Christmas Weekend Thread | Avatar 95.6m, PiB 20.05m, Babylon 4.85m 4 days

[MovieMan89]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

And that’s fine. What I am saying is it might not be sustainable long term. Temporary boost is nice, but it’s not bad to be cautious. Will be interesting to see how it goes.  

Yeah, I’m far less certain about what it could do post holidays than this week. Even if this week is insane. For now I will go with 37 today, but still hoping something like 40 happens. 

[hw64]

13 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

 

Good analysis. FTR, I think Mon-Mon will be very close to R1's numbers during the same timeframe (+/- 5%).

 

 

Yep, roughly agreed. I've got it at around $430m through next Monday, January 2, so around $130-$135m Tue-Mon compared to Rogue One's $122m. That's contingent on a $30m Christmas Day and a $35m Boxing Day for a circa-$100m 4-day; if it doesn't meet those, then $430m might be a little high.

 

8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I said 475 would be a best case from here, not what I was predicting. And do the math again bc it most certainly does not need a 75m 3rd weekend to get there, you’re drastically undershooting the ceiling of what’s possible on the weekdays. Could do it with a 65m 3rd weekend or so (not predicting that rn). Let’s see todays hold for starters. 

 

Assuming it gets to $300m by the end of this 4-day weekend (through Monday), to hit $475m through next Monday with a $65m third weekend youd need $110m across Tue-Thu this week and next Monday. Pencilling in ~$20m for next Monday, that's $90m Tue-Thu this week, or a $30m average. Do you really think that's achievable?

[Krissykins]

3 hours ago, Alex SciChannel said:

I'm sorry about your dad. I really hope you enjoy the film then.

Thank you. It was very emotional, but in a good way! 

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Except that's not what we were saying about Sunday's number. It was looking at 30+ for pretty much the whole day, in fact it looked like it would end up higher than the 29.5 that ended up coming in. 

 

For today would initially guess 30-33

And I will buy a flat hold when today is finally back to “normal” weather in the country when I see it. 

Edited December 26, 2022 by MovieMan89

[Deep Wang]

2 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

Yes, you forget that people exist outside of 30-50yo males

 

16 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Not suprised you would say that, that's what your programming tells me you should believe.

A 25-40yo male living in imperialist UK or US! Avatar 2 is the anti-thesis of this. It's Yin and Yang

 

Dude, just stop.  

[XXR & Friends]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

And I will buy a flat hold when today is finally back to “normal” weather in the country when I see it. 

 

It's not going to be flat but it's going to be closer to flat than the +25-30% that you're predicting. 

 

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

Dude, just stop.  

andecodtal but the RDA sympathesisers online seem to be american 😂 coinsidence? Who knows. This is but a theory don't wrory about it.

 

I do think there is something legitmate to be said about TGM's pro miltary message and Avatar franchises anti-military message. It's a cool parrelel

Edited December 26, 2022 by IronJimbo

[redfirebird2008]

4 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

 

It's not going to be flat but it's going to be closer to flat than the +25-30% that you're predicting. 

 

 

I have no idea what it's going to do, but I agree with the general idea of being cautious. At least it won't set us up for disappointment, haha

[M37]

42 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

 

When the weekend is 20% higher than your prediction (53.5 IIRC for you) it would be weird to not make some kind of adjustment. There's no way the end point can be the same as you thought it would be. 

I said my range was like $480-$580, and I do think after Sunday you can/should adjust, by dropping a good chuck of the lower bound and maybe nudging the upper bound, so now like $520-$600. But that initial range accounted for a potential over performance this week 

 

Making up the $28M delta by NYD and adding +$30M more in next year - a pretty solid run - still nets ~$560, which is IMO a solid mid-point estimate sans additional data points 

[ThomasNicole]

13-16% jump after an already ~100% jump on SUN on top of an 23% SAT drop is probably the reasonable great expectation 

 

I really don't see why it would go bigger than that. I mean i would love the 36M high end the rivals was seeing to happen just for the 100M milestone on the weekend. 

