Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread

[MG10]

31 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Is some zalone film coming or what 

 

Nah it's just Avatar that brought us out of a lethargic and dying box office...

[Sophia Jane]

Avatar drop only 50.1% from Sunday in HONGKONG on Monday and gross only bit lower than OD,looks like something is already start

[JustLurking]

55 minutes ago, MG10 said:

 

Damn another Italian users, in the last couple of days we basically doubled 😅

I actually have been here a while, not very active on this thread though but like - Italy BO has been pretty boring for a while to be honest. CBM tracking doesn't really excite me unless phenomenom film either. TGM been pretty fun but it didn't really do exceptional here or anything. A2 has been a run I was looking forward to for sure.

 

46 minutes ago, adaros said:

If Beauty and the Beast released now post covid and with shit exchange rates vs dollar it would be interesting. But there is next year The Little Mermaid we will see how that one performs to have better understanding how Disney live actions do 

I actually think TLM will be a poor benchmark to evaluate Disney LA. Black-led films tend to struggle OS and I think this one will take the hit as well on that front.

[Sophia Jane]

Avatar Open 174k admits in Portugal,9th best opening of all-time,best opening of the year

Portugal is a leggy market even MINIONS 2 have 8x leg,TGM 10x,so AVATAR have a chance to crush all time record here

Edited December 19, 2022 by Bruce

[MG10]

2 hours ago, Borobudur said:

Avatar is officially the biggest franchise in Euro, replacing the like of SW, and Middle-Earth. 

 

I would wait for the third film of the franchise before making it official, and apart from Star Wars, The Lord of the Rings and The Hobbit you absolutely mustn't forget Harry Potter and James Bond (Link to the dedicated topic, made by me)

 

In any case it's certainly more varied than USA&Canada which have a top 20/25 composed almost exclusively by Star Wars, MCU and Disney films (Link BoxOfficeMojo)

Edited December 19, 2022 by MG10

[Sophia Jane]

10 minutes ago, MG10 said:

 

I would wait for the third film of the franchise before making it official, and apart from Star Wars, The Lord of the Rings and The Hobbit you absolutely mustn't forget Harry Potter and James Bond (Link to the dedicated topic, made by me)

 

In any case it's certainly more varied than USA&Canada which have a top 20/25 composed almost exclusively by Star Wars, MCU and Disney films (Link BoxOfficeMojo)

I personally think is too early to judge how popular Avatar as an IP,RIght now this IP only have 2 movies without any video games,tv shows,novel,comic,toys....etc,it's need time to grow like that

Edited December 19, 2022 by Bruce

[LPLC]

Here are my updated projections :

 

 

DOM : $550-$750M ==> $550M-$600M 🟠

 

 

United Kingdom : $100M-$125M ==> $75M-$90M 🔴

France : $75M-$110M ==> $80M-$115M 🟢

Germany : $70M-$105M ==> $85M-$120M 🟢

Spain : $35M-$45M 🟠

Italy : $35M-$45M 🟠

 

Total EMEA : $550M +

 

 

Mexico : $60M-$85M ==> $55M-$65M 🟠

Brazil : $45M-$65M ==> $35M-$45M 🟠

 

Total Latin America : $150M-$190M

 

 

Japan : $60M-$100M ==> $30M-$45M 🔴

South Korea : $60M-$95M ==> $75M-$100M 🟢

Australia : $55M-$75M ==> $40M-$50M 🔴

India : $55M-$70M ==> $45M-$55M 🟠

New Zealand : $6M-$8M ==> $8M-$11M 🟢

 

Total APAC : $300M-$380M

 

 

China : $650M-$800M ==> $125M-$150M 🔴

 

 

Rest : $25M-$30M

 

 

OS-Russia-Ukraine : $1,738B-$2,331B ==> $1,150B-$1,3B

 

 

Total : $2288M-$3031M  ==> $1,7B-$1,9B

 

 

According to my predictions, the total box office of A:WoW would therefore be between JW ($1,671B) and NWH ($1,916B)

 

 

🔴 = Market where I lowered my predictions

🟠 = Market where I kept (or almost) my predictions

🟢 = Market where I increased my predictions

 

Great for France, Germany and South Korea 

Disappointing for UK, China and Japan

Edited December 20, 2022 by LPLC

[adaros]

3 minutes ago, LPLC said:

Here are my updated projections :

