Weekend thread 7/15-7/17 | Actuals: Thor 4 46.63M, Minions 26.83, Crawdads 17.25, TGM 12.26, Elvis 8, Paws of Fury 6.31

[baumer]

12 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I think some people overestimate this "bad reception" talking about US. While i do think GA was disappointed with it, the cinephiles liked quite a lot. 

 

Even Get Out isn't exactly the usual mainstream type of horror flick, it's just a rare case where GA unexpectedly also clicks with something different. US followed the same path and pleased the group of people who liked this type of movies, it just failed in click with GA the same way, it happens, but it isn't a disaster either.

 

There's nothing inherently wrong with doing a more niche movie. It's up to Jordan to decide what type of projects he want to build his carreer around. 

 

This time he chose to try a really mainstream picture, but there's no momentum due to marketing that don't show anything substantial, let's see how it goes. If it ended up underperforming i think the promotion is the one to blame, not US reception.

 

The legs on Us were pretty horrible. 2.3 is pretty shit regardless of the genre. I realize it opened to a massive number but the multiplier will tell you that people weren't overly fond of it. If nope opens to a huge number, I have no problem eating crow but I think this one is in for a rough ride.

[vale9001]

11 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Mojo have L&T at $713 million worldwide. Ummm, nope!

I bet this is their final prediction for the WW total and someone posted the wrong thing. 

[MrPink]

2.3x for horror is pretty normal I feel like. Not gonna say it had great wom or even good, it was pretty mixed but I also don't think it was bad to the point that people en masse will never see another Jordan Peele movie again. Which is why WOM and reception will be key for this one to get a higher number of fence sitters to go see it.

 

Honestly I liked Us a pretty decent amount, perhaps more for the craft than the story.

[krla]

50 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

The whole thing seems more like a Key & Peele sketch. I'd actually love it if the marketing is an elaborate cover for this being an outright parody. 

That's the vibe I got from it, too. 

[vale9001]

A parody? So it's his The village?. 

[ringedmortality]

If Peele follows Shaymalan's career then that means this is his Signs? When are we getting the magazine cover that says "the next Spielberg?"

Edited July 17, 2022 by ringedmortality

[reddevil19]

1 minute ago, ringedmortality said:

If Peele follows Shaymalan's career then that means this is his Signs? 

It would be fitting... 

[Pinacolada]

2 hours ago, grey ghost said:

 

 

Yeah it should've pulled a Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2.

 

I think that had a 25% increase from vol 1.

Thor Love and Thunder doesn't have China though, a market where Ragnarok made over $100m. That absolutely must be considered

[baumer]

2 minutes ago, MrPink said:

2.3x for horror is pretty normal I feel like. Not gonna say it had great wom or even good, it was pretty mixed but I also don't think it was bad to the point that people en masse will never see another Jordan Peele movie again. Which is why WOM and reception will be key for this one to get a higher number of fence sitters to go see it.

 

Honestly I liked Us a pretty decent amount, perhaps more for the craft than the story.

 

Well maybe I'm just letting my complete dislike of the movie affect my judgment but yes 2.3 can be a standard horror movie multiplier especially when it opens it strongly as did but going by what people I've spoken to said there wasn't a lot of love for US. But like I said if I'm wrong, wouldn't be the first time, right?

[4815162342]

2 hours ago, MrPink said:

I think people were interested to see the film do Portman justice. 
 

Still don’t give a shit about sif 

 

You could say Sif is a Blindspot of yours

[baumer]

8 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

If Peele follows Shaymalan's career then that means this is his Signs? When are we getting the magazine cover that says "the next Spielberg?"

 

I'm thinking this is going to be more like Lady in the water.

[4815162342]

But also this is the only Sif @MrPink cares about

 

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

Posting what I wrote at the beginning of June during the 2nd weekend of Dr Strange when people were looking at calling it a disappointment. Stand by it now :

 

 

Quote

 

Black Widow is not a release that can be reasonably evaluated.

 

The MCU D+ Shows don't really show anything BoxOffice wise. They have had varied receptions, sure, but none overwhelmingly negative to anywhere near the point of damaging the brand.

