NOPE Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates: Nope 44, Thor 22.1, Minions 17.71, Crawdads 10.3, TGM 10

[Valonqar]

51 minutes ago, datpepper said:

 

Worst part is that Variety was hyping up the potential box office numbers going into the weekend, throwing out that "few would be surprised" if it went over $50m. Kinda funny for them to set up big expectations for Nope, and then criticize those who took their box office expectations to heart. Wacky.

 

Talk about screwing over yourself and the movie you were cheering. 

 

6 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

 56% of 44mil is less than 40% of 71mil. is the brand growing or is he just losing casual viewers for his fans?

 

All of this. It's very annoying when trades throw around audience share % without a proper context. They did that with Ms Marvel too in order to give its poor viewership a positive spin (but but look at under 25 and minority viewer %!) 

[M37]

26 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

 56% of 44mil is less than 40% of 71mil. is the brand growing or is he just losing casual viewers for his fans?

Not less by much, and when you adjust for ticket prices - in that Peele fans were probably more like to see IMAX, etc - it’s likely close to the same number of people

 

I don’t think it’s losing casuals per se, so much as word got out this was a weird/mixed genre film, so some of the typical horror viewers that came out for Us, passed on Nope 

[vale9001]

I told you Jordan peele now is very frontloaded. 

From this point a 45M debut is better than 55. With 55 or even 60 legs would have been even bad. As I said something like the Village (50M OW, 110 Total). At least With 45 maybe it can have a similar multiplier than Us. 

Edited July 25, 2022 by vale9001

[Jiffy]

TGM went up to $10.3m with actuals.

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

Once again, Variety actually follows the  path most of the users on this forum are taking, using the very same logic. 

Basically, 44 M can't be disappointing  because it's an original R-rated movie that opened in pandemic times without a major star. 

Yet, what really is relevant here is the big budget which is: A) 3.5 x higher than US, B ) WAYYY higher than what every other horror movie gets.

 Variety does mention this briefly, but really the budget/total gross ratio is all that matters when analyzing the financial performance of a movie to call it a success. Yes, some nice encouraging datas are coming from this opening (i.e., Peele is a draw for american audiences) but this is more relevant for financing the  future projects than it is for judging this one's performance.

 

I'll die on this hill, but the same goes for Elvis. Ok, we shouldn't compare it to Bohemian Rapsody because that was a complete exception, but still how does this fare BETTER than "Rocketman" when it has MORE THAN DOUBLE its budget? If I'm putting 40 M on a movie, I will be happy to get 200 M back, but if I pay 85 M, how can it be more succesful if I get 250 M? I feel like people here don't really look at the mathematics and get distracted by all the collateral circumstances. If I'm freaking paying Tom Hanks and a total of 85M, I don't want to have a result that's only slightly better than a movie with no names which costs less than half of that money...

 

Yet, if we follow this forum's logic on budget, wheter you spend 20 or 200 M, if it's an R-rated movie  that earns 200 M it's a success. Wheter you pay 20 o 200 M for a biopic aimed at adults and you gain 200 M, it's still the same success. I think this is nothing but bogus.

Edited July 25, 2022 by ThePrinceIsOnFire

[CaptNathanBrittles]

TOP GUN: MAVERICK HIGHWAY TO $700M DAY 58

 

BLACK PANTHER: $39.8m ahead

TOP GUN 2 GAIN: +$1.68m

 

CURRENT SEA LEVEL: $660.1m

LOCK ON BOGEY: $678.6m

AVERAGE (LAST 32 DAYS): $680.79m (-0.01% YD)

 

TOP GUN: MAVERICK HIGHWAY TO $700M DAY 59

 

BLACK PANTHER: $38.4m ahead

TOP GUN 2 GAIN: +$1.4m

 

CURRENT SEA LEVEL: $661.6m

LOCK ON BOGEY: $682.4m

AVERAGE (LAST 32 DAYS): $680.84m (+0.007% YD)

 

[titanic2187]

Nope up from estimate by $366k

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days
Jul 21, 2022	P	$6,400,000		3,250	$1,969	$6,400,000
Jul 22, 2022	1	$19,538,690		3,785	$5,162	$19,538,690	1
Jul 23, 2022	1	$13,938,155	-29%	3,785	$3,682	$33,476,845	2
Jul 24, 2022	1	$10,890,065	-22%	3,785	$2,877	$44,366,910	3

[The Dark Alfred]

That's another outstanding Sunday hold for TGM on its flight to 700m. The sky is becoming clearer and clearer.

 

Biggest domestic 9th Sunday:

 

1	Feb 14, 2010	Avatar	$9,870,516	2,685	$3,676	$661,217,278
2	Feb 15, 1998	Titanic	$9,388,756	3,002	$3,128	$371,562,244
3	Jan 19, 2014	Frozen	$3,974,379	2,979	$1,334	$332,403,215
4	Jul 24, 2022	Top Gun: Maverick	$3,293,798	3,160	$1,042	$635,836,882

 

 

 

Edited July 25, 2022 by The Dark Alfred

[titanic2187]

18 hours ago, John2015 said:

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris grossed $1.35 million in its second week with a mix of arthouse and commercial theaters among top 10 locations and a nice hold from its opening weekend (-31%). ...

 

Cinemas like the Plaza Frontenac in St. Louis, Avalon Twin in Washington, D.C., and Camelview in Phoenix joined commercial venues in the top 10. Ticket sales in Week 2 expanded outside the coasts. Demos were similar, with a hefty 44% over 55, and 71% female.

 

“The biggest takeaway is that we are starting to get older audiences back into theaters,” Lisa Bunnell, distribution president of Focus Features, said Sunday. And, “The top 10 this weekend was a good mix of commercial and specialty theaters that we don’t see consistently anymore.”

