NOPE Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates: Nope 44, Thor 22.1, Minions 17.71, Crawdads 10.3, TGM 10

[grim22]

 

 

[Doffy]

11 minutes ago, Jiffy said:

My fondness for even numbers was hoping for Friday strong enough to keep TGM above $10m for this weekend.

With  acutals i think 10m is possible.

[vale9001]

Friday number for Elvis?. 

 

Crawdads is seeing an 11-11.5M weekend. 

[jma22]

35 minutes ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

Well actually Elvis has a 85 milion budget which is quite large, and yet is struggling to gain 200 milion, how can we call that a success?

Stop trolling ... You are saying  ^Elvis  is struggling to gain 200M^ when it  will easily surpass $205M tomorrow and 235-245 at the end of his run .. cmon  guy.....

Elvis is a big success although you don't like it

[Eric S'ennui]

https://deadline.com/2022/07/box-office-nope-1235074926/

 

Quote

UPDATED, Saturday AM: Nope‘s box office figures haven’t changed that dramatically, in fact Universal is calling the Jordan Peele movie slightly lower with a Friday of $19.5M, and $44.5M opening. The pic received a B CinemaScore and 79% Comscore/Screen Engine PostTrak exits. I think many (involved with the pic and in the industry) were hoping for at least $50M, but this type of start isn’t to be complained specifically when it comes to an original movie.

 

As we mentioned, the pic is the longest of Peele’s movies, and winces from the media have been that the pic is uneven, and doesn’t deliver on the level of Get Out and Us, both of which had endings that kept moviegoers buzzing. It happens with auteur filmmakers when they’re on a hot streak; not every movie is a homerun. But again, we shouldn’t be complaining about a mid $40M start. Hopefully this R-rated horror sci-fi movie isn’t more frontloaded than many are already projecting.

 

Turnout here was 58% guys, and a massive 70% with the moviegoing demo of 18-34. Diversity pull as 35% Caucasian, a huge 32% Black moviegoers, and 21% Latino and Hispanic and 12% Asian/other. Nope played best on the coasts, particularly the West with nine of the top ten theaters coming from NYC and LA. Imax and PLFs are driving 35% of ticket sales so far.

 

[vale9001]

2 minutes ago, jma22 said:

Stop trolling ... You are saying  ^Elvis  is struggling to gain 200M^ when it  will easily surpass $205M tomorrow and 235-245 at the end of his run .. cmon  guy.....

Elvis is a big success although you don't like it

 

WW Elvis will end with not less than 270M

[The Dark Alfred]

8 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

Friday number for Elvis?. 

 

Crawdads is seeing an 11-11.5M weekend. 

 

6

(5)

Elvis

Warner Bros.

$1,825,000

+53%

-21%

3,105

$588

$113,901,273

29

[BruiseCruise]

79% comscore how does that compare to Us/Get Out or other recent horror successes?

[VanillaSkies]

1 hour ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Thor 6.4 m Fri according to reddit.

 

If that holds , 21.5-22m+ weekend(-53%)

would you look at that, comes in way above early estimates and all the doom and gloom was once again premature. It’s doing just fine. It lost IMAX this week and is still chugging along.

[LegendaryBen]

40 minutes ago, Jiffy said:

My fondness for even numbers was hoping for Friday strong enough to keep TGM above $10m for this weekend.

I hope you are not calling this a failure because TGM has done very well. 

[Jiffy]

4 minutes ago, LegendaryBen said:

I hope you are not calling this a failure because TGM has done very well. 

Not at all.

[CaptNathanBrittles]

47 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

Another terrific Friday increase for TGM en route to 700m. Bit of a distance to the great Cameron juggernauts, but it is still producing the best summer legs ever. Another sizeable chunk taken from the deficit to BP.  The closest summer release to it way way below on the list is March of the Penguins. It's a fun run to track that's for sure.

 

Biggest domestic 9th Friday:

1	Feb 13, 1998	Titanic	$5,730,480	3,002	$1,909	$349,124,777
2	Feb 12, 2010	Avatar	$4,540,671	2,685	$1,691	$642,146,324
3	Jul 22, 2022	Top Gun: Maverick	$2,740,000	3,160	$867	$628,305,887

 

Highly impressive though they are they aren't even the best summer legs ever for a TOP GUN movie. TOP GUN opened to $8.2m (~$21.7m 2022) and ended with $177m (~$478m 2022).

[BruiseCruise]

Odds that Thor L&T finishes under Ragnarok domestically?

