THE OFFICIAL BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER WEEKEND THREAD | 181M OW

[Verrows]

5 minutes ago, Flopped said:

Is 28m supposed to be great? didn't MOM do much better and that wasn't even a sequel to a monster smash. 

No, it is quite low. Shockingly so.

 

But....

 

The weekend number is still tracking to come close to MoM so the conclusion is that Black Panther is just a walkup driven, slightly backloaded franchise closer to Jurassic World than the rest of its CBM counterparts.

 

That's how I see it anyway 

[Spidey Freak]

8 minutes ago, Flopped said:

Is 28m supposed to be great? didn't MOM do much better and that wasn't even a sequel to a monster smash. 

 

MoM was the first MCU film after NWH with the trailer being the end credits tease, a direct continuation of the multiverse saga, hinted at Fox Marvel characters (with rumors claiming much more) and starred Wanda fresh off her Emmy noms

[Eric is Quiet]

6 minutes ago, Flopped said:

Is 28m supposed to be great? didn't MOM do much better and that wasn't even a sequel to a monster smash. 

Well MOM had the Spider-Man coattails and was pushed as a major event piece. As for Wakanda Forever, expectations are different because it's a sequel to a monster smash. Black Panther isn't really something I think we should compare to the other MCU origin films and more like a Jurassic World or Sorcerer's Stone, where the first movie overperformed like crazy and the sequel is moving back down to Earth.

[Nero]

2 minutes ago, Verrows said:

No, it is quite low. Shockingly so.

 

But....

 

The weekend number is still tracking to come close to MoM so the conclusion is that Black Panther is just a walkup driven, slightly backloaded franchise closer to Jurassic World than the rest of its CBM counterparts.

 

That's how I see it anyway 

I miss old MCU movies pre IW when it was pretty backloaded.

[Verrows]

And yeah, I think in hindsight the MoM previews were really inflated. If it was truly the event everyone thought it was then that preview number would have translated to a $210M or even $220M weekend. The fact it "only" translated into a $187.4M weekend is what's throwing expectations off. It makes the $28M number for WF look really weak.

 

Moral of the story I guess is I continue to underestimate just how hyped of an event MoM was. The lacklustre word of mouth really weighted down the weekend after a massive preview number.

Edited November 11, 2022 by Verrows

[Johnny Tran]

hmm below MoM and TL&T ...  good start but not a crazy start vs. those comps. 

[Flopped]

2 minutes ago, Verrows said:

And yeah, I think in hindsight the MoM previews were really inflated. If it was truly the even everyone thought it was then that preview number would have translated to a $210M of even $220M weekend. The fact it "only" translated into a $187.4M weekend is what's throwing expectations off. It makes the $28M number for WF look really weak.

 

Moral of the story I guess is I continue to underestimate just how hyped of an event MoM was. The lacklustre word of mouth really weighted down the weekend after a massive preview number.

Interesting bc despite its flaws I found it to be one of the more watchable MCU movies 

[Verrows]

1 minute ago, Flopped said:

Interesting bc despite its flaws I found it to be one of the more watchable MCU movies 

Oh I know. That's why I'm so stumped as well. I'm seeing it later today but the first trailer was absolutely fantastic (top 3 MCU trailer for me) and I know I wasn't the only one it resonated with.

 

Another point: we can't underestimate just how many people decided there was no point in seeing this without T'Challa. What I thought was that the Black Panther BRAND is so strong that people show up to the sequel regardless. Sort of like "It's awful that Chadwick passed but this is Black Panther and I'm there!" Doesn't seem to be the case though.

 

Good news is it's still going to be a hit! The weekend proper will be strong, unlike the frontloaded MCU films we got so far this year, and it's going to end with a big domestic total. Well under the first obviously, but I think most people expected that.

[MattW]

nvm

Edited November 11, 2022 by MattW
Eh

[PlatnumRoyce]

Thursday night postrak data's come in

 

* 5 stars across parents, kids and [non-parent or kid audiences]^1

* 91.75% positive reviews among all audiences. 

* The  [non-parent or kid audiences] recommended the film at an 83% rate. 

 

Given point 5 stars from both parents and kids, and the fact that they're only going to make up at most 1/4th of OD box office, overall %Recommended is going to be some number in 81/82 range. It's probably going to decline a little bit but this looks like its in great shape for audience scores even with regression.

 

That really does place it in A+ reception crowd (even if some films in that range, like Ragnarök only got an A score) a/k/a top 10/15 anecdotes deadline's dropped about postrak % recommended.

