Weekend Thread (6/24-26) | Actuals: Elvis 31.2, TGM 29.6, JWD 26.7, Black Phone 23.6, Lightyear 18.1

[Agafin]

2 hours ago, setna said:

 

What kind of drops do you expect for getting a chance of 700 M?  I see it nearly impossible....

 

I would like to know too. Even with some exceptional drops I have a hard time seeing TGM topping Infinity War. How the hell would $700m be considered likely, let alone a "lock"?

Edited June 26, 2022 by Agafin

[longleo90]

I think 650m would be a more feasible number

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

 

It's a shame because at least 2 of the horror films from this year that opened wide: Northman (yes, I consider it horror) and Men are absolutely fantastic films IMO. But certainly didn't do anything at the box office. And to be expected given their starting points in terms of premise and style are indeed rather niche.

 

I think Halloween Ends is part of the problem so I feel torn about it.

 

Nope, Beast, Barbarian and the Menu (I'm probably being optimistic with that last one) would be great options to break out. I haven't seen any trailers or info about Smile or Barbarian yet but I'd be very optimistic on what I've seen from Nope and Beast. And while I haven't seen any Salem's Lot stuff either and have little interest myself, the name King alongside a known property of his usually does okay and we're a bit starved of vampires recently.  

Yeh, I wasn’t a big fan of “Men” unfortunately. And I know people say “to be expected” and that a lot of the horrors in 2022 “have not had mass appeal” etc, but that’s not an excuse. The studios released these films in more than 2,000 cinemas.

[Cooper Legion]

After Mon should be about 526M off a 51M 7day. Say 14M flat boost from July 4 and labor day, then needs 160M from the normal component of legs. About 24% drops, not too outlandish. I would personally say about 675 right now but with a solid (say 35%ish) chance to 700+

Edited June 26, 2022 by Legion and Thunder

[Krissykins]

Some positive Dominion news for you @Brainbug the Dinosaur, JWD was #3 here in the UK on Friday behind Elvis and Top Gun, but overtook both of them yesterday to return to #1. 

[Valonqar]

10 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

After Mon should be about 526M off a 51M 7day. Say 14M flat boost from July 4 and labor day, then needs 160M from the normal component of legs. About 24% drops, not too outlandish. I would personally say about 675 right now but with a solid (say 35%ish) chance to 700+

 

would be nice but lets see how Thor affects it in terms of losing screens/theaters first. Many promising runs get cut short due to that. 

[Cooper Legion]

24 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

would be nice but lets see how Thor affects it in terms of losing screens/theaters first. Many promising runs get cut short due to that. 

It will be comfortably #3 that weekend and Thor doesn't look like a true monster, screens shouldn't be too tight.

[JohnnyGossamer]

5 hours ago, Mulder said:

Incredibles 2 was just one movie, this summer is way busier.

I don't know about this... Incredibles 2, Sicario 2, Uncle Drew, Ant Man 2, Skyscraper, Hotel Transylvania 3, Equalizer 2, Mama Mia 2, Mission Impossible 6, The Meg all released either the weekend before JWFK (I2) or the weekends directly after (all others listed) through 8/8/18. Remember, World Cup was ongoing that summer and JWFK released weekend after the Father's Day holiday in 2018 (6/22/18)... So, unlike JWD, while JWFK did get the benefit of July 4 (on a Wednesday that year) sooner in its run, it didn't get the benefit of Father Day's. Not to mention, JWD had the added benefit of Juneteenth being a federal holiday this year and being observed on the Monday after Father's Day. I'd definitely argue that the overall competition in 2018 for JWFK was more so than what JWD will and has faced. JWD holiday setup is better too with two holidays early in its run and each falling on or being observed on a Monday which is even better.

[filmscholar]

 

Wow, these Top Gun legs are getting ridiculous.   I mean the original had good legs too  But that was the 1980's where movies stayed on the Big Screen for months.   We are in a different time now.   These drop percentages are just crazy week to week.   It beat Jurassic  on  a few weekdays this week now it's going to win Saturday against two New Films.   Wow, Box Office Story of the Year.  