 

Bunnell called Mrs. Harris an upbeat movie with good word of mouth. “People are starting to talk about it, and going back to the movies, which is what we need in order to see the specialized market come back,” she said. Overall, “We are starting to see more normalized moviegoing habits.”

 

 

https://deadline.com/2022/07/mrs-harris-goes-to-paris-specialty-box-office-1235076409/

The actual drop even lower at 28% 2nd weekend. Seem like Focus feature has given up on platform release. Going this wide over 1000 locations isn't really ideal for this kind of movie. You may have good word-of-mouth but build-up of awareness still take some time.

 

On the other hand, Marcel the Shell didn't really make a big bang after expanded to 590. Its PTA is kind of low to warrant a 2000+ theater expansion.   

[M37]

38 minutes ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

Yet, what really is relevant here is the big budget which

… was determined in pre-pandemic times with a likely higher expectation for revenue potential 

 

Or even: you’ve got a fantastic young director in Peele who has had two successful releases, so you give him additional directorial freedom, knowing the story and taking more chances may limit audience somewhat for this particular feature, but in the long run the studio is way ahead on the balance sheet 

 

I don’t think anyone holds up The Prestige’s $53M domestic gross (#61 in 2006) as some sort of Nolan failure 

[Noctis]

5 hours ago, vale9001 said:

According to a recent article by Variety Kaluyaa got 4M for the movie. Wow I'm really expecting a lot more, i hope he has some percentage on the box office.

 

I don't understand why an Oscar Winner, an actor in a blockbuster like Black Panther  and of a movie with 255M earning on a 4M budget is taking less than half of Timothee Chalamet for Wonka. Chalamet hasn't an Oscar, Dune is not Black Panther and the others 2 movies he made are indie movies with no box office lol 

 

Barely anyone remembers his role in BP. I watched the movie twice in theaters but I completely forgot he was in it until someone mentioned him.

[CaptNathanBrittles]

I'm assuming the budget of WONKA is $150m-200m, so as a percentage of the budget Kaluyaa is actually getting more. It's also probable that he has a significant gross/net point clause.

Edited July 25, 2022 by CaptNathanBrittles

[ringedmortality]

Chalamet is more of a star  than Kaluuya. Oscars don't really matter, and Chalamet was actually the lead in Dune not some small player like Kaluuya was in BP.

[vale9001]

11 minutes ago, Noctis said:

 

Barely anyone remembers his role in BP. I watched the movie twice in theaters but I completely forgot he was in it until someone mentioned him.

I watched one time and i barely remebers all the cast with the expection of the main character. Still he was in the movie e he has an Oscar and get out was a huge success. He deserves more for a movie like Nope and I'm sure his salary is not just that but he has other entries. 

 

Milly Bobby Brown is paid 10M at 18 cause she is in a tv series people can watch for "free". Please. 

[ringedmortality]

1 minute ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

I'm assuming the budget of WONKA is $150m-200m, so as a percentage of the budget Kaluyaa is actually getting more. It's also probable that he has a significant gross/net point clause.

 

That would be an insane budget for Wonka

[vale9001]

Just now, ringedmortality said:

Chalamet is more of a star  than Kaluuya. Oscars don't really matter, and Chalamet was actually the lead in Dune not some small player like Kaluuya was in BP.

Is more than a star why? Cause teens make more Noise one twitter? Lol he doesn't have bigger movies than kaluuya at the box office and Oscar are highly prestigious, espexially in the international market. 

The studios spend a lot of money for the campaigns for a reason. Writing in a trailer "with the Oscar winner..." gives credit to a movie. 

[Ronin46]

2 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

I watched one time and i barely remebers all the cast with the expection of the main character. Still he was in the movie e he has an Oscar and get out was a huge success. He deserves more for a movie like Nope and I'm sure his salary is not just that but he has other entries. 

 

Milly Bobby Brown is paid 10M at 18 cause she is in a tv series people can watch for "free". Please. 

 

Calling Strangers Things a tv show is a bit of an understatement. Its a phenomenon. Why do you feel the need to sling mud at her or TC? I imagine there would be a lot of factors in there contract such as box office gross and the like. I dont even remember him in BP. TC was front and centre of Dune and is a major star. 

[CaptNathanBrittles]

52 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

I don’t think anyone holds up The Prestige’s $53M domestic gross (#61 in 2006) as some sort of Nolan failu

 

It certainly wasn't a box office success, but it did very, very well on DVD and Blu-ray, probably earning more on home video at this point than at the box office.

 

The difference between THE PRESTIGE and NOPE, however, is that THE PRESTIGE was Christopher Nolan's "small" movie made for himself in between two big Batman movies for the studio. Whereas NOPE is Peele's first "big" movie for studios.

[CaptNathanBrittles]

8 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

That would be an insane budget for Wonka

 

Burton's horrid CHARLIE AND THE CHOCOLATE FACTORY cost $150m in 2005...

[vale9001]

5 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

Calling Strangers Things a tv show is a bit of an understatement. Its a phenomenon. Why do you feel the need to sling mud at her or TC? I imagine there would be a lot of factors in there contract such as box office gross and the like. I dont even remember him in BP. TC was front and centre of Dune and is a major star. 

 

Chalamet is a major star. Oscar winner Kaluyaa being in BP and on Get Out is not a star, 2 of the biggest phenomenons movie at the box office of the last years. The big screen where people buy tickets is a less than a star than Millie Bobby Brown and Chakamet cause they take retweets from teens. Ok. 😅

Edited July 25, 2022 by vale9001