[CaptNathanBrittles]

TOP GUN: MAVERICK HIGHWAY TO $700M DAY 57

 

BLACK PANTHER: $41.6m ahead

TOP GUN 2 GAIN: +$1.2m

 

CURRENT SEA LEVEL: $658.2m

LOCK ON BOGEY: $686.3m

AVERAGE (LAST 31 DAYS): $680.87m (+0.02% YD)

[harrisonisdead]

46 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

79% comscore how does that compare to Us/Get Out or other recent horror successes?

Us was 80% overall positive, Get Out was 84%

 

EDIT: In terms of recent horror, Scream 2022 had a 79%, Halloween Kills had a 69%, Old had a 61%, The Conjuring 3 had a 78%, A Quiet Place 2 had an 83%.

Edited July 23, 2022 by harrisonisdead

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

1 hour ago, jma22 said:

Stop trolling ... You are saying  ^Elvis  is struggling to gain 200M^ when it  will easily surpass $205M tomorrow and 235-245 at the end of his run .. cmon  guy.....

Elvis is a big success although you don't like it

I'm not trolling and I don't have an opinion on Elvis (I haven't watched it yet). I simply think that for a movie that has a 85 milion dollar budget, reaching 200 mil. after 2 months of its release is nothing to be excited about.

 

We have different metrics for what a "big success" is... barely making the production budget money back ain't it for me. I don't care if my opinions are unpopular here, I look at the data and comment on that, regardless of my own taste.

 

A 70 mil budget movie making 70 mil WW (the northman)? BOMB

An 85 mil budget movie making 250 mil WW (Elvis)? On a thin line between Ok and underperforming.

A 25 mil budget movie making 110 mil WW (Everything Everywhere..)? Success.

A 170 mil budget movie making 1.25 bil WW (TG:M)? BIG success.

 

Anything that generates a money loss it's a failure, if the money loss is big it's a bomb, if it makes the money back but nothing more then it can be seen as a slight success or a disappointement taking expectations into the equation, if it makes more than its budget it's a success.

 

Of course, this is only about theatrical, streaming/home video can change a movie's financial fate and eventually turn a flop into a success.

Edited July 23, 2022 by ThePrinceIsOnFire

[Liiviig 1998]

23 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

Odds that Thor L&T finishes under Ragnarok domestically?

Zero chance . 320-330m.

[M37]

40 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

would you look at that, comes in way above early estimates and all the doom and gloom was once again premature. It’s doing just fine. It lost IMAX this week and is still chugging along.

More than likely, the IMAX/PLF shows were driving the presales, so without them, it looked weaker in early day snapshots, but standard showing walk-ins still came through 

[Eric S'ennui]

From Deadline

 

Quote

Here’s how the weekend looks:

1.) Nope (Uni) 3,785 theaters, Fri $19.5M, 3-day $44.5M/Wk 1

2.) Thor: Love and Thunder (Disney) 4,370 (-5) theaters, Fri. $6.4M (-54%), , 3-day $21.2M (-54%)/Total $275.3M /Wk 3

3.) Minions: Rise of Gru (Uni) 3,816 theaters (-298), Fri $5.1M (-37%),  3-day $16.8M (-37%), Total: $296.9M/Wk 4

4.) Where the Crawdads Sings (Sony) 3,650 theaters, Fri $3.1M (-57%),3-day $9.77M (-43%)/Total $37.7M/Wk 2

5.) Top Gun: Maverick (Par) 3,160 (-132) theaters, Fri $2.7M (-21%), 3-day $9.45M (-23%), Total $635M/Wk 9

6.) Elvis (WB) 3,105 (-200) theaters, Fri $1.8M (-21%), 3-day $6.1M (-24%) Total $118.1M/Wk 5

7.) Paws of Fury (Par) 3,481 +6) theaters, Fri $1.1M (-54%), 3-day $3.8M (-39%)/Total $13.7M/Wk 2

8.)  The Black Phone (Uni) 2,055 (-222) theaters, Fri $1.05M (-36%), 3-day $3.4M (-36%)/Total $78.5M/Wk 5

9.) Jurassic World Dominion (Uni) 2,165 (-495) theaters, Fri $840K (-43%), 3-day $2.85M (-45%), Total $365.4M/Wk 7

10.) Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (Foc) 1,001 (+21) theatres, Fri $410K (-42%),  3-day $1.34M (-31%)/Total $4.6M/Wk 2

 

[John Rambo]

1 hour ago, grim22 said:

 

 

I partially agree with Sean. Even though i liked the gray man alot it really didnt feel like 200M movie tbh...