 

 

DOM : $550-$750M ==> $550M-$600M 🔴

 

 

United Kingdom : $100M-$125M ==> $75M-$90M 🔴

France : $75M-$110M ==> $80M-$115M 🟢

Germany : $70M-$105M ==> $85M-$120M 🟢

Spain : $35M-$45M 🟠

Italy : $35M-$45M 🟠

 

Total EMEA : $550M +

 

 

Mexico : $60M-$85M ==> $55M-$65M 🔴

Brazil : $45M-$65M ==> $35M-$45M 🔴

 

Total Latin America : $150M-$190M

 

 

Japan : $60M-$100M ==> $30M-$45M 🔴

South Korea : $60M-$95M ==> $75M-$100M 🟢

Australia : $55M-$75M ==> $40M-$50M 🔴

India : $55M-$70M ==> $50M-$55M 🔴

New Zealand : $6M-$8M ==> $8M-$11M 🟢

 

Total APAC : $300M-$380M

 

 

China : $650M-$800M ==> $125M-$150M 🔴

 

 

Rest : $25M-$30M

 

 

OS-Russia-Ukraine : $1,738B-$2,331B ==> $1,150B-$1,3B

 

 

Total : $2288M-$3031M  ==> $1,7B-$1,9B

 

 

According to my predictions, the total box office of A:WoW would therefore be between JW ($1,671B) and NWH ($1,916B)

 

 

🔴 = Market where I lowered my predictions

🟠 = Market where I kept (or almost) my predictions

🟢 = Market where I increased my predictions

 

Great for France, Germany and South Korea 

Disappointing for DOM, UK, Japan, Australia and Japan

I think Japan can go 10m lower but overall reasonable predictions.

[Nero]

3 hours ago, LPLC said:

Here are my updated projections :

 

 

DOM : $550-$750M ==> $550M-$600M 

🟠

 

 

United Kingdom : $100M-$125M ==> $75M-$90M 🔴

France : $75M-$110M ==> $80M-$115M 🟢

Germany : $70M-$105M ==> $85M-$120M 🟢

Spain : $35M-$45M 🟠

Italy : $35M-$45M 🟠

 

Total EMEA : $550M +

 

 

Mexico : $60M-$85M ==> $55M-$65M 

🟠

Brazil : $45M-$65M ==> $35M-$45M 

🟠

 

Total Latin America : $150M-$190M

 

 

Japan : $60M-$100M ==> $30M-$45M 🔴

South Korea : $60M-$95M ==> $75M-$100M 🟢

Australia : $55M-$75M ==> $40M-$50M 🔴

India : $55M-$70M ==> $50M-$55M 

🟠

New Zealand : $6M-$8M ==> $8M-$11M 🟢

 

Total APAC : $300M-$380M

 

 

China : $650M-$800M ==> $125M-$150M 🔴

 

 

Rest : $25M-$30M

 

 

OS-Russia-Ukraine : $1,738B-$2,331B ==> $1,150B-$1,3B

 

 

Total : $2288M-$3031M  ==> $1,7B-$1,9B

 

 

According to my predictions, the total box office of A:WoW would therefore be between JW ($1,671B) and NWH ($1,916B)

 

 

🔴 = Market where I lowered my predictions

🟠 = Market where I kept (or almost) my predictions

🟢 = Market where I increased my predictions

 

Great for France, Germany and South Korea 

Disappointing for UK, China and Japan

Good predictions. Similar to where I have it.

[Mau]

4 hours ago, LPLC said:

Here are my updated projections :

 

 

DOM : $550-$750M ==> $550M-$600M 

🟠

 

 

United Kingdom : $100M-$125M ==> $75M-$90M 🔴

France : $75M-$110M ==> $80M-$115M 🟢

Germany : $70M-$105M ==> $85M-$120M 🟢

Spain : $35M-$45M 🟠

Italy : $35M-$45M 🟠

 

Total EMEA : $550M +

 

 

Mexico : $60M-$85M ==> $55M-$65M 

🟠

Brazil : $45M-$65M ==> $35M-$45M 

🟠

 

Total Latin America : $150M-$190M

 

 

Japan : $60M-$100M ==> $30M-$45M 🔴

South Korea : $60M-$95M ==> $75M-$100M 🟢

Australia : $55M-$75M ==> $40M-$50M 🔴

India : $55M-$70M ==> $50M-$55M 

🟠

New Zealand : $6M-$8M ==> $8M-$11M 🟢

 

