Weekend Thread (8/26-28) | Invitation 775K Previews

[ringedmortality]

We just have to wait until Bros becomes a smash hit

[Valonqar]

People changed habits too. They are now more selective what to catch in theaters and what to wait for on streaming. Might revert to old habit later but right now it seems to be the case. Not to mention that some streaming movies turned into bigger deal than theatrical releases. Prey, for example, was big and got people talk about it more than whatever was released around that time. Also, streaming shows. Stranger Things, House of the Dragon were/are massive, LOTR:ROP will most likely keep a lot of people at home as well. 

[M37]

1 hour ago, AJG said:

 

I've been saying this since the pandemic started. The guy cannot admit the BO just hasn't properly recovered yet. It's September and we've only had one billion dollar grosser so far.

He’s mostly right that you can no longer point to pandemic as to why audiences aren’t there (demand side), but then completely ignores the COVID-related production delays that significantly limited the release calendar (supply side) and left so little/weak product for August through mid-October, with even the rest of year with like half of the normal slate 

 

 

[Legion Again]

On 7/23/2022 at 7:40 AM, Legion By Night said:

Dragon ball could be the 2nd highest grossing august release, right? I mean it’s no demon slayer but being flat from Broly admits could be good enough.

Had this one dialed in way out. 

[Mojoguy]

Still no Breaking film Friday estimates?

 

Has this ever happened before with a studio refusing to give out Friday numbers? Massive FLOP incoming?!

Edited August 28, 2022 by Mojoguy

[Eric the Ape]

This weekend's dull as dishwater and there's nothing to talk about. If you want to talk about something, I made a data analysis on a website you likely never heard of that tracks awareness and interest metrics for movies.

 

 

[Old Spice]

Bravo, Eric! 👏 Fantastic work. Saving this for future reference. 

[Old Spice]

I'm surprised the awareness for both Don't Worry and Bros is so low this close to their release dates. I feel like I've gotten those trailers with almost every movie I've seen recently.

[Gokira2012]

6 hours ago, CJohn said:

Besides the fact that Bullet Train is gonna die at 90M or so, Nope is another massive underperformer. The OS numbers are atrocious. 

Black movies have a hard time overseas

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

12 hours ago, CJohn said:

Besides the fact that Bullet Train is gonna die at 90M or so, Nope is another massive underperformer. The OS numbers are atrocious. 

 

Feels like the OS numbers on Nope are a rather overlooked story.

 

Basically playing like an arthouse movie.

 

Currently number of 20.1m, and seems like it's not going to have much more.

 

That's lower worldwide totals than Hereditary, Ready or Not, Happy Death Days 1 and 2, Northman, Midsommar, BOTH Escape Rooms, Pet Sematary....modestly released and budgeted films that Nope doubles, trebles and even quadruples in both domestic gross and budget.

Edited August 28, 2022 by Ipickthiswhiterose

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

6 hours ago, Gokira2012 said:

Black movies have a hard time overseas

 

Get Out: 79m

Us: 80

Nope: 20m

 

Sure, relative to US dom, black-lead movies have a tough time internationally. Not sure that's enough to cover this case though given Peele's previous record.

 

Also note that Escape Room, another horror film with Black lead, was breakout international hit with comparable numbers to Peele's previous also.

Edited August 28, 2022 by Ipickthiswhiterose

[charlie Jatinder]

15 minutes ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

 

Get Out: 79m

Us: 80

Nope: 20m

 

Sure, relative to US dom, black-lead movies have a tough time internationally. Not sure that's enough to cover this case though given Peele's previous record.

 

Also note that Escape Room, another horror film with Black lead, was breakout international hit with comparable numbers to Peele's previous also.

Nope seems like will be reaching around $50-60M INT, which is in line with US considering even USA is dropping 30% from US.

 

Though fact that its already on PVOD will hurt it considering it only started INT run in many markets last week.

Edited August 28, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[CJohn]

Not even 200M WW on a 70M budget is a big yikes for Nope.

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

Not even 200M WW on a 70M budget is a big yikes for Nope.

 

I  think "Big yikes" is a tad much. The high DOM proportion is a double edged sword - it indicates Peele is shrinking worldwide (and that the delayed WW release for this movie was a bizarre and awful choice) - but it also means the % take is good and this should be enough to be a solid moneymaker long term.

 

And we're talking about a filmmaker who can just tone down the budget if that's what he's asked to do long term (a la the Branargh Poirot stuff post Nile). Depends on his long term goals somewhat. He hasn't got the Nolan "Do whatever you want" card unconditionally. But I think he would still retain it up to a 50m or so budget.

[M37]

For Nope, I wouldn’t focus so much on the budget vs revenue for this individual film. From Universal’s perspective, keep in mind this was greenlit before COVID, and they made very good ROI on Peele’s first 2 outings, so a bigger budget/lower profit outing that keeps the hot director happy is still a solid investment longterm. Over his 3 films combined, they’re still way ahead, having helped build a solid brand that will pay dividends going forward 

Edited August 28, 2022 by M37

[Krissykins]

3 hours ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

 

Get Out: 79m

Us: 80

Nope: 20m

 

Sure, relative to US dom, black-lead movies have a tough time internationally. Not sure that's enough to cover this case though given Peele's previous record.

 

Also note that Escape Room, another horror film with Black lead, was breakout international hit with comparable numbers to Peele's previous also.

The Escape Room films did well internationally, but both released in China. 

[Doffy]

35 per sun drop  i think with actuals tgm will gross 5m or close to it.

[Eric the Ape]

 

[krla]

15 hours ago, Valonqar said:

People changed habits too. They are now more selective what to catch in theaters and what to wait for on streaming. Might revert to old habit later but right now it seems to be the case. Not to mention that some streaming movies turned into bigger deal than theatrical releases. Prey, for example, was big and got people talk about it more than whatever was released around that time. Also, streaming shows. Stranger Things, House of the Dragon were/are massive, LOTR:ROP will most likely keep a lot of people at home as well. 

For all we know, if Prey was released theatrically, it would have bombed. I've noticed that the movies that seem to do well in theaters (other than Minions) has little impact on online conversations, whereas movies and shows on streaming are prominent in online discussions. I don't think I've seen Top Gun mentioned outside of movie forums/subs.

 

It's kind of like network TV. I haven't seen a major prime time show brought up casually online, outside of specific forums/subs for TV or those shows. NCIS, FBI, The Equalizer, This is Us, Blue Bloods, Law & Order SVU, etc, basically don't exist online. And it's kind of funny, because a ton of those shows basically celebrate dirty cops and police brutality, you'd think they would have been a topic of conversation in the past 2 years, but crickets. 

 

Other than Marvel and Minions, I've seen little mention of films in general online discourse, unless it's "political." Only mentions I saw of Fantastic Beasts were because of the controversy around JK Rowling. Lightyear only got mentioned because of a kiss. Flops and bombs seem to make great fodder for online conversations. I've seen them talked about more than films like Elvis, Where the Crawdads Sing or Everything Everywhere. 

 

But shows originally released on streaming have far more online discussion. I've read more talk about She-Hulk in the past couple days than I have about Thor and Strange this entire summer. I've seen Prey talked about more than Top Gun. 

 

The average online commenter, imo, is unlikely to watch anything in theaters, with the exception of MCU.

 

I think the pandemic caused a great shift. Those who don't leave their homes are terminally online, have a bigger impact on the conversation, and only really get entertainment through streaming. Those who go to theaters are less likely to be online, less likely to comment, and if they do, they aren't spending hours online each day. 

[Eric the Ape]