on Saturday for an early number.  

[JohnnyGossamer]

3 minutes ago, Blankments said:

Said it earlier in the thread but if the covid concerns were legit (they definitely weren’t), they should’ve moved Turning Red to this date. With the reviews and WOM it got, it would’ve certainly at least matched the weekend of lightyear in box office while definitely getting much longer legs

 

the known ip of lightyear is a negative; not a positive when it comes to Pixar movies appealing broader than just kids

Wait... Then, when would they release Lightyear? In March? Or, push it back?

 

I actually think Turning Red should've just released when it was supposed to in theaters... In March a weekend after The Batman. It's perfect counter programming. That was asinine not to release it then honestly. Probably does something like 150M+ DOM then goes to Disney+ after whatever window they'd give it... Say 45 days or so. Would've benefited from spring breaks, Easter through March too. It was a perfect release date for it. I know Lightyear isn't doing well but it's very much more so a summer blockbuster release than Turning Red in my view...

[CJohn]

Fantastic early numbers for TG2 and JW3. Hopefully they keep themselves on that range as the day progresses. JW3 is winning the weekend. Mindblowing.

[Blankments]

1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Wait... Then, when would they release Lightyear? In March? Or, push it back?

 

I actually think Turning Red should've just released when it was supposed to in theaters... In March a weekend after The Batman. It's perfect counter programming. That was asinine not to release it then honestly. Probably does something like 150M+ DOM then goes to Disney+ after whatever window they'd give it... Say 45 days or so. Would've benefited from spring breaks, Easter through March too. It was a perfect release date for it. I know Lightyear isn't doing well but it's very much more so a summer blockbuster release than Turning Red in my view...

I mean, hypothetically if I’m in charge of Disney I release turning red and Luca exactly where they were supposed to anyway in theaters. My post is about the bullshit reasoning given that TR was sent to streaming because of omicron

 

but sure in my covid fearing Chapek idiocy hypothetical world we move TR to summer and Lightyear to the end of September slot just because TR’s marketing campaign was in full swing at the time of the move

[EmpireCity]

39 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

But what does Disney have vs other streaming channels to keep you?  Especially at their higher price point (since they, Netflix, and HBO Max are the kings of the price point)?  They haven't put their whole catalogs on, so they are relying on this stuff to keep families happy.  B/c most families are not just looking for another Disney channel at a higher price point for Disney plus...especially when Paramount gave them a free year, which means all of Nick...(yes, that's why I could drop)...

 

Did I miss a memo that Disney+ has an expensive price point?  Isn't it like $7 a month?  

[superduperm]

Cars 3 true opening Friday: $16.8M

 

Lightyear’s true opening Friday: $15-15.5ishM? (Still seems unclear what the Wednesday + Thursday previews were).

[ThomasNicole]

Ridiculous for Lightyear 

 

But very good for TGM and Dominion so, that's nice

[JohnnyGossamer]

5 minutes ago, Blankments said:

I mean, hypothetically if I’m in charge of Disney I release turning red and Luca exactly where they were supposed to anyway in theaters. My post is about the bullshit reasoning given that TR was sent to streaming because of omicron

 

but sure in my covid fearing Chapek idiocy hypothetical world we move TR to summer and Lightyear to the end of September slot just because TR’s marketing campaign was in full swing at the time of the move

Oh, I agree. Luca should've released in theaters with the 29.99 thing they were doing then for Disney+ before going to stream there free after something like 45 to 60 days. That was dumb too. Sure, the box office was muted that summer... But, Jungle Cruise managed 120M DOM with the 29.99 thing going on. That was also very dumb. The only Pixar that should've went straight and only to streaming was Soul. That's it. I'd have loved to have seen Luca and Red in Dolby at my theater. So fucking stupid.

[Alex SciChannel]

20 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

$20m-$21m for JWD on Saturday for an early number.  

Only a 30% increase huh. I expected more. But it's still early so we'll see.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Well, at least the Lightyear number went up just a little from the 20.2 we expected to 20.7... It's still a family movie... Wouldn't we expect something close to or just over 20M for LY today as well?

[filmlover]

Just now, Alex SciChannel said:

Only a 30% increase huh. I expected more. But it's still early so we'll see.

We're now in the heart of summer. Saturday increases are bound to be on the lower side compared to every other time of year (especially when we have a big moviegoing day coming up tomorrow).

[Alex SciChannel]

Just now, filmlover said:

We're now in the heart of summer. Saturday increases are bound to be on the lower side compared to every other time of year (especially when we have a big moviegoing day coming up tomorrow).

A 30% Saturday increase would make Dominion on track for only 55M-56M weekend, which is under Deadline's estimate of 57.1M which is usually a lowball.

[TwoMisfits]

19 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Did I miss a memo that Disney+ has an expensive price point?  Isn't it like $7 a month?  

 

$8/month...which is higher than Paramount (free for tons now, but normally $4.99/month) - or Prime, which is also free if you are doing their shipping anyway (which is how many families "price" it).  Both of those streaming services deliver a ton of kids' product.

 

Disney is closest in price to Netflix and HBO Max, so they need to deliver like them to keep subscribers...and since they can't deliver the adult product like they can, they do need to be king of kids.

 

So, they can't tell their subscribers "after 45 days, we want another $20 to see this  kids' movie now" b/c they'll all leave.  What they can do is say "this movie will be free in 60 days (vs 45)" in a slow "boil the frog" plan...and then next year, maybe go to 75...

 

 

Edited June 18, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[ringedmortality]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

Disney is closest in price to Netflix and HBO Max,

 

Isn't HBOMAX like 15 dollars a month and Netflix 20 dollars a month