 

91% positive is similarly high (22nd-26th highest)

films at or above that metric in similar genre: Rogue One (4.5/91/77), Shang-Chi (5/91/78), Endgame (5/92/85), Jungle book (92% positive), Incredibles 2 (5/93/83), Woman King (95% positive), Black Panther (5/95/88), Avatar's re-release (95/88), Top Gun Maverick (5/96/84), No Way Home (5/96/91), Deadpool (97/88)

 

^1 posttrak calling this audience "general audience" is just intentionally confusing.

[Caylu]

What is the reason for this? 

-

(7)

Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile

Sony Pictures

$175,000

+11%

+16%

3,005

$58

$37,638,625

35

[charlie Jatinder]

MCU Phase IV Posttrak

 

Far From Home - 90%
Black Widow - 88%
Shang Chi - 91%
Eternals - 77%
No Way Home - 96%
Multiverse of Madness - 82%
Love and Thunder - 77%

 

Wakanda Forever - 92%

[Nikostar]

5 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

Thursday night postrak data's come in

 

* 5 stars across parents, kids and [non-parent or kid audiences]^1

* 91.75% positive reviews among all audiences. 

* The  [non-parent or kid audiences] recommended the film at an 83% rate. 

 

Given point 5 stars from both parents and kids, and the fact that they're only going to make up at most 1/4th of OD box office, overall %Recommended is going to be some number in 81/82 range. It's probably going to decline a little bit but this looks like its in great shape for audience scores even with regression.

 

That really does place it in A+ reception crowd (even if some films in that range, like Ragnarök only got an A score) a/k/a top 10/15 anecdotes deadline's dropped about postrak % recommended.

 

91% positive is similarly high (22nd-26th highest)

films at or above that metric in similar genre: Rogue One (4.5/91/77), Shang-Chi (5/91/78), Endgame (5/92/85), Jungle book (92% positive), Incredibles 2 (5/93/83), Woman King (95% positive), Black Panther (5/95/88), Avatar's re-release (95/88), Top Gun Maverick (5/96/84), No Way Home (5/96/91), Deadpool (97/88)

 

^1 posttrak calling this audience "general audience" is just intentionally confusing.

WOM seems to be strong. I think we truly underestimated how much the general audience missed a serious MCU film and not just a CGI joke fest.

Edited November 11, 2022 by Nikostar

[Verrows]

A 3x OD multi would be back to the "old days" for an MCU film. Do you guys think $56M true Friday is possible?

[Shawn Robbins]

I get the sense there is some doom and gloom about WF's number, and must say there is nothing unexpected about it. This is essentially the baseline Thursday gross that was predicted as part of $170-180M tracking before and right at the outset of presales.

 

This number should not be compared to Thor or Strange earlier this year in a direct manner. Thor had summer weekdays, Strange had giant presales, and Wakanda has a holiday today when half of the country is out of school. This has played out in all presales monitoring as WF's Friday sales have led Thursday's total since earlier this week, by large margins in some key markets.

 

That never happened with either Strange or Thor, which were more frontloaded to Thursday during presales until the very end.

 

The true Friday number and Saturday drop will tell much more as things progress. But Thursday's number is actually pretty solid for the moment, all things considered.

 

Patience is paramount.

[Liiviig 1998]

9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

MCU Phase IV Posttrak

 

Far From Home - 90%
Black Widow - 88%
Shang Chi - 91%
Eternals - 77%
No Way Home - 96%
Multiverse of Madness - 82%
Love and Thunder - 77%

 

Wakanda Forever - 92%

Basically it's close to shangchi . Still strong A CS  incoming.

[Reed121]

10 minutes ago, Shawn said:

I get the sense there is some doom and gloom about WF's number, and must say there is nothing unexpected about it. This is essentially the baseline Thursday gross that was predicted as part of $170-180M tracking before and right at the outset of presales.

 

This number should not be compared to Thor or Strange earlier this year in a direct manner. Thor had summer weekdays, Strange had giant presales, and Wakanda has a holiday today when half of the country is out of school. This has played out in all presales monitoring as WF's Friday sales have led Thursday's total since earlier this week, by large margins in some key markets.

 

That never happened with either Strange or Thor, which were more frontloaded to Thursday during presales until the very end.

 

The true Friday number and Saturday drop will tell much more as things progress. But Thursday's number is actually pretty solid for the moment, all things considered.

 

Patience is paramount.

Is there any chance it doesn’t drop on Saturday?

[Porthos]

 

[Shawn Robbins]

14 minutes ago, Reed121 said:

Is there any chance it doesn’t drop on Saturday?

From true Friday (minus previews)? Definitely a chance, but it's a tough ask with the holiday. I'd cautiously expect a small decline depending how big Friday ends up being.

[Jiffy]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Omg no what a legend.

Only Hamill compares for comic book voiceover work.