 

But 33-34M would honestly be an amazing result, no need to set up a disappointment expecting absurd jumps 2 days in a roll.

[Deep Wang]

3 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

andecodtal but the RDA sympathesisers online seem to be american 😂 coinsidence? Who knows. This is but a theory don't wrory about it.

 

I don't sympathize with the RDA, they are awful.  So are the whalers!  I was just far more entertained by TG:M than I was WOTW and no one is more surprised than I am because I think the original Top Gun is bad. 

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

I don't sympathize with the RDA, they are awful.  So are the whalers!  I was just far more entertained by TG:M than I was WOTW and no one is more surprised than I am because I think the original Top Gun is bad. 

That's completely fine to have enjoyed the movie more man, I'm not even judging. It's just funny narrative to me that if you like TGM over A2 you're pro-war. Sometimes I post just to make myself laugh even if I know people will think i'm being crazy. It's a bad habit

Edited December 26, 2022 by IronJimbo

[Mr Roark]

37 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Plus, it was a much better movie. I say that having largely loved TWOW, but honestly not even close. 
 

I liked Mav but Avatar plays in a league of its own, sorry dude.

[MovieMan89]

16 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

Yep, roughly agreed. I've got it at around $430m through next Monday, January 2, so around $130-$135m Tue-Mon compared to Rogue One's $122m. That's contingent on a $30m Christmas Day and a $35m Boxing Day for a circa-$100m 4-day; if it doesn't meet those, then $430m might be a little high.

 

 

Assuming it gets to $300m by the end of this 4-day weekend (through Monday), to hit $475m through next Monday with a $65m third weekend youd need $110m across Tue-Thu this week and next Monday. Pencilling in ~$20m for next Monday, that's $90m Tue-Thu this week, or a $30m average. Do you really think that's achievable?

Basically you give each day about a 5% stronger hold than RO to knock at the door of 475 next Monday off a 65ish 3rd weekend. Again, I am NOT using this as my prediction, just saying I don’t get what so impossible about it? CD hold should not have been possible in that case. 

[ZattMurdock]

I keep forgetting that we are only getting actuals tomorrow

[IronJimbo]

Just now, ZattMurdock said:

I keep forgetting that we are only getting actuals tomorrow

maybe we blessed with monday prediction soon

[Felandria]

Disney Springs report

 

The 7:30 Babylon in Dine In has sold 18 seats

The 8:00 Violent Night in Dine In has sold 35 seats

[Gkalaitza]

39 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

And that’s fine. What I am saying is it might not be sustainable long term. Temporary boost is nice, but it’s not bad to be cautious. Will be interesting to see how it goes.  

Temporary boost was only for SUN tho with some(most?) of the FRI and SAT loss going there. But that also means that money just moved around inside a 3 day weekend that should still be deflated overall to a degree (even small) because of the storm .So the 64m we got and the better drop it represents compared to R1 would be the floor of what A2 would have done without a storm

[Dragoncaine]

32 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

13-16% jump after an already ~100% jump on SUN on top of an 23% SAT drop is probably the reasonable great expectation 

 

I really don't see why it would go bigger than that. I mean i would love the 36M high end the rivals was seeing to happen just for the 100M milestone on the weekend. 

 

But 33-34M would honestly be an amazing result, no need to set up a disappointment expecting absurd jumps 2 days in a roll.

I'm out of reacts, but you have my sword on this one. Feels like $33-34m could be dead on statistically, and as @XXR Eywa Has Heard You! indicated earlier, our guiding spirit should probably be O/U TGM's $33.8m day earlier this year. $35m+ would be a stellar result in my eyes after this weekend's factors you mentioned, while $34m+ would still be a strong (13%-ish) increase.

Edited December 26, 2022 by Dragoncaine

[AnDr3s]

41 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

For today would initially guess 30-33

we are using £ now rather than canadian dollars 🧞‍♀️