A2 WEEKEND THREAD | 134.1M DOM OW | Thurs 17m / Fri 36m / Sat 45m / Sun 36m

[TwoMisfits]

33 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Everyone here knows it doesn't need 2B to break even on a 350M budget, even Cameron himself already said It actually needs to be on 8th or 9th biggest movie to be a big success (which means the 3rd or 4th talking was the numbers back on early 2010's). 

 

Media will use this absurd info forever, but at least here stop spreading fake news

 

Well, sources everywhere said $350-$400M production budget for just this movie, so I'd think the higher number is the more right number...especially considering the length of time it took the make the movie...

 

 

[Nero]

18 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Question of the Day

 

The last movie to sell at least 80 million tickets domestically was Avengers: Endgame. Will we ever see another film sell that many tickets, domestically?

How many tickets TFA sold?

[JustLurking]

4 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

If this data was 100% representative of what ends up happening, it would translate to 30-32 million adult ticket sales. 

Sounds good to me, we should just take it for granted and stop the count tbh.

[M37]

22 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Question of the Day

 

The last movie to sell at least 80 million tickets domestically was Avengers: Endgame. Will we ever see another film sell that many tickets, domestically?

Nope. Y’all know I’ve been beating the drum on this, but I’m of the opinion that the theatrical audience has forever shrunk, with the pull of streaming and increasing ATP/PLF share putting a lot of people out of the market. Movies have become a more upscale form of entertainment 

 

To put it another way, in the new market: TGM = Avatar, NWH = Endgame , and it will be 7-10 years before something even grosses on Endgame/TFA level 

[Cap]

[Eric is Quiet]

26 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Question of the Day

 

The last movie to sell at least 80 million tickets domestically was Avengers: Endgame. Will we ever see another film sell that many tickets, domestically?

Nah.

[XXR & Friends]

5 minutes ago, Nero said:

How many tickets TFA sold?

TFA ~92 million.

Endgame ~84 million

NWH ~70 million.

[Dragoncaine]

57 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

Falling below expectations is not doing great. WC no excuse, there are no games atm. AVATAR's success was always going to depend on WoM, so these are decent numbers, but certainly not great. We'll know where its heading in a couple of weeks. 

Nobody's claiming WC is affecting current numbers, but obviously it's going to diminish Sunday's international figures a bit. The extreme COVID upturn in China the past few days has been insane, I truly wonder how this would've performed in China in an open, healthy market

Edited December 16, 2022 by Dragoncaine
Realize now you were joking about the breakeven point! My b

[DAR]

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

Well, after a decade of twitter saying the movie would be a total flop ... now they're just mocking it maybe won't get 2B 

 

It's an improvement! 

 

 

 

 

I’m sure Freezing Cold Takes has been tagged several times already

[cookieleeann]

33 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Question of the Day

 

The last movie to sell at least 80 million tickets domestically was Avengers: Endgame. Will we ever see another film sell that many tickets, domestically?

 

This is a good question. For now I will say No. 

 

This also raises another question.. will anything beat Endgame's per theater average for a wide release? It was able to get the record from Return of the Jedi (which held it for 36 years..very impressive!)

[Reed121]

10 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

TFA ~92 million.

Endgame ~84 million

NWH ~70 million.

What about Jurassic World, The Avengers and Black Panther?

[JustLurking]

5 minutes ago, cookieleeann said:

 

This is a good question. For now I will say No. 

 

This also raises another question.. will anything beat Endgame's per theater average for a wide release? It was able to get the record from Return of the Jedi (which held it for 36 years..very impressive!)

Probably not in the US, but Demon Slayer actually had an 116k PTA in Japan for fri-sun frame (approx 43M from 375 theaters). So there is that I suppose.

[XXR & Friends]

6 minutes ago, Reed121 said:

What about Jurassic World, The Avengers and Black Panther?

All of them are in the 65-70M range. Same with The Dark Knight. TGM is about 58-61M.

[Glogloglo]

2 hours ago, stripe said:

 

Neither Titanic or Avatar openings were considered underwhelming at their time!

 

Titanic faced the opening of a 007 movie and despite this it won the weekend with a superb 28.6M. It was then the 2nd best December opening ever, behind Scream 2 (32.9M), which curiously had opened the weekend before Titanic. After that opening it was pretty clear it would gross way more than 150M+ avoiding flop territory. Legs were beyond amazing, so the OW now looks like it was underwhelming. I remember vividly those days.

Avatar (77M) was only 200k behind the biggest December opening at that time (I am Legend, two years before). It was inmediately seen as a huge win for Cameron, with many pointing to 400M+ DOM run.

I love your revisionist history but as I child I remember reading so many articles about how Titanic was a huge flop. For months prior to release it was DOA. The weak opening was considered flop territory and beyond recovery, what you mentioned is not even close to what happened in reality. 

[ZattMurdock]

1 hour ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Question of the Day

 

The last movie to sell at least 80 million tickets domestically was Avengers: Endgame. Will we ever see another film sell that many tickets, domestically?

