THE OFFICIAL BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER WEEKEND THREAD | 181M OW

[Cmasterclay]

22 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Studios are still experimenting with specialty titles as the chains that would've powered these movies to $100K+ PTAs are simply no more. Given that it had to work with whatever screen space it had and is clearly designed as a wide release anyway, The Fabelmans did pretty well given the circumstances. No need to sound the alarm here.

We keep saying this and then these films keep failing. There's simply not evidence that adult audiences in LA and NYC couldn't find these films if the market still existed.

[Grebacio]

Off topic but anyone else has been experiencing problems while scrolling the forum on mobile?

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

1 hour ago, Flopped said:

Wild that his first movie In The Bedroom made 36M in the US on a 2M budget, with no starpower. Different times. 

 

 

Little Children was in 2006 and made $5.46 million despite having Oscar buzz and Kate Winslet. Maybe In the Bedroom was the anomaly for Todd Field box office and TÁR is within his normal range.

 

1 hour ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

Some folks around here seem to need to be reminded of the perspective that, pound for pound, not as single movie that we are talking about here: Not Avatar, Not WF, not Top Gun Maverick, not Infinity War, is even vaguely in the same ionosphere of actual relative domestic box office success as Gone With the Wind.

 

Nor will they.

 

Nor is it physically possible in the year 2022.

 

Nor will they come within anything that might feasibly be described as 'close'.

 

And.......that doesn't for one instance make them any less successful. Everything is relative and that's ok.

Gone with the Wind benefits from a number/scale of re-releases over time that modern movies don't get, due to changes with technology. People went to the movies more before television, but the US population was much smaller. There were also 40 other movies released in December 1939, yet GWTW as the one that connected the most and hung on to be enduringly popular.

[Factcheck]

8 minutes ago, Verrows said:

But clearly the audience treated it like a mega event judging by the inflated $36M preview number.

A movie becomes the most important movie when the audience believes that the lead character is the most important character. The same reason why Iron Man 3 made twice as much at the box office as Iron Man 2.

[grey ghost]

43 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

eh, it was smaller than DC back then.

 

How so?

 

IM3 was huge.

[charlie Jatinder]

46 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Looking at demos, the movie was held back from exceeding the 1st due to losing the Caucasian demo, either through them stopping going to movies all together (which has been a big post-Covid trend, except for Top Gun 2) or just passing on this one.

 

Black Panther 1 OW was 35% Caucasian https://www.cbsnews.com/news/black-panther-box-office-numbers-show-representation-pays-off/ 

$202M * ,35 = $70.7M

 

Since Deadline didn't update the Caucasian demo from it's 20% (but did mention the top 2 demos), I'm gonna assume that didn't go up for Black Panther 2's Sat/Sun

 

$180M * .20 = $36M

 

The difference is $34.7M lost to OW if the same folks had come out...and that's the difference between $180 and $215M.

 

I find it really hard to believe that caucasian dropped to less than half of first one. There gotta be something off with polling.

[grey ghost]

180 x 2.75 = 495m

 

I think Disney will be fine with this.

 

Not many movies this year will be bigger.

[grey ghost]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I find it really hard to believe that caucasian dropped to less than half of first one. There gotta be something off with polling.

 

Back then lots of casuals and fanboys made sure they watched every MCU movie.

 

That's not the case today.

[Brainbug]

4 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Back then lots of casuals and fanboys made sure they watched every MCU movie.

 

That's not the case today.

 

"Back then" = 2018.

 

Man, it might be because of Covid, but these last 4 years ... they feel like a whole decade.

[charlie Jatinder]

7 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Back then lots of casuals and fanboys made sure they watched every MCU movie.

 

That's not the case today.

Then there must be data to support that?

 

Today we are opening and doing in full numbers which are deemed "disappointing"! and yet they are bigger than the period you stating.

 

Edit: I thought your reply was in context of MCU peak thing. Lemne think about this whole demographic thing.

Edited November 13, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[TwoMisfits]

9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I find it really hard to believe that caucasian dropped to less than half of first one. There gotta be something off with polling.