 

 

 

Edited June 26, 2022 by filmscholar

[vale9001]

Jurassic World 3 clearly has bad WOM and people are not liking it. You can read it everywhere.

But nowadays some ofthe youngest audience especially in America are so uncurious and with any will to try something new if they go to theaters they still choose that. Some kind of movies at some level of distribution can't make less than a certain level no matter how the movie is bad. 

[Gavin Feng]

Wait, LY is going to drop 60% this weekend? Horrible hold for an animated movie.

[robertman2]

2 hours ago, Jonwo said:

In regards to Super Pets, I think the fact August and September are so empty will help it a lot. Might be WB and WAG's highest grossing non Lego film.

 

Speaking of WAG, they currently don't have a film for 2023 as Coyote vs ACME got undated but I wonder if they might push up Toto to say late September or early October?

 

 

Coyote vs ACME got undated? God damn it

[TwoMisfits]

So, I nailed Elvis not growing out of its narrow demo (sorry @EmpireCity), and I nailed TGM taking the weekend.

 

Not bad - still missed slightly on the dinos and toys, although I feel vindicated about the dinos Saturday and was right that dinos and planes would beat Elvis on both Sat and Sun...

[vale9001]

Is this superpets a real thing? Just saw the trailer. Hollywood needs help.

Anyways it's gonna flop.  Less than Lightyear WW. 

Edited June 26, 2022 by vale9001

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, vale9001 said:

Is this superpets a real thing? Just saw the trailer. Hollywood needs help.

Anyways it's gonna flop. 

 

It's real.  It's gonna land somewhere between Teen Titans Go to the Movies (which had a criminal underperformance b/c it was actually good) and Secret Life of Pets.

[vale9001]

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

It's real.  It's gonna land somewhere between Teen Titans Go to the Movies (which had a criminal underperformance b/c it was actually good) and Secret Life of Pets.

They're releasing on big screens a movie about the dog of superman?. That's seems a mid idea even for a saturday 7 AM animated series on Cartoon network. They need a cure for the desperates

Edited June 26, 2022 by vale9001

[Deep Wang]

7 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

Someone tell me how bad LY is doing

 

[Jonwo]

19 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

They're releasing on big screens a movie about the dog of superman?. That's seems a mid idea even for a saturday 7 AM animated series on Cartoon network. They need a cure for the desperates

 

I think it's a good idea personally because talking animals do well as animated films and people like superheroes, this just combines the two. Whether the film is good remains to be seen but I wouldn't be surprised if it has a solid run.

 

One thing it does have in its favour is that while completely original, it's neither a sequel nor a spin-off.

Edited June 26, 2022 by Jonwo

[Krissykins]

24 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

It's real.  It's gonna land somewhere between Teen Titans Go to the Movies (which had a criminal underperformance b/c it was actually good) and Secret Life of Pets.

So an opening between $10-100m? 😂 I kid. 
 

Still can’t believe how much of its audience SLOP2 lost, phew. Talk about a complete rejection. 
 

I wouldn’t be surprised if Super Pets opened in the teens though. 

Edited June 26, 2022 by Krissykins

[TwoMisfits]

6 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

So an opening between $10-100m? 😂 I kid. 
 

Still can’t believe how much of its audience SLOP2 lost, phew. Talk about a complete rejection. 

 

I will admit that unlike all the other movies this summer, even though I normally do well calling animated, I have ZERO idea how this movie will do.  None.  

 

Will it hit b/c of the supers connections?  Maybe

Will it hit b/c of pets? Maybe

Will it hit b/c of the comedic voice connection?  Maybe

Will it totally miss and be seen as straight to digital quality?  Maybe

 

If you put a gun to my head and said pick a number, I'd say "will there be a deal on tickets?"  And when I still got no answer, I'd sigh and say $37M OW...but it could be anywhere from $10-$100M...(okay, maybe not $100M - I might bring that down to $80M, just to say I'm better than Deadline)...

Edited June 26, 2022 by TwoMisfits