A2 WEEKEND THREAD | 134.1M DOM OW | Thurs 17m / Fri 36m / Sat 45m / Sun 36m

[ZattMurdock]

4 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

While I think R1 is good baseline, given it started with a higher OW DOM and, more importantly, is a SW movie so absolutely more front loaded, I think the baseline will be comfortably above the 3.45 OW DOM multiplier that R1 had. I'm thinking more 4 multi as the floor.

We don’t have the Sunday numbers yet but I’m considering for this that the OW is 140m. I think going over 4 while definitely possible way too optimistic. I’d rather temper expectations than throwing wild swings at the numbers. Anything over $500m DOM total is just gravy in my opinion.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

I find it poetic that after all the discourse, especially over the past couple of years, Avatar 2's performance will ultimately be perfectly middle of the road. Not the flop the detractors were expecting, but not the smash hit the fans were hoping for. I couldn't think of a funnier ending to this whole saga even if I tried.

[Gkalaitza]

wouldnt say x4 is the floor like the Johnny but it doesnt seem like a wildely optimistic figure either. Just somewhere in the upper range of possibilities . The rest of the week will make it somewhat more clear where the possibility of a x4 multi stands 

Edited December 18, 2022 by Gkalaitza

[kayumanggi]

What's a good Sunday number?

[JustLurking]

3 minutes ago, Alligator Zatt said:

We don’t have the Sunday numbers yet but I’m considering for this that the OW is 140m. I think going over 4 while definitely possible way too optimistic. I’d rather temper expectations than throwing wild swings at the numbers. Anything over $500m DOM total is just gravy in my opinion.

140 would require a drop of less than 10%, just seems like too much to me. Would be pretty crazy though.

[JohnnyGossamer]

7 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

What's a good Sunday number?

I'd think anything above the true Friday number of 36 is pretty good. 

[vale9001]

with christams eve and new years day eve ruining two saturdays some of you are too optimistic with the legs of this. 

550M final domestic. 

Edited December 18, 2022 by vale9001

[The Dark Alfred]

Decent Saturday jump. Comfortably ahead of TGM's OW. If AVATAR is as good as many say here, it should walk to 700m, right? Surely it can't finish below TITANIC with holidays coming, no competitipon and having all the PLF for a while? 

Edited December 18, 2022 by The Dark Alfred

[Gkalaitza]

The exact same drop as R1 gives a $36.5m Sunday. Idk how other parameters like world cup, length , plf demand, R1 being star wars etc balance exactly but it seems more likely to do slightly better than slightly worse

[vale9001]

6 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

Decent Saturday jump. Comfortably ahead of TGM's OW. If AVATAR is as good as many say here, it should walk to 700m, right? Surely it can't finish below TITANIC with holidays coming, no competitipon and having all the PLF for a while? 

For me it's even better than the first movie but it's not the same for the GP. The legs will be good because the world of mouth still will be big but it doesn't have the same multi vision factor then the first (fans should be honest with this).

The first is the perfect blockbuster machine in terms of narrative. This is more interested in world building and around 90 minutes of it is really "situationist cinema". For me less than 600M domestic for sure. 

Edited December 18, 2022 by vale9001

[JohnnyGossamer]

3 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

with christams eve and new years day eve ruining two saturdays some of you are too optimistic with the legs of this. 

550M final domestic. 

Part of why I have the legs higher is that this will have premium screens pretty much to itself for what? 8 weeks? 10 weeks? Does A2 have pretty much all the premium screens until Ant-Man 3 in mid February? I'm not positive but think it will... It will do extremely well on those screens into February. The experience is really impressive in a premium setting. WoM will echo that I bet similar to TGM. Gotta see it on the biggest, best screen in the area vibe. 

[ZattMurdock]

31 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

140 would require a drop of less than 10%, just seems like too much to me. Would be pretty crazy though.

I agree with Johnny that R1 arguably would behave more like a Star Wars film unlike Avatar, the caveat here is that I’m adamant that the repeated viewings game has changed since COVID, even in places that aren’t China.
 

What carried a lot of the crazy records from the past wasn’t just how much a cultural impact those films had or how much a ‘must see’ they were, but the fact that people were simply more keen to attend movie theaters back then. It’s not even about how many days a film is available at streaming - I fully expect both WF and A2 to have bigger windows than we use to have - but that the streaming throws a new twist and wrinkle on how we consume media.  Films like Maverick, No Way Home, Endgame, Avatar are very hard to come by, and I wholeheartedly believe that in normal conditions, No Way Home would have defied both Avatar and Endgame. What NWH and TGM lacked that the other films this year also did wasn’t interest, but a lack of repeated viewings and just a more ‘normal’ environment, and when you add how streaming is constantly giving us the shiny new thing to look forward to,  it makes for a very different scenario than we had in pre-pandemic days. TL;DR: In normal conditions, every single blockbuster that did crazy business since COVID would be even crazier, and we would have at the very least more 3 films in the $1B+ WW club (MoM, TL&T, BPWF), with both TGM and A2 going even higher.
 

Unlike Venom (the user, forgot his tag), I think COVID hesitancy is still very much a thing that is slowly disappearing, not just in China but everywhere. What is happening in China is clearly worse, but because of their own particular conditions of how they dealt with the virus - different types of vaccines, way too strict lockdown rules, etc. - but it’s still a thing that affects every other market. 
 

