Weekend Thread (6/24-26) | Actuals: Elvis 31.2, TGM 29.6, JWD 26.7, Black Phone 23.6, Lightyear 18.1

[Cheddar Please]

I've been hearing a lot of sentiment recently at this movie's going to do o/u Ragnarok adjusted for inflation, but personally I believe that's bunk. As Legion said, this movie is tracking for high 20s preview, and given that this is almost certainly going to be a crowd pleaser, I would estimate 6.5x IM for 170-190m opening, which isn't even all that impressive as if this was 2017 that would be about 140-150m, only a slight increase from Ragnarok's OW. But more importantly, social media tracking for this movie has put it much higher, to be expected, given that the character has had a major role in two $2B hits since then, not to mention this movie is coming off the crowd pleaser that was Ragnarok, whereas Ragnarok was coming off The Dark World.

 

My prediction (for now):

180m OW (28m x 6.5)

470-520m DOM (2.7-2.9x multi)

[baumer]

4 minutes ago, StormbreakerXXR said:

 

I'm a Pixar looney because I don't think it's cool you're happy a film is failing at the box office? I wonder if I could tell you what you are without getting warning points... 

 

I have very very rarely enjoyed a Pixar film. They don't appeal to me and I think that they brainwashed everyone into believing that they are some kind of Charity that makes movies for the benevolence and benefit of the homeless and destitute LOL pixar, obviously owned by Disney is a giant conglomerate of a company that makes movies simply to make money. They don't care about you they don't care about me they're just like every other company out there that makes movies. They want to make money.

 

Yes I'm glad they're finally experiencing a disappointment. Every movie they make makes money hand over fast it's about time they experienced one that doesn't.

 

You want to fly off the rails and go tell me what you think of me, go for it bro I really don't care. Been a member here way too long to let other people's opinions of me affect me. ,😜

[Juan Caballo]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

Don’t disagree with any of that, but also means it lacks the spoilers/need to see immediately effect of Strange or NWH, and also not too much on the calendar behind it where there’s a need to keep pace with releases. So a somewhat softer OW and better legs, basically double Ant-Man & Wasp with a couple extra million for Thursday 

I agree. 

 

Was just pointing out that Thor reception sounds much more promising than Doctor Strange 2 was. 

[M37]

3 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

Ehhh… I don’t really think this is the most reasonable way to talk about the numbers. T-12 comps being 24 doesn’t really suggest the final num will be 24 unless the pace has been steady vs the comp. Haven’t done too much extrapolation recently but seems to be pointing more towards 28-30 for now.

I agree that the trajectory, going from low $20s after first week to mid $20s now suggests Thor may continue to gain ground on comps and come up … but that’s not a certainty, and data in hand says $24-25M. We could even see sales slow as people break from routine for 4th of July holiday (and then ramp back up in the last few days)

[Jonwo]

Pixar's output is mostly excellent but I do think that they've become a bit bloated in recent years and actually scaling things back a little would be beneficial. They don't need to spend $200m on a film and I think having lower budgets make you more creatives in some way.

 

 

[Moviedweeb]

31 minutes ago, baumer said:

Nothing pleases me more in terms of the box office, than seeing a Pixar film tank. Never been a big Pixar guy, never really been a big toy story guy either. So this is just a temporary bump in my serotonin levels.

We need all types of films to succeed for the health of theatrical. 

[baumer]

Just now, Moviedweeb said:

We need all types of films to succeed for the health of theatrical. 

Except a shitty Pixar movie that didn't bring back Tim Allen. I'm sure Disney is going to be okay. They're probably still counting all their money from endgame.

[Issac Newton]

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On grossed an estimated $170K this weekend from 6 locations in NY/LA.

The film will expand to additional cities next weekend.#MarcelTheShell #BoxOffice @A24 @marcelthemovie

— BoxOfficeReport.com (@BORReport) June 26, 2022

[Krissykins]

I can’t find a good reason as to why Thor 4 would open under Doctor Strange 2. I’m expecting $200m+ OW. 