Avengers: Secret Wars. Quote me on that.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Just now, Alligator Zatt said:

Avengers: Secret Wars. Quote me on that.

Unless Marvel manages to fix the fractures that Phase 4 caused with general audiences, not a chance in hell.

[XXR & Friends]

5 minutes ago, Alligator Zatt said:

Avengers: Secret Wars. Quote me on that.

 

4 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Unless Marvel manages to fix the fractures that Phase 4 caused with general audiences, not a chance in hell.

Secret Wars is the only contender on the horizon but as BOCS said it’ll all depend on how they build up in the next 3 years. Plus Kang Dynasty has to hit in the same way Infinity War did. FTR though, I’d predict a 25-30% drop in ticket sales for KD/SW vs IW/EG.

[Flopped]

Hopefully this underperformance inspires Cameron to get back down to earth and make something more grounded. Hell, even less ambitious. No need to wait another decade. I'd love another True Lies type movie from him. 

[Flopped]

29 minutes ago, Glogloglo said:

I love your revisionist history but as I child I remember reading so many articles about how Titanic was a huge flop. For months prior to release it was DOA. The weak opening was considered flop territory and beyond recovery, what you mentioned is not even close to what happened in reality. 

 

You are wrong. The negative buzz did exist prior to its release, but once reviews came in and it landed a slew of Golden Globe nods heading into the weekend, the narrative shifted. By the time the numbers came in, the outlook was very positive. 

 

--

 

THIS WEEKEND In one of the most eagerly-awaited battles of the year, James Cameron's Titanic edged out the James Bond picture Tomorrow Never Dies for the number one spot with each attracting enormous crowds. Final studio figures have Paramount's Titanic at $28.6M for the weekend (a full million dollars above the initial estimate) while the MGM/UA Bond movie stands at $25.1M (about a million dollars less than the Sunday estimate). Last weekend's top film Scream 2 was slaughtered by the new competition as it was hacked by 58%, tumbling to $13.9M. Overall, the top ten movies posted the largest non-summer, non-holiday weekend gross of 1997.

 

Titanic's opening is now the second-biggest December opener ever and Tomorrow Never Dies is the third-largest. December's biggest opening weekend remains to be last weekend's $33M debut of Scream 2, which Miramax revised from $39.2M. The tremendous openings of these three films have put an end to the notion that December releases can't open huge since most of the biggest debuts have been in the high teens. The top five December openings before this year have been : Beavis and Butthead Do America ($20.1M), Star Trek VI ($18.2M), Michael ($17.4M), Jerry Maguire ($17.1M), and The Pelican Brief ($16.6M). The record books will need some adjusting once this month is over.

 

Titanic's performance was spectacular considering its length at 194 minutes. Paramount secured the film in 2,674 ports and sailed away with a per-theater average of $10,710 - the best in the top ten. Its opening average was also better than those of other three-hour-plus movies (which went on to win the Best Picture Oscar) like 1995's Braveheart($6,300) and 1990's Dances With Wolves ($9,100). It was by far the largest opening of any movie near the three-hour mark and beat the debut performance of Cameron's last film True Lies, starring Arnold Schwarzenegger, which grossed $25.9M in 2,368 theaters in July 1994. Paramount successfully beat the odds and scored a fantastic opening for a film that should have smooth sailing ahead.

 

Many elements contributed to Titanic's huge launch. There was no doubt that adding to the opening rush to see Titanic was its 8 Golden Globe nominations, best of any film this year, which were announced on the day before its release. Audiences were curious to see what James Cameron did to make the most expensive movie ever made. Hot young stars Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet were big draws for teens and young adults and the romance story made it an event film for the date crowd. Titanic gave Paramount its biggest opening weekend of the year and could enable the studio to surge ahead of Warner Brothers for the third spot in the year's box office market share. Paramount's reported $65M investment for domestic distribution rights looks almost certain to pay off as the upcoming holiday weekend activity, strong word-of-mouth, and award consideration should all contribute to a prolonged domestic run that could see Titanic reach $150M. Fox, which foot the bill for the rest of the $200M production, will handle international distribution where the film is also likely to be a huge blockbuster.

 

For the weekend, my projections were too conservative as Titanic and Tomorrow Never Dies went well beyond my forecasts of $14M and $16M respectively. Interest in both films was greater than I had expected and holiday shopping did not seem to disturb moviegoing as much as predicted. Mouse Hunt opened close to my $7M projection while Scream 2 dropped harder than my 35-40% prediction.

 

[ZattMurdock]

6 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

Secret Wars is the only contender on the horizon but as BOCS said it’ll all depend on how they build up in the next 3 years. Plus Kang Dynasty has to hit in the same way Infinity War did. FTR though, I’d predict a 25-30% drop in ticket sales for KD/SW vs IW/EG.

It won’t be ‘just’ the upcoming build up. It will be Endgame / No Way Home on steroids. We aren’t talking about the MCU build up itself anymore. It will get EVERYONE there from the last almost 30 years. This is coming for not just Avatar and Endgame, but The Force Awakens DOM record as well.