I think 140m is the absolute ceiling for A2’s OW, and I do expect to get to $1.3-1.5B WW when it’s all is said and done, but what A2 should be setting out to do isn’t breaking records, but reestablishing the franchise as something that interests the GA. I’m very confident that whatever this film ends up making, it’s sequel will do more.

Edited December 18, 2022 by Alligator Zatt

[Elessar]

13 hours ago, Ozymandias said:

 

lmao I forgot Titanic

 

1. ROTK

2. Gladiator

3. Titanic

4. Forrest Gump

 

You also forgot Braveheart and Dances with Wolves (although that was over 30 years ago).

[Gkalaitza]

8 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

You also forgot Braveheart and Dances with Wolves (although that was over 30 years ago).

So since people have been circlejerking over how Avatar is just "Dances with Wolves in space" for years its destined to win too

[JohnnyGossamer]

7 minutes ago, Alligator Zatt said:

I agree with Johnny that R1 arguably would behave more like a Star Wars film unlike Avatar, the caveat here is that I’m adamant that the repeated viewings game has changed since COVID, even in places that aren’t China.
 

What carried a lot of the crazy records from the past wasn’t just how much a cultural impact those films had or how much a ‘must see’ they were, but the fact that people were simply more keen to attend movie theaters back then. It’s not even about how many days a film is available at streaming - I fully expect both WF and A2 to have bigger windows than we use to have - but that the streaming throws a new twist and wrinkle on how we consume media.  Films like Maverick, No Way Home, Endgame, Avatar are very hard to come by, and I wholeheartedly believe that in normal conditions, No Way Home would have defied both Avatar and Endgame. What NWH and TGM lacked that the other films this year lacked wasn’t a lack of interest, but a lack of repeated viewings and just a more ‘normal’ environment, and when you add how streaming is constantly giving us the shiny new thing, it makes for a very different scenario than we had in pre-pandemic days.
 

Unlike Venom (the user, forgot his tag), I think COVID hesitancy is still very much a thing that is slowly disappearing, not just in China but everywhere. What is happening in China is clearly worse, but because of their own particular conditions of how they dealt with the virus - different types of vaccines, way too strict lockdown rules, etc. - but it’s still a thing that affects every other market. 
 

I think 140m is the absolute ceiling for A2’s OW, and I do expect to get to $1.3-1.5B WW when it’s all is said and done, but what A2 should be setting out to do isn’t breaking records, but reestablishing the franchise as something that interests the GA. I’m very confident that whatever this film ends up making, it’s sequel will do more.

I'd agree more with the repeat viewings angle if TGM didn't just have something like a 5.65~ OW DOM multiplier just this past summer. There were positively many repeat viewings for that movie stateside at least. While I absolutely do not expect A2 to match that multiplier, I do think it'll benefit from repeat viewings especially on premium screens as it has them to itself for 2+ months.

[ZattMurdock]

7 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I'd agree more with the repeat viewings angle if TGM didn't just have something like a 5.65~ OW DOM multiplier just this past summer. There were positively many repeat viewings for that movie stateside at least. While I absolutely do not expect A2 to match that multiplier, I do think it'll benefit from repeat viewings especially on premium screens as it has them to itself for 2+ months.

I think I see TGM as a different beast. Never mind the ‘Murica Fuck Yeah aspect of it, it was a sequel to a beloved film with an actor that while I dislike is very well regarded by the GA. It’s a different game, I see TGM more like NWH (20 years in the making film, with beloved characters and actors) than I see this on A2. It’s unusual for films that get to crazy high numbers to happen back to back, we usually experience a hangover phase after that, if it makes sense. I see NWH and TGM sort like the reverse of what Endgame and BP did between their releases back in 18-19.

 

Full disclosure: I couldn’t possibly see that TGM would become the box office beast that it did, but same could be said about NWH. In normal conditions, I think A1 and AEG would still be kings, but would get some heat from NWH for biggest film of all time. Films like these aren’t the rule, and while Cameron is king and I’m not betting against him, I don’t see this film like I see NWH or TGM. 

Edited December 18, 2022 by Alligator Zatt

[Cooper Legion]

@charlie Jatinder get in here 

[ZattMurdock]

Talking about Charlie, but where the hell is @RthMav Rtheimdall?

[JohnnyGossamer]

5 minutes ago, Alligator Zatt said:

I think I see TGM as a different beast. Never mind the ‘Murica Fuck Yeah aspect of it, it was a sequel to a beloved film with an actor that while I dislike is very well regarded by the GA. It’s a different game, I see TGM more like NWH (20 years in the making film, with beloved characters and actors) than I see this on A2. It’s unusual for films that get to crazy high numbers to happen back to back, we usually experience a hangover phase after that, if it makes sense. I see NWH and TGM sort like the reverse of what Endgame and BP did between their releases back in 18-19.

 

Full disclosure: I couldn’t possibly see that TGM would become the box office beast that it did, but same could be said about NWH. In normal conditions, I think A1 and AEG would still be kings, but would get some heat from NWH for biggest film of all time. Films like these aren’t the rule, and while Cameron is king and I’m not betting against him, I don’t see this film like I see NWH or TGM. 

Yes... Not saying it'll match TGM's 5.65~ multiplier... I don't see that happening. But, I am saying that 600M+ DOM wouldn't surprise me at all for A2. Would be something like a 4.35~ multi off a 135M to 140M OW DOM to get to a 600M+ DOM total. I think that's absolutely doable especially with the holidays and how long it has premium screens to itself. Weekend to weekend holds will be very impressive into February because of that...

[marveldcfox]

It will get a re-release in China down the line. Bank on it.