Weekend thread 7/15-7/17 | Actuals: Thor 4 46.63M, Minions 26.83, Crawdads 17.25, TGM 12.26, Elvis 8, Paws of Fury 6.31

[grim22]

 

 

[Eric Duncan]

Following Elvis from its previews gives the movie 20.5M, unless this is exclusively aimed towards fans of the book. Seems fine enough I suppose.

[Ezen Baklattan]

I think it'll be a good bit frontloaded (i.e. maybe a 30% drop tomorrow if not higher) but I think it gets to at least $7.5m overall today and makes it to a $15m weekend. Remember when Paper Towns made over half its opening weekend from Friday alone?

[p a p i]

Gang shit

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, Ezen Baklattan said:

I think it'll be a good bit frontloaded (i.e. maybe a 30% drop tomorrow if not higher) but I think it gets to at least $7.5m overall today and makes it to a $15m weekend. Remember when Paper Towns made over half its opening weekend from Friday alone?

That was aimed towards teens/young adults who are much more prone to frontload something than older women (the primary audience for this). This should be on track for around $20M for the weekend, a solid result considering the poor reviews and zero star power in the cast.

[Eric Duncan]

6 minutes ago, Ezen Baklattan said:

I think it'll be a good bit frontloaded (i.e. maybe a 30% drop tomorrow if not higher) but I think it gets to at least $7.5m overall today and makes it to a $15m weekend. Remember when Paper Towns made over half its opening weekend from Friday alone?

Isn't Crawdads aimed more at moms than teenagers? Feel that would at least mean an IM of 8

[M37]

That’s a … fine preview number for Crawdads? Would expect a younger skewing audience than Elvis, so a moderately weaker IM

 

Mid to high teens weekend, basically where tracking had it 

 

Now we wait to see how low Paws of Floppy can go 

[Krissykins]

That’s a very solid start. 
 

It’s been expected to be in the mid to high teens on tracking for weeks. 

Edited July 15, 2022 by Krissykins

[Issac Newton]

Netflix's $200M THE GRAY MAN debuted with the most money ever for a Netflix film in previews last night.

According to the metrics.

Which are proprietary.

No soup for you.

— Exhibitor Relations Co. (@ERCboxoffice) July 15, 2022

[Ezen Baklattan]

8 minutes ago, Eric Odinson said:

Isn't Crawdads aimed more at moms than teenagers? Feel that would at least mean an IM of 8

Yeah, it won't be NEARLY as bad a Paper Towns and didn't mean to imply such but there's still definitely gonna be a rush factor here.

[Eric Duncan]

10 minutes ago, M37 said:

That’s a … fine preview number for Crawdads? Would expect a younger skewing audience than Elvis, so a moderately weaker IM

 

Mid to high teens weekend, basically where tracking had it 

 

Now we wait to see how low Paws of Floppy can go 

https://deadline.com/2022/07/box-office-thor-love-and-thunder-paws-of-fury-where-the-crawdads-sing-2-1235064783/

 

505K for previews. (I like Paws of Floppy by the way, only because the main character does in fact have floppy ears. Very subtle title there)

[Issac Newton]

Purple guys can have any numbers but not Netflix's numbers :((((

[vale9001]

Crawdads has a 50+ target and some appeal to youngest women.

You people are too conservative with this movie as it's something like Twilight with teens going at the first showing the first day of previews with the poster of the hottest guy in the cast 😅

It's something like the help and the girl on the train. 

Edited July 15, 2022 by vale9001

[Eric Duncan]

RT Verified Aud scores:

 

Crawdads: 93%

Mrs. Harris: 93%

Paws of Fury: 71% LMFAO

[Issac Newton]

PAWS OF FURY
$505K Thursday Domestic Previews #PawsOfFury #BoxOffice

— Boxoffice Pro (@BoxOffice) July 15, 2022

[Grebacio]

 

[M37]

4 minutes ago, Eric Odinson said:

https://deadline.com/2022/07/box-office-thor-love-and-thunder-paws-of-fury-where-the-crawdads-sing-2-1235064783/

 

505K for previews. (I like Paws of Floppy by the way, only because the main character does in fact have floppy ears. Very subtle title there)

Eek - even with a generous 12-14x for summer, that’s not hitting $7M 

 

And thank you, just seems to work. My other working title was Paws of Sound and Fury, Signifying Nothing, but a bit of a mouthful 

[harrisonisdead]

It'll be interesting to see how Crawdads' demographics shake out when we get some PostTrak stats. The book was definitely popular among middle-aged women, but not nearly exclusively - it also saw popularity all over online reading circles and I feel like most bookish young people have read it. Taylor Swift and Daisy Edgar-Jones (obv a much smaller draw) also have some younger fanbases. That said, still don't think it would have a huge rush factor among those demographics.

[Grebacio]

On 7/13/2022 at 3:10 PM, Grebacio said:

Paws of Justice will have either the second or third lowest OW for an animated movie since 2020

For reference these are some other animated movies and their OWs

The Croods 2 (Nov 2020) - 9.72M

Raya (Mar 2021) - 8.52M

Spirit 2 (June 2021) - 6.10M

Boss Baby 2 (July 2021) - 16M

Paw Patrol (Aug 2021) - 13.14M

Addams 2 (Oct 2021) - 17.35M

Ron's Gone Wrong (Oct 2021) - 7.30M

Encanto (Nov 2021) - 27.20M

Sing 2 (Dec 2021) - 22.32M

Bad Guys (Mar 2022) - 23.95M

Lightyear (June 2022) - 50.57M

Minions 2 - 107.01M

 

Which are the odds Paws of Fury ends up getting the lowest OW?

[Eric Duncan]

4 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

Which are the odds Paws of Fury ends up getting the lowest OW?

The goal should be under Strange Magic for worst animated opening in 3,000+ theaters. That would be very, very funny. Seems unlikely at this point, but it should comfortably be nestled around The Wild Thornberrys Movie and Quest for Camelot numbers.