[Issac Newton]

Everything Everywhere All At Once grossed an estimated $533K this weekend (from 524 locations). Estimated total domestic gross stands at $66.09M.#EverythingEverywhere #BoxOffice @A24 @allatoncemovie

— BoxOfficeReport.com (@BORReport) June 26, 2022

[Brainbug]

Wit the recent (very positive) reactions to Thor and the ongoing strong pre-sales, 150M OW should be the floor for Thor imo. I think it will open in the 170s.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I can’t find a good reason as to why Thor 4 would open under Doctor Strange 2. I’m expecting $200m+ OW. 

 

Hype. They're not on the same level. L&T will likely surpass MOM in domestic total but I'd be surprised if it opened over $180M, much less $200M. 

[Moviedweeb]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

Except a shitty Pixar movie that didn't bring back Tim Allen. I'm sure Disney is going to be okay. They're probably still counting all their money from endgame.

I haven’t seen the film and I’m not a huge Pixar / Toy Story guy (although I find them to be quality animated films - and isn’t the Tim Allen component explained by it not being based on the toy, but the fictional person the toy was based on?), but anyway… for me it’s less about Disney and more about the strength of the market during a precarious time and, as some who loves the theatrical experience, I want to see films across all genres and demographics score right now. 

[BruiseCruise]

Man MI7 would have cleaned up if it was able to keep its previous date

[ThomasNicole]

140M for Thor not only would require presales to stagnate (it's pointing to mid 20s already and at good pace), but also the same big frontloadness we've seen for recent MCU titles but for a movie that doesn't have nearly the same urgency that DS2 for example, it's not realistic at all.

 

150M is probably the floor at this point even if something goes wrong. I don't really believe 200M can happen atm as well, but something in the middle is probably the realistic goal right now. 

 

28-30M previews with around 6x multiplier for 170-180M OW.

Edited June 26, 2022 by ThomasNicole

[M37]

17 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

I've been hearing a lot of sentiment recently at this movie's going to do o/u Ragnarok adjusted for inflation, but personally I believe that's bunk. As Legion said, this movie is tracking for high 20s preview, and given that this is almost certainly going to be a crowd pleaser, I would estimate 6.5x IM for 170-190m opening, which isn't even all that impressive as if this was 2017 that would be about 140-150m, only a slight increase from Ragnarok's OW. But more importantly, social media tracking for this movie has put it much higher, to be expected, given that the character has had a major role in two $2B hits since then, not to mention this movie is coming off the crowd pleaser that was Ragnarok, whereas Ragnarok was coming off The Dark World.

 

My prediction (for now):

180m OW (28m x 6.5)

470-520m DOM (2.7-2.9x multi)

We almost certainly not getting a 6.5x for an MCU movie in July in the current market - that’s what TGM had with a holiday Sunday

[That One Girl]

i like most Pixar movies but i don’t see how Lightyear bombing is anything but something to be happy for. a necessary wake-up call that they can’t live off boring IP exercises forever. probably ensures a higher percentage of “original” pixar movies are funded.

[SchumacherFTW]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

i like most Pixar movies but i don’t see how Lightyear bombing is anything but something to be happy for. a necessary wake-up call that they can’t live off boring IP exercises forever. probably ensures a higher percentage of “original” pixar movies are funded.

Or Chapek uses this to funnel pixar to D+ permanently. Fuck Chapek! 

[cannastop]

6 minutes ago, Moviedweeb said:

I haven’t seen the film and I’m not a huge Pixar / Toy Story guy (although I find them to be quality animated films - and isn’t the Tim Allen component explained by it not being based on the toy, but the fictional person the toy was based on?), but anyway… for me it’s less about Disney and more about the strength of the market during a precarious time and, as some who loves the theatrical experience, I want to see films across all genres and demographics score right now. 

The premise of Lightyear is that it's a fictional movie inside the Toy Story universe.

Though it is funny how some anti-Pixar firebrand is just tossing bombs about Tim Allen not being in the movie like he cares. 🙄

[cannastop]

4 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

i like most Pixar movies but i don’t see how Lightyear bombing is anything but something to be happy for. a necessary wake-up call that they can’t live off boring IP exercises forever. probably ensures a higher percentage of “original” pixar movies are funded.

yeah but I want Turning Red Part II: Abby goes Fredo.