Weekdays Thread (12/19-22) | Avatar: The Way of 14.5 | Mon 16.2, Tue 18.3, Wed 14.3, Thu 14.5| Puss 3.2 OD | Check In For Your Hourly Weather Update

[Eric Prime]

https://deadline.com/2022/12/avatar-the-way-of-water-box-office-monday-1235203056/

 

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Disney/20th Century Studio’s Avatar: The Way of Water is heading to a Monday around $16M which will take its four day total to $150.1M. Nothing to cry about as the Monday for the James Cameron directed movie bests the first Monday of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ($11.1M).

 

If Avatar 2 exceeds $16M today, that will rank as the second best Monday of 2022, besting the Monday July 4th gross of Universal/Illumination’s Minions: The Rise of Gru.

 

 

Currently, Avatar 2‘s Monday is emulating a similar Sunday-to-Monday decline to that of Disney’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story which went down -54% over that time span for a $17.6M Monday. Avatar 2‘s Sunday-to-Monday decline is looking like -56% after making $36.5M yesterday.

 

[Mulder]

Not bad but if that holds, and it's still very early so who knows, that'd be lower than Rogue One's first Monday.

[ZattMurdock]

Oh no

[Cheddar Please]

I agree that it's definitely a bit too early to tell, given that TGM was comping almost equally against Finding Dory for most of the first week, but given that people here were projecting $18m, and I expected it to take the over on RO, this is somewhat concerning for 4x to say the least

[Menor the Destroyer]

Yep, seems about right (comps to weekend are headed for 15.5-17 in the theaters I'm tracking). As I said in the weekend thread looks like length is winning out over PLF skew. 

Edited December 20, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[SpiderByte]

I'm terrible with Mondays: good or bad?

[Cheddar Please]

Just now, SpiderByte said:

I'm terrible with Mondays: good or bad?

Not good

[AJG]

It’s time

 

[Cooper Legion]

 

[Mulder]

Something else I haven't seen mentioned much and I have no data to back this up, but have the amount of individual IMAX locations decreased a lot? I know mine shut down back in 2015 and the screen was moved to the AMC in the same location and I'm curious if that happened elsewhere. Reason I ask is that might hurt legs a lot since I know a lot of Avatar's late legs came from those individual IMAX locations keeping it around.

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

Not good

I'd say it's not good if you're hoping for really insane legs. If you're simply hoping for normal Christmas big opener legs (3.5-4x) then can chalk it up to length hurting weekdays for now and hope for better numbers as more people start to get off and into Christmas. 

[Mojoguy]

3 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

I'm terrible with Mondays: good or bad?

It's less than Rogue one's first Monday  $17.6m.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

I'm terrible with Mondays: good or bad?

Let's put it this way.  The same drop as Rogue One (which is identical calendar) would have been 17.08m, so....

[Mulder]

Just now, Porthos said:

Let's put it this way.  The same drop as Rogue One (which is identical calendar) would have been 17.08m, so....

Unadjusted too lol

[GipJo]

3rd weekend the final judgement it is according to Cameron.

[Cheddar Please]

1 minute ago, Menor Reborn said:

I'd say it's not good if you're hoping for really insane legs. If you're simply hoping for normal Christmas big opener legs (3.5-4x) then can chalk it up to length hurting weekdays for now and hope for better numbers as more people start to get off and into Christmas. 

 

Agreed, I feel like this comment from the r/boxoffice thread sums it up quite nicely

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This is gonna leg like a normal blockbuster and people here are gonna lose their minds.

BTW 34% of the subreddit predicted >20m 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

I'm calling it....

 

Spoiler

Under TROS DOM....

 

Spoiler

Maybe. 

 

Spoiler

I can't commit yet. 

 

 

 

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, GipJo said:

3rd weekend the final judgement it is according to Cameron.

While the second weekend will be depressed because of Christmas Eve, if the drop's 50% or over it's not going to suddenly have a ton of people show up for the third weekend and save it.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, XXR 5x OW or Bust said:

I'm calling it....

 

  Hide contents

Under TROS DOM....

 

  Hide contents

Maybe. 

 

  Hide contents

I can't commit yet. 

 

 

 

@M37 got another one for the slideshow. 

[ZattMurdock]

So.
 

R1 first Mon was $17.6m. Like I’ve been discussing with @JohnnyGossamer on the OW thread, I don’t see how Avatar could have more than a 4x multiplier, and I actually think that A2 will actually behave a lot more closely to R1 than A1. R1 had an $155m OW, with a 3,43 multiplier for a $523m DOM total.

 

It’s still way too early to tell, but if this $16m figure holds this is… not ideal if the film is to break $500m. Like I’ve said on the OW Thread, while passing $500m is a possibility, I don’t think it’s 100% guaranteed, even with A2 having movie theaters for itself until February. If we apply the R1 multiplier to A2, that’s around $460m total. 

 

Like several others have said, this will be very hard to read for a while. I still think that crossing $500m won’t be a walk, so tempering expectations even if this comes a bit higher tomorrow might be in order.