Weekend Thread (8/26-28) | Invitation 775K Previews

[Eric Duncan]

 

[filmlover]

Single digits #1 it is then.

[Flopped]

It's hard to gauge if these preview numbers are good or bad. They start so early now. 

[M37]

That’s not a great number for Invitation, but on this same weekend last year R-rated known IP Candyman had a $1.9/$22M = 11.5x. And this year a higher share of locations are running reduced weekday hours, which limits potential for Thursday, especially for a PG-13 horror film missing those late shows 

 

tl;dr - wouldn’t count out keeping that $10M+ at #1 streak running for a least one more week 

[Krissykins]

For a film that was only announced with a release date 8 weeks ago and has a $10m production budget, I’m taking this as a win. 

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

For a film that was only announced with a release date 8 weeks ago and has a $10m production budget, I’m taking this as a win. 

In fairness, it was always set for this date. It just underwent a title change (it was originally called The Bride) right before marketing began.

[Eric Duncan]

Early RT Aud. Scores:

 

The Invitation: 55%

Three Thousand Years: 92%

Breaking: 80%

 

Note all have fewer than 50 Verified ratings, so they can all change like a dime later on.

[M37]

Looks like UA/3K Years may not report a Thursday number. Given tracking was pointing towards it being in $300K range, I’m not entirely surprised 

[Eric Duncan]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

Looks like UA/3K Years may not report a Thursday number. Given tracking was pointing towards it being in $300K range, I’m not entirely surprised 

I tracked this stupid movie for nothing...🙄

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

Looks like UA/3K Years may not report a Thursday number. Given tracking was pointing towards it being in $300K range, I’m not entirely surprised 

The 7:00 show at one of the busiest locations near me has sold only 20 seats so far so I wouldn't be surprised by sub-$3M for the weekend. I'd say poor Miller, but he's busy with Furiosa right now anyway.

[AJG]

5 minutes ago, Eric the Genie said:

Early RT Aud. Scores:

 

The Invitation: 55%

Three Thousand Years: 92%

Breaking: 80%

 

Note all have fewer than 50 Verified ratings, so they can all change like a dime later on.

 

3000 Years getting that high a VA score seems like some kind of miracle.

 

It might do numbers once it hits Prime Video.

[M37]

19 minutes ago, Eric the Genie said:

I tracked this stupid movie for nothing...🙄

In all sincerity, tracking these lower level releases, even if they don’t officially report Thursday and we have to rely on a ballpark range, still provides value, in terms of IMs/daily patterns and future comps. While they should be multiples higher, it’s a decent baseline/starting point for Woman King and Darling

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

Saw the Invitation at a preview last night here in the UK.

 

It is VERY similar to Ready or Not in many ways, albeit slightly more straight-faced. Ticks every gothic box in the ledger and while not necessarily the most original narrative in the world (though film-wise is far more female gazey than most films like this...there's lots like it in literature though) it a lot of basic, clean fun.

 

Very good date film.

 

Might have a chance of word-of-mouthing its way around female audiences. But regardless at the budget it has, that it gets to be a/the featured film for a weekend is rather serendipitous for it. 

[CJohn]

Hoping that The Invitation pulls a miracle and does 10M+ this weekend.

[Krissykins]

10 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Hoping that The Invitation pulls a miracle and does 10M+ this weekend.

It would have to be a real miracle, because the highest preview to OW multiplier a horror had last year was Candyman’s 11.57x. 

 

The Invitation would need 13x +

[Old Spice]

I liked Three Thousand a lot. Gets kind of meandery in the third act, but there's a strange beauty to it that overcomes a lot of the narrative deficiencies. Unfortunately, I comprised 1/3 of the audience at the first screening, so I doubt it's long for theaters.

[M37]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

It would have to be a real miracle, because the highest preview to OW multiplier a horror had last year was Candyman’s 11.57x. 

 

The Invitation would need 13x +

While accurate, the horror slate over the last 16 months has been a slew of sub-$5M forgettable titles, big & known IPs - Candyman, Quiet Place, Halloween, Scream - and summer releases like Black Phone and Old. And of those large enough to report a Thursday, all but Old (which did have an 11.2x in July) were rated R, while Invitation is PG-13, the first such offering in quite a long time. 
 

From that data set, I wouldn’t view a $10M+ weekend from a$775K Thursday as a miracle so much as just not having a truly applicable recent comp in hand to suggest otherwise (But I seem to be mostly on an island in that line of thinking …)

 

 

 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

FTR, my expectation was 11x for Invitation and 9.5x for TTYOL.

Edited August 27, 2022 by Stealing Porthos Name XXR

[Eric Duncan]

9 hours ago, AJG said:

 

3000 Years getting that high a VA score seems like some kind of miracle.

 

It might do numbers once it hits Prime Video.

Score's now dropped to 69%. Real "and I oop" shit.

 

Invitation is also now at 58% and Breaking is at 69%. This weekend's gonna be rough my dudes

[Godzilla]

Any friday numbers for holdovers?