Weekend Thread | Violent Night 1.1M in previews

[DAJK]

Bring on James Cameron please.

[Nikostar]

Have a feeling there are going to be some epic meltdowns unless some of you get your expectations for Avatar under control 

[narniadis]

I'm just saying, the deep lack of families overall is a permanent stunt on the box office. Even for poorly received films like Strange World, the jump should have been better but when a significant % of your demographic is missing, and or just not involved (females) it hurts. When you have to consider the cost of movie tickets versus the box of eggs or gallon of milk (let alone the rest of expenses) its a given what loses out first. 

 

Regarding BP, I personally still think it legs out over 450m due to nothing other than Puss and Avatar as big draws. But presales aside, its beyond time the Avatar expectations be a bit more in check... cause again, the Family demographic will not be feeding it as deeply as the past. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

Have a feeling there are going to be some epic meltdowns unless some of you get your expectations for Avatar under control 

 

What're your expectations for it? 

 

[Nikostar]

27 minutes ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

 

What're your expectations for it? 

 

Maybe 600 to 650. Box office is not the same now and I see hype for avatar but it does not seem to be this must see event.  Audience is these days are used to great CGI and spectacles. It also does not help that the director is saying the film needs to make 2 billion just to break even. I think it will do great but not Mother Earth shattering like Endgames. Especially in this box office climate. Since Covid and now streaming has become a big thing it seems like audiences are just waiting versus rushing out to theaters like I used to 5 to 10 years ago.

Edited December 3, 2022 by Nikostar

[filmlover]

Is Strange World even going to reach Treasure Planet’s miserable $38M total? Good god. 
 

Happy to see Violent Night slightly overperforming expectations, something in short supply these days. It looks like crazy fun, seeing it today. 
 

With its drop and the fact it’s going to be on PVOD in two weeks, it’s pretty much “well, that’s that” when it comes to The Fabelmans (and this fourth quarter’s awards contenders in general).

 

Spoiler Alert’s $46K start yesterday from 6 theaters is solid enough, hopefully the expansion isn’t terrible next weekend.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

6 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

It also does not help that the director is saying the film needs to make 2 billion just to break even.

 

That's a misquote. He was referencing it needing to be the 3rd or 4th highest grossing film all-time back when they started initially discussing a sequel (2010). Back then, that was only about $1.1B or so. The entire development cost of the 4 Avatar sequels will indeed be north of $1B but this particular film is in the $350-400M range. 

 

As for me, I'm sticking with $675-725M DOM.

[wildphantom]

21 minutes ago, narniadis said:

I'm just saying, the deep lack of families overall is a permanent stunt on the box office. Even for poorly received films like Strange World, the jump should have been better but when a significant % of your demographic is missing, and or just not involved (females) it hurts. When you have to consider the cost of movie tickets versus the box of eggs or gallon of milk (let alone the rest of expenses) its a given what loses out first. 

 

Regarding BP, I personally still think it legs out over 450m due to nothing other than Puss and Avatar as big draws. But presales aside, its beyond time the Avatar expectations be a bit more in check... cause again, the Family demographic will not be feeding it as deeply as the past. 

yeah they will. They know they can watch Strange World at home in a few weeks. Avatar though? They know what’s coming. They’ll be there in massive numbers, just like they were for NWH last Xmas. 

[JustLurking]

4 minutes ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

 

That's a misquote. He was referencing it needing to be the 3rd or 4th highest grossing film all-time back when they started initially discussing a sequel (2010). Back then, that was only about $1.1B or so. The entire development cost of the 4 Avatar sequels will indeed be north of $1B but this particular film is in the $350-400M range. 

 

As for me, I'm sticking with $675-725M DOM.

I kind of like the 2b headlines, to be honest, even though they are out of context and Cameron never actually says 2b at any point, just for some extra fun from the doomers.

 

I don't really think the film will miss that mark at this point anyway unless it sucks, and if it does suck, well, it deserves to miss it.

Edited December 3, 2022 by JustLurking

[John Marston]

Black Panther: WF is an underperformer and the BP franchise is in trouble. It will have a massive drop from the 1.2 billion the first made without China and Russia on a bigger budget. While it lost its star it had the whole Chadwick tribute factor which would cause intrigue. The next one won't have that so it will likely make even less money on a similar or larger budget. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

4 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Black Panther: WF is an underperformer and the BP franchise is in trouble. It will have a massive drop from the 1.2 billion the first made without China and Russia on a bigger budget. While it lost its star it had the whole Chadwick tribute factor which would cause intrigue. The next one won't have that so it will likely make even less money on a similar or larger budget. 

 

While I agree it has underperformed expectations I disagree that BP (or any MCU franchise) is in trouble. At the end of the day, it's going to be the 6th highest grossing film of the year WW and 3rd highest domestically. BP isn't in trouble, Thor isn't in trouble, Doctor Strange isn't in trouble. The marketplace is different and adjustments will occur. 

[Factcheck]

5 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Black Panther: WF is an underperformer and the BP franchise is in trouble. It will have a massive drop from the 1.2 billion the first made without China and Russia on a bigger budget. While it lost its star it had the whole Chadwick tribute factor which would cause intrigue. The next one won't have that so it will likely make even less money on a similar or larger budget. 

