THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER WEEKEND THREAD | The hammer swings down with 144.2 DOM, 302 WW, the 3rd-biggest 2022 opening | Minions 46.1, TGM 15.5, Elvis 11.2, JWD 8.6

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

My top 5 summer hit before summer start.

1. JWD 475m

2. DS2 450m

3. Thor:LT 400m

4. Minion  250m

5. Lightyear 235m

 

6. Top gun 2 225m

 

In short, summer 2022 come above my prediction because of a movie that I look down the most. Still, I am so happy for this surprise. 

 

 

I didn't had Summer prediction right before Summer but last June was thinking

 

Thor 4 - 450M

DS2 - 400M

Lightyear - 350M

JW3 - 350M

 

 

[M37]

46 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

 

 

About 1.9 with this buzz I'd say. So from M37's weekdays (which are quite close to mine) I would add (192-29)*.9=147 for 340ish finish.

I think it matters why it has less than stellar WOM. It's not like Eternals, which was too serious/adult, or even MoM, which was seen as a bit of a bait and switch/false advertisting, and "too scary" - both of these turned off families, and impacted legs. Thor L&T is "bad" because its unserious, not a fan movie, but that's better for families, especially with July weekdays, no?

 

Since you had all the data compiled, I went ahead and whipped this up, comparing total gross to the first 7 days of release, not removing previews (Opening Week Multiplier). The July releases are noted in lighter blue, which all had better legs than one might expect for reception (except for BW, obviously), and here is where Thor L&T would slot with $192M first week and $350M total gross. Seems about right to me

 

 

 

[John Marston]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

US embarrassed Potter films. No $500M film is just unfair of US

 

 

 

always thought it was weird that Hunger Games outgrossed  Potter and Twilight movies came very close to their grosses domestically. Hasn't HP sold way more books? HG and Twilight must have really appealed to non book readers more

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

2000s was the worst era for blockbusters and of all the reclamation/nostalgia projects we DONT need it's people pretending any of the Transformers films or any of the Pirates films after the first 2 were good. It's not that they were bad really, so much as they were incoherent noise made by committee with tonal whiplash.

What's with this "pretending" thing? Nobody is pretending anything, people are just giving their honest opinions. 

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

It is funny to imagine DH2 IM with 3PM previews though.

Probably same.

 

3PM shows will

1. Deflate gross with matinee tix

2. Just make midnight showings empty 

Edited July 10, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[THUNDER BIRD]

Didn't Harry Potter had 43 million previews? 

 

And weekend 169.

Edited July 10, 2022 by THUNDER BIRD

[Cooper Legion]

@M37 we’ve got basically no difference in projection (340ish vs 350ish) I just think tacking the previews on helps the old ones’ nums without corresponding to a real superiority in holding behavior.

[titanic2187]

The weekend aggregate total come in around 232m, the highest of the year and the 2nd highest since pandemic. Should go higher in actual but still come slightly disappointing because I was hoping it got closer to 250m.

[M37]

18 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Should I keep reading posts to see if anyone pointed out they are the best 2 "big" movies of the summer, too?

😉

 

[Grebacio]

18 minutes ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

2000s was the worst era for blockbusters

 

Nah, I would say the 2000s were better than the 2010s

 

2000s had LotR trilogy, 6 Potter movies, Avatar, Batman Begins+Dark Knight, peak Pixar, Pirates, 2 good Spiderman movies and 2 good X Men movies.

2010s had Planet of The Apes, Hunger Games, Mission Impossible 4-6 and a few good MCU movies

Edited July 10, 2022 by Grebacio

[Cooper Legion]

Also the only summer that seems to be outperforming its reception to me is AM1, which  is explained by the tiny raw size and being a first entry. I think if we did a regression with reception, first vs sequel, and OWeek rank (or adjusted OW gross or whatever) as variables we’d find almost no summer vs not summer relationship — including the weekdays ~kills the vacation benefit (as it should).

Edited July 10, 2022 by Legion and Thunder

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

4 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

The weekend aggregate total come in around 232m, the highest of the year and the 2nd highest since pandemic. Should go higher in actual but still come slightly disappointing because I was hoping it got closer to 250m.

 

Might get an aggregate weekend over $250M if BPWF opens over $210M. If not then, the best shot would be Dec 16-18.

[ringedmortality]

1 minute ago, Grebacio said:

Nah, I would say the 2000s were better than the 2010s

 

2000s had LotR trilogy, 6 Potter movies, Avatar, Batman Begins+Dark Knight, peak Pixar, Pirates, 2 good Spiderman movies and 2 good X Men movies.

2010s had Planet of The Apes, Hunger Games, Mission Impossible 4-6 and a few good MCU movies

 

2010s had the best X-men films with First Class, Deadpool, and Logan

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, Grebacio said:

Nah, I would say the 2000s were better than the 2010s

 

2000s had LotR trilogy, 6 Potter movies, Avatar, Batman Begins+Dark Knight, peak Pixar, Pirates, 2 good Spiderman movies and 2 good X Men movies.

2010s had Planet of The Apes, Hunger Games  and a few good MCU movies

I think a few good MCU is understatement.

 

MCU alone did the heavy lifting for 2010s, and 2010s also got HP DH 2 & DH 1.

 

Best Star Wars film ever; TLJ 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

5 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

Didn't Harry Potter had 43 million previews? 

 

And weekend 169.

Yeah, it did. Correct.

 

Though somehow DH2 didn’t get to $400M+ DOM for some reason, despite it being treated as the finale of the Harry Potter-franchise. 😲

It’s not like the WOM of that film was horrific or bad, right? 🤷🏻‍♀️
 

Since it was the most critically-acclaimed of all the HP-films.

[baumer]

13 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

US embarrassed Potter films. No $500M film is just unfair of US

 

Maybe because most Potter films really weren't that good. 🤷

[DAR]

21 minutes ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

2000s was the worst era for blockbusters and of all the reclamation/nostalgia projects we DONT need it's people pretending any of the Transformers films or any of the Pirates films after the first 2 were good. It's not that they were bad really, so much as they were incoherent noise made by committee with tonal whiplash.

 

I've even seen people trying to reclaim the 00s bin juice anus dribble of parody movies: White Chicks, Little Man, Meet the Spartans, Epic Movie bilge on the basis that they 'weren't woke' or something, as if that in and of itself makes them ok.

 

No. The relative homogeneity of competently-made but predicable and safe movies now is not a reason to suddenly flutter eyes at movies that were the reason we needed the relative homogeneity of competent-made but predictable movies.

 

Spiderman 3 is an interesting precedent for what people are experiencing wit the MCU now. It has all the good things people liked about the first two and the same flaws, but by the third movie the good things were less effective and the flaws more obvious. Thor Love and Thunder and Ragnarok are perfect examples. All the problems people have with L&T were, arguably, worse in Ragnarok and all the positives are still there. It's just that we've seen this before now.

 

2000s gave us LOTR.  

[JohnnyGossamer]

I'm assuming most of these will come up a bit with actuals. With Deadline reporting 42.1M SAT for TLT, I'd think the SUN number has a chance or is it even likely to come in something like 2M to 3M higher than the Disney projection. And, as mentioned, I expect just about everything else to come up a little bit too.

[Cooper Legion]

2010s also has Inside Out, Frozen, Spiderverse… but 2000s has the sicko Pixar run. 

[Grebacio]

2 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

2010s had the best X-men films with First Class, Deadpool, and Logan

Not a fan of Deadpool, but you have a point with First Class and Logan