Weekend Thread (8/12-14) | Estimates: Train 13.4, Pets 7.17, TGM 7.15, Thor 5.31, Nope 5.3 | Bodies 3.25, Fall 2.5, Laal Singh 1.8, Mack 1.09, E.T. 1.07

[Eric Duncan]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

E.T. 0.5

That Steven Spielberg will never have a job in this town again

[grim22]

6 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

BT 3.9
Super Pets 1.9
TGM 1.9
Nope 1.6
Thor 1.4

Minions 1.4

Bodies 1.3
Crawdads 1.2
Elvis 0.7
Fall 0.7

E.T. 0.5
Laal Singh 0.43
Mack 0.3

This is definitely a weekend where there are movies in theaters.

[p a p i]

2 hours ago, M37 said:

I mean, January was essentially an empty month besides Scream, with the next highest OWs being The 355 ($4.6M) and Redeeming Love ($3.5M), with the 1/21 and 1/28 weekends netting $42M and $31M in total respectively

 

We’re not quite to that level here (but may be end of August into September)

 

 

The 1st weekend of September is really bad. 

[Poseidon]

Will we ever get back to a full schedule or will this be the future of cinema? 

[Legion Again]

2 hours ago, M37 said:

Not that the results will be significantly better, but expecting these Deadline weekend estimates to wind up too low. IMO, they’re not adjusting enough for schools starting up, producing a lower Friday followed by a larger Sat increase. I’ve got BT around $13.5M (+50% Sat) Bodies at $3.2M (-10-15% from full Fri) from their Friday estimates. And those could even be too low 

Last Aug was  still a little wonky in various respects, but:

Sat Aug 7/Sat Aug 14

Old +40/42

BW +42/47

Snake eyes +52/65

ER2 +29/34

F9 +61/62

BB2 +56/52

Avg +46.7/50.3  

 

150.3/146.7 ~= 2.5% higher Sats  

 

Going back to same calendar pre-pandemic:

Aug 6 2016/Aug 13 2016

SLOP  +43/47

STB +62/61

Lights Out +22/36

Ghostbusters +48/52

Ice Age +45/51

Dory +56/49

Tarzan +46/45

avg +46/48.7

 

~2% higher sats

 

 

[filmlover]

10 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

That’s the thing though, will it even expand next weekend? 
 

Can’t wait to see the film. 

A $2,700 PTA is solid for the type of movie it is and it's unlikely to be dropped for a while with how quiet it's looking to be on the new release front for the next month (Dragon Ball, Beast, and The Invitation are perhaps the only movies with double digits opening potential), so I wouldn't rule out solid legs by default like everything else seems destined to enjoy over these next several weeks.

[M37]

7 minutes ago, Eric the Extra-Terrestrial said:

Could have sworn that there was an article that mentioned the movie would go to 1,200 locations, then to 2,000+

Yes, there are already locations not opening this week that have tickets on sale for 8/19, but many in same markets where it’s already playing, so will crash the PTA. I doubt it will increase next week like EEAAO did with similar expansion pattern 

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, grim22 said:

This is definitely a weekend where there are movies in theaters.

[Tokugennumataka]

+106% from Thurs. Lessgoo

Edited August 13, 2022 by Tokugennumataka

[Legion Again]

TGM pulled an increase for fri, wonder if it can increase weekend as well or the plfs make it slightly more frontloaded.

[M37]

1 minute ago, Legion By Night said:

Last Aug was  still a little wonky in various respects, but:

Sat Aug 7/Sat Aug 14

Old +40/42

BW +42/47

Snake eyes +52/65

ER2 +29/34

F9 +61/62

BB2 +56/52

Avg +46.7/50.3  

 

150.3/146.7 ~= 2.5% higher Sats  

 

Going back to same calendar pre-pandemic:

Aug 6 2016/Aug 13 2016

SLOP  +43/47

STB +62/61

Lights Out +22/36

Ghostbusters +48/52

Ice Age +45/51

Dory +56/49

Tarzan +46/45

avg +46/48.7

 

~2% higher sats

 

 

Last August calendar may not be an apples to apples comparison, because I get the sense (from reading dailies tea leaves) that there were more school openings this week than same week last year. Don’t think it will be quite as dramatic as the shift from Sat 8/14 to 8/21/01, but something in between

 

Or I could be totally off base, and this will be a very weak weekend for holdovers even with less than $8M in new releases

[John Marston]

is this song in Bodies Bodies Bodies?

