NOPE Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates: Nope 44, Thor 22.1, Minions 17.71, Crawdads 10.3, TGM 10

[Valonqar]

32 minutes ago, The Panda said:

 

 

BP: WF could have a 250m OW and finish around BP's total, increases WW.

 

 

 

How? First movie made 542M w/o China which is 140M under Bohemian Rhapsody from the same year and almost 200M under Joker a year later. So while there's interest it wasn't as crazy as for those other movies. It made only 105M in China and had disastrous legs so even if it gets released there it won't set the boxoffice on fire cause they didn't care first time around. So to increase WW it would need an increase dom. Also, doubtful Russia and Ukraine situation clears by Novemeber so scratch those markets too.

Edited July 25, 2022 by Valonqar

[Firepower]

1 hour ago, The Panda said:

TGM, despite its amazing run, might only end up 3rd of the year DOM and WW.

 

BP: WF could have a 250m OW and finish around BP's total, increases WW.

 

Sad for Tom Cruise.

Keep dreaming, kid.

[Ryan Reynolds]

1 hour ago, The Panda said:

TGM, despite its amazing run, might only end up 3rd of the year DOM and WW.

 

BP: WF could have a 250m OW and finish around BP's total, increases WW.

 

Avatar 2 does 1b DOM and 3b+ WW.

 

Sad for Tom Cruise.

Disney always wins

[Borobudur]

Revised to $6.6m, up $300k from estimate. 

Movie Title	Gross	%LW	Theaters	Theaters Change	Total Gross	Weekends In Release
5	(5)	Elvis	$6,600,000	-18%	3,105	-200	$118,676,273	5

 

[Rebeccas]

2 hours ago, Valonqar said:

 

IW yes. A lot of fans thought that Fat Thor overstayed his welcome and were concenred with his turn into a straight up comedy character. Which continued in L&T. So Ragnarok was a blessing and a curse. On one hand, it invigorated the franchise, on the other hand, made the character more comedic than others outside of GOTG which needed to be handled with care. IW found the perfect balance, but Endgame and L&T did not. 

 

That said, this may be my personal peeve but I never found team-ups between characters with the same powers particularly exciting. The fun is in combining different powers or pitting them against each other. NWH gets away with 3 Spideys only cause they are from old and new movies to that's the attraction, never seen before. But Thor + Mighty Thor? Kazillion people who open the fucking portals? Kazillion widows doing gunkata? People shooting cosmic zapper shit from their hands? ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ. 

 

Point being, Ragnarok had a better team-up than L&T. Thor/Hulk>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Thor'n'Thor. There's a reason why Avengers have variety of powers and skills and thus is the biggest franchise in the world. 

I don’t think it’s that complicated, the movie just need to be decent and it unfortunately wasn’t. Thor in Ragnarok was also comedic but that film just did a better job of balancing humor and cool moments like everyone remembers the Immigrant Song finale, the Hulk fight, hell even the brief Dr Strange interlude was incredibly clever vs L&T didn’t have anything memorable in the latter category. 
 

If anything I think it shows how difficult it is to make Thor work in an Earth-centric story and maybe just the earth characters not being that interesting lol. Everyone’s given that a go and it just hasn’t really worked for anyone.. the consensus best Thor’s are ones where he spends 99% of his time in space interacting with other wacky space people like the Grandmaster or Guardians. Even in this one most people seem to think the Zeus bit was the best part. 

[efialtes76]

Elvis dropped 11% on Sunday.😂

[krla]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

I mentioned it before but I'm pretty sure filming with IMAX cameras must cost a pretty penny. I saw the movie in the format over the weekend and have to say it was definitely worth seeing that way.

Was the entire thing shot in IMAX? I think the lowest you'll spend for just a few weeks is a couple million. Shooting an entire movie in IMAX will typically run into the tens of millions. Depends a lot on how much film is used and developed, too. If Stanley Kubrick were alive to film in IMAX, he'd probably burn through $200 million, lol..

1 hour ago, The Panda said:

TGM, despite its amazing run, might only end up 3rd of the year DOM and WW.

 

BP: WF could have a 250m OW and finish around BP's total, increases WW.

 

Avatar 2 does 1b DOM and 3b+ WW.

 

Sad for Tom Cruise.

