Weekend Thread (6/24-26) | Actuals: Elvis 31.2, TGM 29.6, JWD 26.7, Black Phone 23.6, Lightyear 18.1

[ban1o]

 I might change my opinion if Elvis has crazy legs. But if it has an average-decent run I can't see him winning. He was great in the role but Oscars don't really like young male actors lol. The Male and Female Acting categories are completely different. 

[ban1o]

4 minutes ago, TinaDuraes said:

Ok then, King Richard bombed at the box office and Will Smith still won. None of the Best Actors contenders will make much money unless they really nominate Cruise or people are hyped for Brendan Fraser comeback and the new Aronofsky performs like Black Swan.

Comparing Will Smith to Austin Butler is a choice lmao. 

 

Y'all really think Austin could win???? Like seriously??? 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

2 minutes ago, ban1o said:

lol when did I ever say CODA wasn't going to win BP... I actually loved CODA too lmao 🤣

 

 

God, you missed the point. I'm talking about making proclamations about things and yet being proven wrong. Lots of people speak in definitive and certain terms about Oscars as if they know, yet nobody called CODA winning until PGA, nobody expected Chastain, etc. They do crazy things. Hell, look at the box office. Nobody saw this Top Gun wave coming.

 

While I would be inclined to agree it's a longshot for Butler...why would you write-off an acclaimed biopic performance from winning? This is the type of role and actors eat up. He could easily win the SAG, if the Globes happened he'd probably get Comedy, etc. There is a path. He has a big campaign. Very wrongful to make such assumptions when we have no idea what contenders will even release this year and what films will even be contenders. DiCaprio already has an Oscar and will Flower Moon even be 2022? Will Fraser be another Rourke for The Whale and will it be too dark, etc? Jackman regularly flops with Oscar bait and Zeller has high expectations after The Father. Dustin Lance Black hasn't written a good film since Milk so why would Rustin suddenly be good enough for Colman Domingo to win? See, a lot of questions. And Elvis will very likely be the highest grossing Actor contender.

[TinaDuraes]

1 minute ago, ban1o said:

Comparing Will Smith to Austin Butler is a choice lmao. 

 

Y'all really think Austin could win???? Like seriously??? 

I'm not comparing anything and no I don't. I'm just saying that box office doesn't matter either for the actor category.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Mulder said:

Dude what? lol Top Gun: Maverick is bigger then literally everything that released around the same time as Fallen Kingdom

Did you forget a little movie called Incredibles 2?

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

4 minutes ago, ban1o said:

 I might change my opinion if Elvis has crazy legs. But if it has an average-decent run I can't see him winning. He was great in the role but Oscars don't really like young male actors lol. The Male and Female Acting categories are completely different. 

Eddie Redmayne won the Oscar when he was like 32. Adrien Brody was even younger. Malek was 37 when he won. Same for Jamie Foxx. Butler will be 31 by time of Oscar. If anything, his age would only become part of the narrative and reason to vote for him. Fact that this young nobody pulled off an Elvis performance so young is his campaign. 

[ban1o]

Just now, TinaDuraes said:

I'm not comparing anything and no I don't. I'm just saying that box office doesn't matter either for the actor category.

aah okay lol. I agree box office doesn't necessarily matter. I think the early release date/Austin being a young actor will hurt it more than "average" box-office. I just thought the "comparison" was funny though lol. 

[ban1o]

5 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Eddie Redmayne won the Oscar when he was like 32. Adrien Brody was even younger. Malek was 37 when he won. Same for Jamie Foxx. Butler will be 31 by time of Oscar. If anything, his age would only become part of the narrative and reason to vote for him. Fact that this young nobody pulled off an Elvis performance so young is his campaign. 

LOL I would actually love to debate this but I  not going to clog up the weekend thread😅 Agree to disagree? 

 

 

Edited June 26, 2022 by ban1o

[Mulder]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Did you forget a little movie called Incredibles 2?

Incredibles 2 was just one movie, this summer is way busier.