 

Eternals was a known risk but, yes, a disappointment (and as commentated above, I think likely would have been regardless of context)

 

I would say over the next year if more than two of:

 

Thor goes under 850m

Black Panther 2 goes under 900m

Quantumania goes under 650m

GOTG3 goes under 800m

and The Marvels goes under 800m

 

......then the MCU is visibly tailing off. Whereas if one or none of those things happen then it isn't.

 

If more than two of 

 

Thor goes over 950m

BP2 goes over 1b

Quantumania goes over 800m

GOTG3 goes over 900m

The Marvels goes over 900m

 

.....Then the MCU is going from strength to strength.

 

 

I called par for Thor 4 at 850-950WW.

 

Any expectations above that were either silly or, though they might not have thought it, projecting it as an unprecedented success.

Edited July 17, 2022 by Ipickthiswhiterose

[ringedmortality]

The Village is Shyamalan's masterpiece.

[Ezen Baklattan]

NOPE is definitely a bit of a weird case and IMO the second trailer didn't really do it any favors (and I'm still really excited for it.) They're really taking the mystery box as far as they can with it, but I worry they cracked it open just enough to let some of the steam out.

 

I think the ball's in the court of how good WOM ends up being. I still don't see an opening weekend below mid-to-high 30s but it's gonna need good WOM to go further. I'm super hyped for it (I adored both of Peele's movies so far but I'm not shocked at US's weaker WOM) but I still don't know what to expect from it. It certainly helps that most of August is gonna be dead so there's more room in the market than Us had back in April 2019.

 

I think it easily wins the weekend and Thor drops over 50% again. Tentative final prediction: $39m/$102m.

[grim22]

17 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

I bet this is their final prediction for the WW total and someone posted the wrong thing. 

No, they put the WW total in the OS total column. So they double dipped.

[MrPink]

15 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Well maybe I'm just letting my complete dislike of the movie affect my judgment but yes 2.3 can be a standard horror movie multiplier especially when it opens it strongly as did but going by what people I've spoken to said there wasn't a lot of love for US. But like I said if I'm wrong, wouldn't be the first time, right?

 

I just feel like, if it were Peele coming off two bad movies or less than well received movies, audiences might see it as a trend. But still feel his future output could go either way. I think most people should and probably would keep an open mind on Nope for now.

[Potiki]

A lot of rookie number numbers on theatrical rewatches

 

 

I would say ESB and Jurassic Park I've seen over 20 times in cinemas although both are from rereleases only. 

 

Here is a list of films I’ve seen 10+ times in cinemas

 

Star Wars OT

Jurassic Park

The Lion King

Spirited Away

LotR trilogy

Finding Nemo

Revenge of the Sith

Dead Man’s Chest

Inside Out

The Force Awakens

Moana

Your Name

The Last Jedi

Mission Impossible Fallout

Parasite

 

Again a lot from rereleases over the years, but don't think any will add to the list anytime soon as ticket prices have over doubled for me  up until 2019 I got student prices where you paid $10 a year and got $10-15 tickets depending on format pricing now for adult tickets is $20-30+. from 2015-2019 I was going to the cinema twice a week if not more now I think this year I've been less than 20 times so far. 

[ringedmortality]

2 minutes ago, Potiki said:

Dead Man’s Chest

 

Dead Man's Chest but not At World's End?

Edited July 17, 2022 by ringedmortality

[XXR vs XXR]

FWIW, I'm not at all concerned about the MCU as market. The audience is there. 

 

Thor: Ragnarok - China - Russia - Banned Markets = $700M WW USD

 

L&T matching that is fine for the film it is (i.e below average) when you consider where OS markets are right now in terms of ER vs the dollar. If L&T had similar reception to Ragnarok AND was putting up these kinds of numbers, then I'd be worried. I know it's only speculation on my part, but I believe that if L&T had Ragnarok's WOM it would do do $900-950M WW in the same markets. I don't know enough about the battle between ticket inflation and ER suppression to prognosticate on actual ticket sales in OS markets, but domestically it would probably be about a 10-13% increase in actual tickets sold over Ragnarok.