 

 

[SchumacherFTW]

4 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

I believe Dragon Ball Super will save North American Cinema from crashing next weekend.

 

Doubtful

[M37]

44 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

BT 3.9
Super Pets 1.9
TGM 1.9
Nope 1.6
Thor 1.4

Minions 1.4

Bodies 1.3
Crawdads 1.2
Elvis 0.7
Fall 0.7

E.T. 0.5
Laal Singh 0.43
Mack 0.3

That's poor for Super Pets (-43.5% fri/fri), can't seem to find footing, though potentially has much better Sat/Sun and climbs into high 30% drop range for weekend (took kids to see it, entirely formulaic and skews to young kids, not entirely surprised WOM is meh)

 

Obviously really good for TGM; do think it will be a tad more Fri heavy with PLF rerelesae, but on track for a single digit drop for the weekend, finishing at least 3rd and probably 2nd in its 11th weekend

 

Elvis seems to be trailing off a bit, though always seems to be a 2nd or 3rd choice for adults, so BT last weekend and now maybe TGM PLF this weekend took away some potential audience

 

The rest of the holdovers are ... fine, in line with what should have been expected given trajectory

[Issac Newton]

12 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

$50M OW incoming!

[CaptNathanBrittles]

TOP GUN: MAVERICK HIGHWAY TO $700M DAY 78

 

BLACK PANTHER: $22.3m ahead

TOP GUN 2 GAIN: +$1.0m

 

CURRENT SEA LEVEL: $675.7m

LOCK ON BOGEY: $687.78m

AVERAGE (LAST 51 DAYS): $685.92m (+0.007% YD)

[CaptNathanBrittles]

1 hour ago, VanillaSkies said:

I wouldn’t be so sure. 
There is NOTHING coming up in competition until like October. 
it also lost IMAX shows to ET and TGM this weekend, so it was always expected to drop pretty hefty. It can stabilize from here and have late legs like many, many films this year have. 

 

JOHN WICK 2 had a much better second weekend drop, didn't drop above 50% until its 6th weekend and it stalled at $92m.

[charlie Jatinder]

BT I think $13-13.3M weekend. Final probably around $90-95M but can see hit $100M with dead competition.

[M37]

16 minutes ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

 

JOHN WICK 2 had a much better second weekend drop, didn't drop above 50% until its 6th weekend and it stalled at $92m.

Not a great direct comparison. JW2 debuted in Feb 5 years ago, so previews accounted for only 7.2% of OW, vs 15.3% for BT (as those shows & grosses don’t repeat for week 2), and also had aid of holiday weekend for second frame 

 

If we see a +40% Sat increase for BT, that would be roughly -45% from opening Sat, vs -41.6% for JW2. A little worse, but not by much, and in line with how just about everything is holding in week 2 this year, except for extra leggy movies like TGM & Elvis 

 

 

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Last August calendar may not be an apples to apples comparison, because I get the sense (from reading dailies tea leaves) that there were more school openings this week than same week last year. Don’t think it will be quite as dramatic as the shift from Sat 8/14 to 8/21/01, but something in between

 

Or I could be totally off base, and this will be a very weak weekend for holdovers even with less than $8M in new releases

8/14/21:8/21/21 —

JC +53/58

old 42/49

Stillwater 49/49

BW 47/56

TGK 33/22

er2 34/45

snake eyes 65/60

avg 46.1/48.4

 

1.5% stronger 

 

 

That’s not nothing the difference in sats is really pretty gradual until the final wknd of aug (or maybe penultimate on some calendars).  
 

I could actually use some strong sats for pets and Easter though, so let’s see how it all  shakes out 😂