[Legion Again]

FK 1st week: 200M for other movies

2nd: 210 

3rd wknd: ~160

 

JWD: 105M

2nd wk: 155M

3rd wknd: ~110M  

 

There’s a clear objective answer to what had more competition — sure ain’t JWD. 

[Juby]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I have TGM at 630-640 at the moment. +10-20M with Labor Day expansion.

 

Good call @Legion and Thunder of A+ & 4000+ Top 10.

I have TGM final at $631-636m right now. With some expansion or great late legs it might go higher, closer to $650m.

 

I also don't see TGM at $600m on July 10th yet, bit under $590m imho.

 

Being in all time Top10 (it will finish even in Top9) after $126.7m opening weekend is just insane. Almost all members of this club were +$200 million openers. After Maverick's OW I thought it can finish its domestic run at 520m max.

[Webslinger]

40 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

A terrible theory I unfortunately believe explains why it didn't break out: the trailers for Elvis had too much rap music and coolness for the olds it was supposed to appeal to. (and I still think this number is solid considering news impacts and other adult films performances)

After seeing the movie with an overwhelmingly white, old, and probably very conservative audience, I actually don't think that's a bad theory at all. Granted, I saw it at a pub cinema and suspect that the alcohol probably invited more animated reactions (particularly in the form of some loud, dismissive comments about the Easter Sunday trailer that ran beforehand), but there was definitely some grumbling on the way out about how "political" certain parts of the film were and dismissive jabs about "that other music" on the soundtrack.

[MattW]

Yeah that's what I have right now, 635-ish with a small labor day bump. Jurassic World expanded the weekend before labor day weekend, made just over a million the week before the expansion, and another 12.3m from there to the end. Top Gun I think will be just a touch higher leading into labor day so I think it depends on how much of a push it gets, could take it up into the 640s, maybe more but I wouldn't bet on it at this point.

 

Edit: looking again, 660 with another 10-15 if the expansion is bigger. 

Edited June 27, 2022 by MattW

[Mulder]

28 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

FK 1st week: 200M for other movies

2nd: 210 

3rd wknd: ~160

 

JWD: 105M

2nd wk: 155M

3rd wknd: ~110M  

 

There’s a clear objective answer to what had more competition — sure ain’t JWD. 

Most of that is from one movie. 2018 was a literally dead summer. Though @charlie Jatinder I don't know why you're trying to act objective here when you've been on this path from Day One with it lol. 

[GipJo]

42 minutes ago, TinaDuraes said:

I'm not comparing anything and no I don't. I'm just saying that box office doesn't matter either for the actor category.

Box office has nothing to do with his Oscars chances.

A male actor, came from kids television.

Young and never nominated before.

June release.

In a film that isn't really a must see.

His performance is good enough but not something exceptional.

[Legion Again]

12 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Most of that is from one movie. 2018 was a literally dead summer. Though @charlie Jatinder I don't know why you're trying to act objective here when you've been on this path from Day One with it lol. 

This has gotta be the funniest conception of how to measure competition I've ever seen

[Mulder]

8 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

This has gotta be the funniest conception of how to measure competition I've ever seen

One film isn't 'more' competition. The 2018 summer is regarded as a dead one and Top Gun: Maverick alone is more competition by also being a live action franchise film vs Incredibles 2's different audience, and that's just Top Gun: Maverick.

[DAJK]

13 minutes ago, Mulder said:

One film isn't 'more' competition. The 2018 summer is regarded as a dead one and Top Gun: Maverick alone is more competition by also being a live action franchise film vs Incredibles 2's different audience, and that's just Top Gun: Maverick.

No. Summer 2018 was massive lol.

[nguyenkhoi282]

I was very ahead of myself (and everyone else) and had TGM at $800M 3 weeks ago so Imma just sit here and wait until it pulls some black magic cuz that ain't happening lol.

[Legion Again]

If we did, for some reason, want to exclude TGM and I2 respectively:

FK1st wk: 75

2nd wk: 130

3rd wknd 130

 

JWD: 26

2nd: 86M

3rd wknd: ~ 80