 

Not really - they weren't the majority for the 1st Black Panther so being low for the 2nd would be a given, they've been the demo that went strongest into streaming, and they are the demo still the least likely to come back to cinema.

 

[filmscholar]

Congrats to the whole BP:WF team on 180.   Amazing considering everything that happen to this sequel.  Unlike other Sequels, this one lost the Main Lead.  Heath died and didn't return for "Dark Knight Rises" but Christian Bale still returned.   So that's a drop of about 22 million sans inflation.   This is a huge success.  Also more times than not, the sequel drops. 

 

Yes there are exceptions to the rule but they are more outliers than the norm.  "The Last Jedi" does come to mind.   Even "Ultron" dropped from "Avengers" before exploding with I.W. and E.G.   We will never know what would of happen had Chadwick lived.   One things for sure, it would have had a Summer Release if he did survive, IMO.   Overall we'll see how it holds even though it probably will be a frontloaded sequel.   Also is this the first time in Box Office history that the #1 and #2 movie start with "Black"?    

Edited November 13, 2022 by filmscholar

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Not really - they weren't the majority for the 1st Black Panther so being low for the 2nd would be a given, they've been the demo that went strongest into streaming, and they are the demo still the least likely to come back to cinema.

I don't think Asians would be behind Caucasian in streaming and yet they are up. Every other demo has improved from BP1 and Caucasian have gone half.

 

That just doesn't make any sense.

[filmlover]

27 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

We keep saying this and then these films keep failing. There's simply not evidence that adult audiences in LA and NYC couldn't find these films if the market still existed.

@BoxOfficeFangrl also described exactly the hurdles these movies have faced. The thing about The Fabelmans is that it's clearly a major studio Thanksgiving weekend release (to an extent, it's been confirmed it'll "only" be playing in 600 theaters) and the marketing has been mostly emphasizing that. It's not TAR or The Banshees of Inisherin, which came from filmmakers who have never been "commercial" types (Spielberg is arguably the most famous living director, with perhaps only Scorsese as his competition for the title) and were always going to face an uphill battle once they moved beyond LA/NY. I'm gonna wait to see how it does when it expands that weekend, especially when sales have been looking decent this far out at theaters near me.

Edited November 13, 2022 by filmlover

[Johnny Tran]

1 hour ago, efialtes76 said:

Stupid tweet...

 

 

that's a strange comp.  One's a sequel to a very popular character and the other was a character that's pretty much new to most people.. 

[Factcheck]

15 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I don't think Asians would be behind Caucasian in streaming and yet they are up. Every other demo has improved from BP1 and Caucasian have gone half.

 

That just doesn't make any sense.

Caucasians are the demographic group that most tends to skip a movie if they believe that movie is "woke," as some Caucasians are left-leaning and some are right-leaning.

[Cmasterclay]

22 minutes ago, filmlover said:

@BoxOfficeFangrl also described exactly the hurdles these movies have faced. The thing about The Fabelmans is that it's clearly a major studio Thanksgiving weekend release (to an extent, it's been confirmed it'll "only" be playing in 600 theaters) and the marketing has been mostly emphasizing that. It's not TAR or The Banshees of Inisherin, which came from filmmakers who have never been "commercial" types (Spielberg is arguably the most famous living director, with perhaps only Scorsese as his competition for the title) and were always going to face an uphill battle once they moved beyond LA/NY. I'm gonna wait to see how it does when it expands that weekend, especially when sales have been looking decent this far out at theaters near me.

If it makes 15m total, I'd be pleasantly surprised. You know my thoughts. Streaming has killed the Oscar film.

[Flopped]

What's up with Lyle's bizarre box office run? 

[Noctis]

45 minutes ago, Shawn said:

$56.5M Sat

$39.5M Sun studio projection

 

Too much of a Sunday drop from Disney so it's an obvious overestimation.

 

Most likely $42m-$43m Sunday.

 

$182m-$183m OW.

[AnDr3s]

it seems the one billion worldwide for every mcu movie club of 2022 really went 0/3

Edited November 13, 2022 by AnDr3s