Avatar: The Way of Water -- Domestic Opening Weekend Contest!!

[Porthos]

LIVE LOOK AT THIS THREAD RIGHT NOW

 

 

[NCsoft]

OK after reading all the available information, will have to drop my prediction by quite a bit

Now : $165.55M (still on the optimistic side probably, but think I'll stick with this).

Edited December 14, 2022 by NCsoft

[cooldude97]

$35 because that how much i paid for my tickets

[FilmFincher]

I'll drop mine as well $159,298,632

[Ronin46]

On 12/13/2022 at 1:48 PM, Ronin46 said:

172M  (down from 180 2 weeks ago)

 

Got to take it down to 145 now.

[shachi86]

Fuck it, $115M

[Flip]

Readjusting to $159,908,456. IM should be decent enough that it can get to around $160M off at least 17M previews

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Something to consider….

 

Since 2018, only 5 films have gone 8x off of $15M+ previews. Four of those films released during summer and the other was Black Panther. 

[jedijake]

So....I'm REALLY puzzled right now. How does what everyone is doing with Avatar2 that different from what some were accused of about BPWF? Why was it a bannable offense with BPWF but okay with Avatar 2?

Edited December 14, 2022 by jedijake

[Fanboy]

On 12/12/2022 at 12:34 PM, Fanboy said:

$190,107,343

I'm gonna drop my prediction by exactly 20M at $170,107,343. I know that's still a bit higher than most predictions but I am still calling an unsually high IM from previews. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

11 minutes ago, jedijake said:

So....I'm REALLY puzzled right now. How does what everyone is doing with Avatar2 that different from what some were accused of about BPWF? Why was it a bannable offense with BPWF but okay with Avatar 2?

What would that be, specifically?

[jedijake]

1 minute ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

What would that be, specifically?

Dropping predictions. BPWF will probably end up in the $430's, but if people suggested that a couple of weeks ago-ouch! Now, some are suggesting Ava2 will open less than $150 m (probably will happen) and maybe even less than $600 m domestic (could very well happen). Does that count as "concern trolling"?

[Cooper Legion]

Dropping predictions is not a “bannable offense” for any movie. Nor is having low predictions generally. You could predict 300M total for BP or 400M for avatar and it’s fine.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

5 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Dropping predictions. BPWF will probably end up in the $430's, but if people suggested that a couple of weeks ago-ouch! Now, some are suggesting Ava2 will open less than $150 m (probably will happen) and maybe even less than $600 m domestic (could very well happen). Does that count as "concern trolling"?

No one cares if someone drops their predictions as data rolls in or they assess things in a way that’s differently than others. However, “concern trolling” or overtly baiting posts about lowering totals or films not meeting expectations/targets can become bannable when you keep doing it after being told to stop. 

[Lion Roar]

7 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Dropping predictions. BPWF will probably end up in the $430's, but if people suggested that a couple of weeks ago-ouch! Now, some are suggesting Ava2 will open less than $150 m (probably will happen) and maybe even less than $600 m domestic (could very well happen). Does that count as "concern trolling"?

This is literally the OW contest thread, not general discussion thread; are people not supposed to update their entries as data comes in? 

[B J]

157m

[JustLurking]

On 12/12/2022 at 11:07 AM, JustLurking said:

Going to go with 165,178,325. Still expecting strong distribution through the weekend though lack of final push has me worried. Let us see what happens.

Will bring that down to 140,178,325.

[grey ghost]

120,000,000

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

REMINDER

 

This contest ends at 12PM CST (Noon) on Thursday. Please make any changes you need to by then. I will be checking edit histories so there's no funny business! 

[Menor the Destroyer]

136,000,000 is my final prediction. Wanted to wait until right before the deadline but I don't think I'll remember tomorrow morning.