Total APAC : $300M-$380M

 

 

China : $650M-$800M ==> $125M-$150M 🔴

 

 

Rest : $25M-$30M

 

 

OS-Russia-Ukraine : $1,738B-$2,331B ==> $1,150B-$1,3B

 

 

Total : $2288M-$3031M  ==> $1,7B-$1,9B

 

 

According to my predictions, the total box office of A:WoW would therefore be between JW ($1,671B) and NWH ($1,916B)

 

 

🔴 = Market where I lowered my predictions

🟠 = Market where I kept (or almost) my predictions

🟢 = Market where I increased my predictions

 

Great for France, Germany and South Korea 

Disappointing for UK, China and Japan

You really expected Mexico having a performamce like No Way Home or Endgame? With 80M+?

[Shanks]

1 hour ago, Mau said:

You really expected Mexico having a performamce like No Way Home or Endgame? With 80M+?

 

You can't blame him - there is thread here with 1000 + pages whose Optimism had rubbed in almost all people. Most accepted JC's films are leggy but somehow in past 6 months, I had seen people change their predictions - and wished/hoped it will perform and open like NWH and then run like 1st Avatar.

 

So, Blame that THREAD.

[JustLurking]

I think LATAM is playing pretty reasonably for this one actually. Disappointments are definitely elsewhere.

[charlie Jatinder]

everywhere is disappointing to varying degree except Germany and to an extent France. some small European markets also fine.

[charlie Jatinder]

Weekend IMO is $314M ish. Usual for Disney to report under my estimate, in current case $307M.

[stephanos13]

25 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Weekend IMO is $314M ish. Usual for Disney to report under my estimate, in current case $307M.

 

When they under report. They add the gross later or they just leave it just like they announced it?

[simoimo19]

 

[Elessar]

Why the 7m discrepancy? When will Disney incorporate those 7m?

[MG10]

12 hours ago, LPLC said:

Here are my updated projections :

 

 

DOM : $550-$750M ==> $550M-$600M 

🟠

 

 

United Kingdom : $100M-$125M ==> $75M-$90M 🔴

France : $75M-$110M ==> $80M-$115M 🟢

Germany : $70M-$105M ==> $85M-$120M 🟢

Spain : $35M-$45M 🟠

Italy : $35M-$45M 🟠

 

Total EMEA : $550M +

 

 

Mexico : $60M-$85M ==> $55M-$65M 

🟠

Brazil : $45M-$65M ==> $35M-$45M 

🟠

 

Total Latin America : $150M-$190M

 

 

Japan : $60M-$100M ==> $30M-$45M 🔴

South Korea : $60M-$95M ==> $75M-$100M 🟢

Australia : $55M-$75M ==> $40M-$50M 🔴

India : $55M-$70M ==> $50M-$55M 

🟠

New Zealand : $6M-$8M ==> $8M-$11M 🟢

 

Total APAC : $300M-$380M

 

 

China : $650M-$800M ==> $125M-$150M 🔴

 

 

Rest : $25M-$30M

 

 

OS-Russia-Ukraine : $1,738B-$2,331B ==> $1,150B-$1,3B

 

 

Total : $2288M-$3031M  ==> $1,7B-$1,9B

 

 

According to my predictions, the total box office of A:WoW would therefore be between JW ($1,671B) and NWH ($1,916B)

 

 

🔴 = Market where I lowered my predictions

🟠 = Market where I kept (or almost) my predictions

🟢 = Market where I increased my predictions

 

Great for France, Germany and South Korea 

Disappointing for UK, China and Japan

 

In the English speaking countries it's doing quite bad, it will do less than expected in Usa/Canada, UK and Australia which together were 35/40% of the total box office of the first... 

[Lion Roar]

1 hour ago, MG10 said:

 

In the English speaking countries it's doing quite bad, it will do less than expected in Usa/Canada, UK and Australia which together were 35/40% of the total box office of the first... 

My theory is that the bad script is much less noticeable in dubbed/subbed versions.

Edited December 20, 2022 by Lion Roar

[AJG]

2 minutes ago, Lion Roar said:

My theory is that the bad script is much less noticeable in dubbed/subbed versions.

 

Nah, Bro. That's not it all Cuz.