Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread

[Sophia Jane]

I’m afraid of this thread turning to the politic discussion thread and start the real serious internet battle,so can we just stop this before the war getting start?

Edited February 3, 2023 by Sophia Jane

[JustLurking]

16 hours ago, Mr Roark said:

Weaker than what? A 190 mins anti war pro nature - zero nostalgic and with no superheroes - epic “with no plot” doing this numbers in a country like the US (without also  the 3D wow factor of 2009) is phenomenal.

 

 

Weaker than how the film performed in the rest of the world even compared to the first film. Simple as that.

 

What you wrote is (part or) an explanation for why it relatively underperformed DOM, not a reason for why it didn't.

[MG10]

12 hours ago, Alexdube said:

Americans have pride in their military, other countries do not (whether they are allies or not). If you want to talk about other countries such as Japan or the UK, other factors are at play there and that's not what I'm here to talk about.

 

But it shouldn't take a genius to understand why an old fashioned pro-military/American movie featuring Tom Cruise might do better domestically relative to the rest of the world than a movie with an anti-imperialist message depicting the bad guys mainly as Americans

 

Well yeah now that what's done is done obviously it makes sense, but just a year ago the forecasts for the US were 300M max for Maverick and 500M as the absolute minimum for Avatar (more or less, but I gave the idea)

 

And there are dozens of countries where pride in their armies is high, the problem more than anything else is that most of them aren't exactly paradises so they should probably focus on something else (Pakistan, Russia, Egypt, Turkey, Algeria, India, Israel and from what I've heard also Philippines, Thailand and many others)

Edited February 3, 2023 by MG10

[Alexdube]

1 hour ago, MG10 said:

 

Well yeah now that what's done is done obviously it makes sense, but just a year ago the forecasts for the US were 300M max for Maverick and 500M as the absolute minimum for Avatar (more or less, but I gave the idea)

 

And there are dozens of countries where pride in their armies is high, the problem more than anything else is that most of them aren't exactly paradises so they should probably focus on something else (Pakistan, Russia, Egypt, Turkey, Algeria, India, Israel and from what I've heard also Philippines, Thailand and many others)

The forecasts for each movie are kind of irrelevant, it's the DOM/OS distribution that is in question. And just looking at the content in each movie, I don't think it's that mysterious as to why one might perform stronger in the US relative to OS numbers.  

[Mr Roark]

3 hours ago, JustLurking said:

Weaker than how the film performed in the rest of the world even compared to the first film. Simple as that.

 

What you wrote is (part or) an explanation for why it relatively underperformed DOM, not a reason for why it didn't.

“Relatively underperformed” is a step in the right direction compared to the previous “absolute underperformer”.

 

I’ve never been on the $700M+ dom train but given its OS numbers it would have made sense to expect that.

[JustLurking]

4 minutes ago, Mr Roark said:

“Relatively underperformed” is a step in the right direction compared to the previous “absolute underperformer”.

 

I’ve never been on the $700M+ dom train but given its OS numbers it would have made sense to expect that.

Except I have literally used "relative" in every one of my posts and even singled it out in caps for you in the post you quoted, not once did I say it had underperformed on absolute terms, and I even spelled it out explicitly.

 

Like, come on man.

Edited February 3, 2023 by JustLurking

[Mr Roark]

The fact is that A2 didn’t underperformed DOM, it overperformed OS.

 

Let’s not pretend predictions before release and after the OW never happened. 

[Sophia Jane]

Avatar cross 200m RSD in Serbia,3rd highest grossing film of All-time and Highest grossing HLW film of All-time 
Highest grosser in Serbia(RSD)
1 Toma 299m
2 South Wind 205m
3 Avatar:The way of water 200m
4 See You in Montevideo 180m
5 South Wind II 175m

Edited February 4, 2023 by Sophia Jane

[LPLC]

I just realized if A2 make $700M + and Titanic make $42M + with re-release, JC will have 3 movies with $700M + in US/CA. I think we will never see that again

[Elessar]

5 minutes ago, LPLC said:

I just realized if A2 make $700M + and Titanic make $42M + with re-release, JC will have 3 movies with $700M + in US/CA. I think we will never see that again

 

Unfortunately, both won't happen.