The next one is not releasing before 2027, and the performance of that movie will depend upon Shuri's role in Avengers 5 and 6

[Nikostar]

8 minutes ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

 

While I agree it has underperformed expectations I disagree that BP (or any MCU franchise) is in trouble. At the end of the day, it's going to be the 6th highest grossing film of the year WW and 3rd highest domestically. BP isn't in trouble, Thor isn't in trouble, Doctor Strange isn't in trouble. The marketplace is different and adjustments will occur. 

This

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

@Nikostar Lets stop discussing the content of BPWF outside of the spoiler thread, please. We're still in our spoiler free window for another week. 

Thanks! 

 

[CJohn]

Solid OD for Violent Night. The rest is miserable.

[M37]

21 minutes ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

While I agree it has underperformed expectations

Did it though ... or were expectations just set too high? I kept trying to push back against the X% drop from the first framing in the under $400M club, but that perception was very sticky, and I think that's why many view it as "disappointing". But IMO ~$450M was always the "good, but not great" target number, with upper $4s/topping $500M being a great outcome.

 

Still on pace to be the second - if not highest - grossing Tier 2 release. It just wasn't able to recapture the magic to vault back into T1, or become the first to straddle the line between the two. Quantamania is probably a sub $300M (~$250M?) target, GOTG3 a ~$400M one, but both with the potential to recapture the MCU quality - aka "fun" - and push higher by like $50M

 

[Blankments]

@Eric Claus @WrathOfHan it's the beginning of the last month of January!!

 

26x:

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever: The Conjuring 2 Round 2, Wrath of Man, Bullet Train Dolby, Beast Dolby, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story Round 4 IMAX, Top Gun: Maverick Round 3 IMAX, Three Thousand Years of Longing Dolby, Orphan: First Kill, Bodies Bodies Bodies, Spider-Man: No Way Home Round 3 Dolby, Jaws Round 2 IMAX, Barbarian Dolby, The Woman King Dolby, Confess, Fletch, Moonage Daydream IMAX, Don’t Worry Darling Dolby, Avatar Round 4 IMAX 3D, See How They Run, Tár, Black Adam Dolby, Halloween Ends, Smile, Till, 8 Mile, Armageddon Time, The Banshees of Inisherin

 

22x:

 

Avatar: The Way of Water: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness 35mm, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Round 2 IMAX, Top Gun: Maverick Dolby, The Bob’s Burgers Movie, Lightyear Dolby, Lightyear Round 2, Thor: Love and Thunder Dolby, Minions: The Rise of Gru, Thor: Love and Thunder Round 2, E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial Round 2 IMAX, Top Gun: Maverick Round 3 IMAX, Jaws Round 2 IMAX, Newsies, Selena, Avatar Round 2 Dolby 3D, Avatar Round 3 3D, Black Adam Dolby, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby Atmos Round 0, The Menu, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, The Fabelmans

 

15x:

 

The Menu: Benediction, Nope Dolby, Beast Dolby, Bodies Bodies Bodies, Barbarian Dolby, The Woman King Dolby, Don’t Worry Darling Dolby, Avatar Round 2 Dolby 3D, Avatar Round 3 3D, Halloween Kills, See How They Run, Triangle of Sadness, Halloween Ends, 8 Mile, The Banshees of Inisherin

 

10x:

 

Strange World: Lightyear Dolby, Lightyear Round 2, Thor: Love and Thunder Dolby, Minions: The Rise of Gru, Thor: Love and Thunder Round 2 IMAX, E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial Round 2 IMAX, Newsies, Avatar Round 2 Dolby 3D, Avatar Round 3 3D, Avatar Round 4 IMAX 3D
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves: Top Gun: Maverick Round 3 IMAX, Orphan: First Kill, Spider-Man: No Way Home Round 3 Dolby, Confess, Fletch, Avatar Round 2 Dolby, Avatar Round 3 3D, Black Adam Dolby, Smile, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby Atmos Round 0, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby
Babylon: Don’t Worry Darling Dolby, Tár, Halloween Ends, Smile, Till, Armageddon Time, The Banshees of Inisherin, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby Atmos Round 0, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby, The Fabelmans

 

9x:

 

I Wanna Dance with Somebody: The Woman King Dolby, Selena, The Invitation, Tár, Black Adam Dolby, Halloween Ends, 8 Mile, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby Atmos Round 0, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby

 

8x:

 

Devotion: Top Gun: Maverick Dolby, The Woman King Dolby, Confess, Fletch, Moonage Daydream IMAX, See How They Run, The Invitation, Smile, Till
The Fabelmans: Avatar Round 2 Dolby 3D, Avatar Round 3 3D, Bros, Tár, All Quiet on the Western Front, Till, Armageddon Time, The Banshees of Inisherin

 

7x:

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania: The Conjuring 2 Round 2, Wrath of Man, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby Atmos Round 0, The Menu, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Round 2

 

6x:

 

