Best Picture Predictions: 2023

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

Air has made $20 million domestic in five days: only four of last year's Best Picture nominees had higher grosses (Top Gun: Maverick, Avatar, Elvis, and Everything Everywhere All At Once). But every awards season is different. Can Air stick around as a contender? The other Best Picture nominees it reminds of (Moneyball, The Big Short, Jerry Maguire) were fall/December releases.

 

I can see Air making SAG Ensemble even if it misses in other places. The Globes are back and the movie is very comedic, so it could be competitive there.

 

 

[titanic2187]

On 4/1/2023 at 3:24 AM, SLAM! said:

 

Specifically—if it had a good box office run.

 

 

However, Grand Budapest and Everything Everywhere were more uniquely "indie" than Air is, and they were also up for more of the technical categories, while Air looks to be in contention for acting, screenwriting, and maybe picture (depending on competition). Is that package strong enough to sustain an early release? It was for Get Out (picture, director, actor and screenplay), though that was an even bigger hit with $176M domestic. I don't see Air scoring that big.

 

But if Air can get away with campaigning for a Comedy/Musical slot at the Globes, that will help the film find more visibility come awards season.

After seeing AIR, what a feel good upbeating dramedy but yeah, this is a movie which I can't single out any outstanding craft achievement.  This could be another CODA where the movie have little support in craft categories but still getting in after all because of just how people like it. The likely categories for AIR to contend is Best Original Screenplay, Best supporting actress and Best Picture. The movie will have a good leggy BO run. 

[WrathOfHan]

AIR will fully depend on how the rest of the field shakes out. It could be the contender Amazon wanted Thirteen Lives to be last year. Aside from Past Lives, we don't have anything from the first half of the year yet that has made a big contender splash.

Edited April 10, 2023 by WrathOfHan

[filmlover]

My audience applauded at the end of Air during my showing the other day. I can see it appealing to same crowd that powered Ford v Ferrari (to name another recent Damon title with strong "dad flick" vibes) into the field, especially if Amazon ends up prioritizing it over the new Emerald Fennell movie (which remains a "sight unseen" strong contender for now). 

[PrinceRico]

The color purple test screening are coming out and it looks to be fantastic. 

[kayumanggi]

 

[grim22]

12 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

 

Oscars on Mar10, paving the way for Mario to win the Best Picture.

[filmlover]

Can we please go back to having the ceremony in February? Preferably early February like in 2020? These last few awards seasons have felt so drawn out.

[Eric Quinn]

On 3/13/2023 at 1:14 AM, Cmasterclay said:

I don't say this to be a dick, because both movies from the past two years are fine, but it seems like the pattern for virtually every major category winner post-COVID is "extremely sentimental." It's what is striking a cord, at both the box office and with awards voters. Good luck to a dark, morally complicated movie like Killers Of The Flower Moon or Oppenheimer! 

Bookmark this post and laugh at me when I'm wrong, but the Next Goal Wins trailer reminded me of this post and I think we have our next winner here. Seems like it checks all the boxes of wholesome and emotional fun. It's frankly destined to be the TIFF Audience Award winner, Taika still has a fanbase within the industry. We obviously can't say it's a lock, but I think we can't ignore it as a contender.

[CoolioD1]

if it's as good as the early word suggests i'm kinda feeling it for The Color Purple. that'll be my early call.

[Eric Quinn]

1 hour ago, CoolioD1 said:

if it's as good as the early word suggests i'm kinda feeling it for The Color Purple. that'll be my early call.

Now I want this to happen, because the karma is hilarious.

[filmlover]

CinemaCon buzz should always be taken with a grain of salt but it really does sound like The Color Purple is coming for a nomination total in the double digits (like its cinematic ancestor with its 11 nominations - hopefully this won't go home empty-handed like that did). The reports that it's visually stunning already have me excited.

[Cmasterclay]

The double year is going to make this year fucking loaded tbh. After three years where we struggled to get ten credible nominees this is looking to be the opposite for once. 