[LPLC]

If we take the last update from Charlie's predictions, we have : 

 

$1420M INT - China

$245M in China as of today so maybe $5M more and $250M final run 

$690M-$720M in DOM

 

= $1670M INT + $690M-$720M DOM

 

= $2360M - $2390M final run 

 

So let's say $2,35B-$2,4B final run and I think $2,4B + is unlikely now but still possible maybe ?

 

If we compare with others asian markets, China without COVID would have make $300M more and maybe $100M more with Russia, Ukraine and others markets hurts by COVID. So in normal conditions, maybe $2,75B-$2,8B final ? Very similar to AEG and Avatar 1st run

[LPLC]

4 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

Unfortunately, both won't happen.

Why not ? $700M is very possible for A2 and for Titanic I think more something like $25M re-release but $40M seems possible 

[Elessar]

21 minutes ago, LPLC said:

Why not ? $700M is very possible for A2 and for Titanic I think more something like $25M re-release but $40M seems possible 

 

Because it'll be at like 637m after a 11m weekend. Doing another 63m is very unlikely. The only way i can maybe see it reaching 700m is with a late re-expansion or re-release.

 

As for Titanic, the rather wide 3D re-release in 2012 did 58m, i may be wrong but this latest re-release seems like a much smaller affair, much more limited.

Edited February 4, 2023 by Elessar

[CaptNathanBrittles]

30 minutes ago, LPLC said:

I just realized if A2 make $700M + and Titanic make $42M + with re-release, JC will have 3 movies with $700M + in US/CA. I think we will never see that again

 

Adj. for inflation Spielbergo has 4.

[LPLC]

27 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

Because it'll be at like 637m after a 11m weekend. Doing another 63m is very unlikely. The only way i can maybe see it reaching 700m is with a late re-expansion or re-release.

 

As for Titanic, the rather wide 3D re-release in 2012 did 58m, i may be wrong but this latest re-release seems like a much smaller affair, much more limited.

Yes for Titanic chances are weaker but $40M seems not impossible

For A2, it seems possible because for example NWH make $56M more after a $9,5M 8th weekend, A2 will make $11M this 8th weekend and will have (already have) better late legs than NWH, so $63M seems likely

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, LPLC said:

Yes for Titanic chances are weaker but $40M seems not impossible

For A2, it seems possible because for example NWH make $56M more after a $9,5M 8th weekend, A2 will make $11M this 8th weekend and will have (already have) better late legs than NWH, so $63M seems likely

 

NWH dropped 14% in its 8th weekend vs 30-35% for A2. NWH also didn't have a $120M+ opener coming until it's 12th WE vs 10th for A2. 

I'm thinking it gets to $675-685M but falls short of $700M (for now at least). 

[LPLC]

1 minute ago, XXR You Ok Annie said:

 

NWH dropped 14% in its 8th weekend vs 30-35% for A2. NWH also didn't have a $120M+ opener coming until it's 12th WE vs 10th for A2. 

I'm thinking it gets to $675-685M but falls short of $700M (for now at least). 

Yes but despite bigger drop A2 will have a better 8th weekend so idk it's true that AM3 will hurt but $700M seems possible, I think it's 50/50

[CaptNathanBrittles]

Re-release A2 at Christmas with an exclusive A3 trailer attached and that's an easy $15m extra.

[Sophia Jane]

All time Admission ranking in Lithuania
1 Avatar:The Way of Water 310k
2 Pradžia 293k
3 Už Lietuvą! 292k
4 Titanic 279k

5 Minions:Rise of Gru 248k
6 Tarp pilkų debesų 240k
7 Minions 239k
8 Trys milijonai eurų 235k
9 Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs 233k
10 Ice Age: Continental Drift 227k
11 Avatar 226k

Edited February 4, 2023 by Sophia Jane

[Sophia Jane]

Zeiten
Nr.	Sloty	Film
	105.261.308	Kler
	105.089.063	Ogniem i Mieczem
3	93.660.568	Avatar
	82.839.843	Pan Tadeusz
5	73.250.000	Avatar 2
	69.045.592	Quo Vadis
	65.204.800	Listy do M. 3
8	62.767.218	Star Wars VII
	58.522.569	Pitbull 2
10	55.566.330	Minions 2

 

Poland all-time box office

Edited February 5, 2023 by Sophia Jane