Oppenheimer: Nope Dolby, The Black Phone, Nope Round 2 IMAX, Bullet Train Dolby, Jaws Round 2 IMAX, Avatar Round 4 IMAX 3D
The Inspection: Pearl, Triangle of Sadness, Till, 8 Mile, Armageddon Time, The Banshees of Inisherin

 

5x:

 

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish: The Bad Guys, Lightyear Round 2, Minions: The Rise of Gru, E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial Round 2 IMAX, Spider-Man: No Way Home Round 3
White Noise: Wendell & Wild, Aftersun, Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio 35mm, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Zodiac 35mm

 

4x:

 

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse: Sing 2 Dolby, Belle Round 2, Morbius Dolby, Sonic the Hedgehog 2 Dolby
Firestarter: Da 5 Bloods, The Outfit, Ambulance, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One: Top Gun: Maverick Dolby, Jurassic World Dominion IMAX, Top Gun: Maverick Round 2, Elvis Dolby
Shazam! Fury of the Gods: DC League of Super-Pets, Don’t Worry Darling Dolby, Black Adam Dolby, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby
Knock at the Cabin: Don’t Worry Darling Dolby, Halloween Kills, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, The Fabelmans
Spoiler Alert: Tár, Armageddon Time, The Fabelmans, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Round 2
Empire of Light: See How They Run, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Menu, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Round 2

Leonor Will Never Die: Decision to Leave, 35mm, Aftersun, Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio 35mm, Zodiac 35mm

 

 

3x: 

House Party: Black Adam Dolby, Halloween Ends, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby Atmos Round 0
The Little Mermaid: Avatar Round 2 Dolby 3D, Avatar Round 3 3D, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby
Violent Night: Halloween Ends, 8 Mile, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby
The Super Mario Bros. Movie: Black Adam Dolby, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby Atmos Round 0, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby
Plane: Black Adam Dolby, The Banshees of Inisherin, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Creed III: Black Adam Dolby, Till, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Round 2
M3GAN: Halloween Ends, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Round 2
A Man Called Otto: The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Round 2

2x:

The Comeback Trail: Tenet Round 3 IMAX, Honest Thief Dolby
The Marvels: The Conjuring 2 Round 2, Wrath of Man
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3: The Conjuring 2 Round 2, Wrath of Man
Fantastic Four: The Conjuring 2 Round 2, Wrath of Man
She Said: The Woman King Dolby, See How They Run
Bones & All: Halloween Kills, Smile
Adhira: RRR, RRR Round 2
80 for Brady: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery Round 2

1x: 

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes: Lightyear Dolby
MaXXXine: Pearl
Loving Highsmith: In the Mood for Love 35mm
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed: Triangle of Sadness
Broker: Triangle of Sadness
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery: Halloween Ends
Women Talking: Till
Inside: Armageddon Time
John Wick: Chapter 4: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Dolby Atmos Round 0
Chevalier: The Menu
Roald Dahl’s Matilda: The Musical: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Elemental: The Fabelmans
The Jesus Revolution: The Fabelmans
The Whale: The Fabelmans

 

Edited December 3, 2022 by Blankments

[Eric Prime]

@Blankments will give you mine later today after I see Armageddon Time, but how the hell do you put up with seeing a trailer 26 times? Or 22 times? I can't imagine watching something even 10 times would ever be tolerable.

[Flip]

Feels like Violent Night is the exact type of movie that can perform well over the rest of the month. Everything else (Puss in Boots and Avatar) is more tailored for families so I think Violent Night can counter program well, plus audiences seem to like it

[Porthos]

In the BPWF < 400M club there was a decent side debate about whether or not the GA would view BPWF as a sequel to BP or more of a spinoff.  Or something in-between (which where I was more or less landing).

 

The thing is, we didn't have an answer at the time.  And maybe we still don't.  But I think the folks who were bringing up the point that losing the main/title character of the first film was being blown off too readily were far more right than those who thought it wouldn't impact things too much.  

 

Was the tragic loss of Chadwick Boseman the only reason for this drop off?  No.  At least, IMO.

Was it the main reason?  Maybe! I think it's hard to say it wasn't a major contributing factor.

 

When it comes down to it, I think one of the undersold aspects of why various MCU films did so well is that folks just liked the characters/stories resonated with the GA. Black Panther undoubtedly had a major resonance with a lot of the GA (and not just African Americans, as one doesn't reach 700m DOM on one demo alone).  And I have to think Chadwick Boseman was a major part of that.   

 

Now for whatever reason(s), the GA isn't taking to this story/Letitia Wright as the new Black Panther as much.   Or maybe it's just really really really hard to recapture lightning in a bottle. Dunno!  Probably some of column A and some of column B.

 

Either way, in isolation I think @M37 is right that this is a perfectly cromulent result for BPWF — it's just really really REALLY hard to view it in isolation.  

 

(now what happens with a mooted BP3 when it'll be completely standing on its own two feet without any sort of assist from the first BP is a whole 'nother debate — and one I'm gonna stay well out of, thankyew veddymuch)

 

Edited December 3, 2022 by Porthos