I could see Avatar being very hit or miss. 3D doesn't have the premium prices of 2009. There's not going to be the limit on 3D screens that keeps its legs long, and thus the continued press about it. It'll be much, much more frontloaded than the first, which means theaters will drop it when pta drops. In '09, they were recouping the investment in 3d, so had a reason to keep Avatar around. The higher ticket price boosted pta. Now Avatar will be competing for premium screens like everyone else. It's competing on a relatively level playing field compared to the first. So when pta declines, it loses theaters, screens, and showings.

 

Also won't have USD$50+ ticket prices in China. So while it may make more in China, due to more theaters being able to show it, and thus more tickets sold, the increase may not be what some are expecting. 

 

Hopefully the debate about the cultural impact of Avatar will be settled, though.

1 hour ago, LonePirate said:

That is a mystery which makes you wonder if the obvious reason is the actual reason.

The obvious reason being that Wonka is expected to make more than Nope? Or that Nope was filmed in a couple months, while Wonka was filmed over half a year? 

[superduperm]

16 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Elvis dropped 11% on Sunday.😂

Like to think that’s a good sign for other films…

[misterpepp]

4 hours ago, Valonqar said:

They have just made the disappointment legit with that defensive article. The moment you start to explain things you lost. 

 

Worst part is that Variety was hyping up the potential box office numbers going into the weekend, throwing out that "few would be surprised" if it went over $55m. Kinda funny for them to set up big expectations for Nope, and then criticize those who took their box office expectations to heart. Wacky.

Edited July 25, 2022 by datpepper

[filmlover]

35 minutes ago, krla said:

Was the entire thing shot in IMAX? I think the lowest you'll spend for just a few weeks is a couple million. Shooting an entire movie in IMAX will typically run into the tens of millions. Depends a lot on how much film is used and developed, too. If Stanley Kubrick were alive to film in IMAX, he'd probably burn through $200 million, lol..

About 1/3 of the movie was shot with IMAX.

[The Dark Alfred]

BP2 and Avatar 2 will have huge openings for sure, but films need to be great to have solid legs. That's not guaranteed. Especially Avatar 2, it looks a bit meh. WW it is a no contest for A2 to win the year, domestically it's Maverick baby, 700m is happening and don't expect BP2 and A2 to come very close to their predecessor even if they post gigantic OWs.

[The GOAT]

BP2 under a billion 

[The Panda]

Now that my hot take got y’all’s attention. Get your lists in, they’re due this week!

 

 

[Doffy]

8 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

BP2 and Avatar 2 will have huge openings for sure, but films need to be great to have solid legs. That's not guaranteed. Especially Avatar 2, it looks a bit meh. WW it is a no contest for A2 to win the year, domestically it's Maverick baby, 700m is happening and don't expect BP2 and A2 to come very close to their predecessor even if they post gigantic OWs.

I think avatar 2 will perform like nwh.

[Liiviig 1998]

14 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

BP2 and Avatar 2 will have huge openings for sure, but films need to be great to have solid legs. That's not guaranteed. Especially Avatar 2, it looks a bit meh. WW it is a no contest for A2 to win the year, domestically it's Maverick baby, 700m is happening and don't expect BP2 and A2 to come very close to their predecessor even if they post gigantic OWs.

Agree on BP2 but A2 I think has a good chance . Thinking 185-225/625-750m.

Edited July 25, 2022 by Liiviig 1998

[The Dark Alfred]

Just now, Liiviig 1998 said:

Agree on BP2 but A2 I think has a good chance . Thinking 185-225/650-725m.

 

Avatar has zero chance domestically if you look at the calendar year.

[Liiviig 1998]

8 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

BP2 under a billion 

Will depend on Dom . 

Could be anywhere from 950m-1.2bn

OS is had to gauge . Thought though thor would be an easy 450m but its not getting to that.

450-550m for BP2 I think.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

 

[CoolioD1]

4 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

 

 56% of 44mil is less than 40% of 71mil. is the brand growing or is he just losing casual viewers for his fans?

Edited July 25, 2022 by CoolioD1

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Just now, CoolioD1 said:

 56% of 44mil is less than 40% of 71mil. is the brand growing or is he just losing casual viewers?

 

70m for Us kinda throws this out of whack. That's just an insane benchmark with major crossover appeal that he couldn't maintain. Kinda like M. Night after Signs. Signs in 2002 opened to 60m and Village opened to 50m. But mostly everything else he's done is in the 30 range.  I'd assume Peele's next film stays in the 40 range