 

World of Reel so take with extreme grain of salt but apparently the Killer is amazing. I forget if it was Coolio or Jake who was big on it but yeah. I actually believe Ruimy on that one because he doesn't have some weird right wing reason to love/hate it and lie like usual.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

The Color Purple has had so many test screenings. It tested last Sept. Not really feeling it as a winner and I also feel like it's going to be the least successful of the big WB releases (Barbie, Dune 2, Wonka)

[Joel M]

I have no idea about the Color Purple musical and how good it is on stage. It just sounds super weird to me making this story into a musical. 

[PrinceRico]

23 hours ago, filmlover said:

CinemaCon buzz should always be taken with a grain of salt but it really does sound like The Color Purple is coming for a nomination total in the double digits (like its cinematic ancestor with its 11 nominations - hopefully this won't go home empty-handed like that did). The reports that it's visually stunning already have me excited.

Test screening reactions have all been great and the stage play received raves. It pretty clear this will be big. The cast and crew are great. If the movie is as half as good as the play then the WB have a huge awards player on their hands. Also the techs are getting raves also. Could be looking at 13+ nomination 

Edited April 27, 2023 by PrinceRico

[WrathOfHan]

Pre-Cannes predictions:

 

Picture:

 

1. Oppenheimer

2. Dune: Part Two

3. The Color Purple

4. Poor Things

5. Barbie

6. Killers of the Flower Moon

7. Bob Marley: One Love

8. Past Lives

9. The Holdovers

10. Air

Alt: May December

 

Director:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

5. Greta Gerwig, Barbie

Alt: Celine Song, Past Lives

 

Actor:

 

1. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love

2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

3. Colman Domingo, Rustin

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

5. Matt Damon, Air

Alt: Bradley Cooper, Maestro

 

Actress:

 

1. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple

2. Natalie Portman, May December

3. Emma Stone, Poor Things

4. Greta Lee, Past Lives

5. Annette Bening, Nyad

Alt: Carey Mulligan, Maestro

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Ryan Gosling, Barbie

2. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

3. John Magaro, Past Lives

4. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

5. Christopher Walken, Dune: Part Two

Alt: Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

2. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

3. Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

4. Lashana Lynch, Bob Marley: One Love

5. Julianne Moore, May December

Alt: Viola Davis, Air

 

Original Screenplay:

 

1. Past Lives

2. The Holdovers

3. Air

4. May December

5. Saltburn

Alt: Maestro

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. Poor Things

2. Barbie

3. Oppenheimer

4. Dune: Part Two

5. Killers of the Flower Moon

Alt: Flint Strong

[filmlover]

The title "Bob Marley: One Love" is giving Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody vibes. Won't take it seriously until there's an indication that it'll receive a qualifying release (for now it's a January 2024 title).

 

Was surprised when looking up the plot for it a few weeks ago when it was announced for Cannes that May December is actually a stealth biopic about Mary Kay Letourneau? I can already tell that the online discourse surrounding it is going to be exhausting (if it becomes a thing, that is - if it ends up a no1curr then it won't matter).

[filmlover]

Poor Things just got dated for early September. Basically means the festival run will be basically nonexistent (Venice and Telluride are the only things it could make with this date) but does kind of indicate that Next Goal Wins might be Searchlight's #1 after all following its bizarre path to finally seeing the light of day lol.

[CoolioD1]

13 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Poor Things just got dated for early September. Basically means the festival run will be basically nonexistent (Venice and Telluride are the only things it could make with this date) but does kind of indicate that Next Goal Wins might be Searchlight's #1 after all following its bizarre path to finally seeing the light of day lol.

I think people are down on Next Goal Wins because of all the delays (last film to shoot pre-covid to get released, I think?) but they have all been logical. COVID, Armie Hammer reshoots, taika doing a TV show, a Marvel movie and a bunch of terrible acting roles in between all that. Wouldn't be surprised if the movie is really good. playing to his strengths.