Jump to content

filmlover

Best Picture Predictions: 2023

Recommended Posts

not sure why I insist on getting involved in the oscar race considering the fact that only 1 out of the last 10 bp winners I find to be anything more than ok (12 years)

 

sure its helped me find lots of movies I like and even somewhat love in the process, but I can't remember the last time the BP oscar winner made me happy, there's been some cases of the lesser of 2 evils winning, but that doesn't count

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites



Posted (edited)

I do agree with the notion that smaller movies are something to keep an eye on for potential frontrunners and not the obvious heavy-hitters. They definitely don't seem to go for the big names when it comes actually handing out the awards anymore. At least not when it comes to directors. Actors are usually another story, although they've largely favored veterans for the winners recently (despite the common belief that it's young actresses who get the best parts, it's going to be seven years by the next ceremony since Best Actress was won by someone under 40).

Edited by filmlover
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



For now I'll go with (alphabetically):

 

Dune Part II

The Holdovers

How Do You Live?

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

May December

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things

Strangers

 

Haynes and Haigh getting into Best Picture the same year might be a little bit of a stretch, but whatever it's March. We don't have an Everything Everywhere type contender this spring.

Edited by WrathOfHan
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Given how the Oscar Class of 2020 has fumbled with their follow-up projects so far (Zhao, Zeller), I'm hoping Emerald Fennell can buck the trend and deliver a winner with Saltburn. Or at the very least it would be nice to see Rosamund Pike back in the awards race again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

speaking of 2020 working on a theory that Mank = Fincher's Aviator (trying too hard with the bait) and The Killer = Fincher's The Departed (back to basics crime thriller that people want to see from him, no real Oscar aspirations but maybe if it rules hard enough?)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



The Killer seems to be more of a solo Fassbender show than an ensemble thing (as practically all winners going back decades have been) and like Clay said on the last page, unsentimental violent thrillers without a sociopolitical angle have even less of a shot today than they used to. The Departed itself would 100% lose to Little Miss Sunshine if that Oscar race happened a decade-plus later.

 

And on that note, perhaps Flower Moon being a story and a production that involves Native Americans to the extent it does will give it better odds of winning than The Irishman had.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Killer being dated for a streaming launch in early November leads me to believe Netflix is mostly hoping for big streaming numbers from it and not awards. Maestro will likely be their #1 push that they take to the festivals unless it's not ready (which it should be by the end of summer).

Link to comment
Share on other sites



2 hours ago, Jake Gittes said:

The Killer seems to be more of a solo Fassbender show than an ensemble thing (as practically all winners going back decades have been) and like Clay said on the last page, unsentimental violent thrillers without a sociopolitical angle have even less of a shot today than they used to. The Departed itself would 100% lose to Little Miss Sunshine if that Oscar race happened a decade-plus later.

 

And on that note, perhaps Flower Moon being a story and a production that involves Native Americans to the extent it does will give it better odds of winning than The Irishman had.

It has the political angle but if it follows the book is going to be quite complicated and sad, so it better generate Parasite levels of lovable campaigning. 

 

It'd be a fun exercise to see what would have won between 1990-2010 under the preferential ballot and new Academy. Maybe when I have a free day. Little Miss Sunshine stands out as a definite winner.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said:

It'd be a fun exercise to see what would have won between 1990-2010 under the preferential ballot and new Academy. Maybe when I have a free day. Little Miss Sunshine stands out as a definite winner.

This would be a fun idea for a thread actually!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

It has the political angle but if it follows the book is going to be quite complicated and sad, so it better generate Parasite levels of lovable campaigning. 

 

It'd be a fun exercise to see what would have won between 1990-2010 under the preferential ballot and new Academy. Maybe when I have a free day. Little Miss Sunshine stands out as a definite winner.

I'd guess the following wins would change:

 

2005: Brokeback Mountain>Crash

2001: Fellowship of the Ring>A Beautiful Mind

1995: Apollo 13>Braveheart

1990: Goodfellas>Dances with Wolves

Link to comment
Share on other sites



49 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I'd guess the following wins would change:

 

2005: Brokeback Mountain>Crash

2001: Fellowship of the Ring>A Beautiful Mind

1995: Apollo 13>Braveheart

1990: Goodfellas>Dances with Wolves

 

I think only 2005 is likely in your list. Braveheart and A Beautiful Mind still win their years easily. Both had a lot of support across categories and won Best Director as well. Apollo 13 started losing steam once that season got underway and FOTR was always looked upon as a technical contender with an outside shot for McKellen than a Best Picture favorite.

 

Dances with Wolves also likely still pulls it out. I can't comment from memory because I was not old enough to know what an Oscars was at the time but just looking at the stats makes me really doubt anything other than Dances with Wolves pulling it out. It had 12 nominations and had 3 acting noms as well. Won director over Scorsese as well. In retrospect of course Goodfellas wins now, but in that year, I strongly doubt it.

 

Saving Private Ryan pulling out the win on a preferential ballot over Shakespeare in Love is definitely possible though. Would be harder to pull off the campaigning that Weinstein did in the preferential era.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



It’s definitely more a new Academy thing than a preferential ballot thing. The first few years of the preferential ballot are business as usual it isn’t until Moonlight won that there was a shift. I think the winners would generally be the same. Statistically some of the wins suggested above don’t make sense because generally you still need to win screenplay or directing to win Picture. Goodfellas wouldn’t get it with just a supporting actor win. Fellowship wouldn’t get it with just technical wins. Probably The Pianist beats Chicago I think.
 

 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites





9 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

It has the political angle but if it follows the book is going to be quite complicated and sad, so it better generate Parasite levels of lovable campaigning. 

 

All I know is if a cuddly comedy-drama about a struggling family turns up in release at any point this year we need to shoot it on sight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites



7 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

It’s definitely more a new Academy thing than a preferential ballot thing. The first few years of the preferential ballot are business as usual it isn’t until Moonlight won that there was a shift. I think the winners would generally be the same. Statistically some of the wins suggested above don’t make sense because generally you still need to win screenplay or directing to win Picture. Goodfellas wouldn’t get it with just a supporting actor win. Fellowship wouldn’t get it with just technical wins. Probably The Pianist beats Chicago I think.
 

 

I agree, it's two different questions. I think only a couple winners from that era change with a preferential ballot but if you were to impose the new Academy AND the preferential ballot both then I think about half of them change. Braveheart for example, that's toast. I think the lovable cast of Fargo and fun tone probably takes it to a win over English Patient. Pianist beats Chicago preferential wise because like 1/3rd of people will not vote for musicals, but the new Academy also wouldn't vote for Polanski so that's a toughie. I could see Sideways maybe beating Million Dollar Baby. 2007 would be veryyyy interesting and so would 1992 - IMO No Country and Unforgiven are two of their best winners ever but they're also definitely ice-cold white dude thrillers so idk if they could win nowadays. Slumdog Millionaire is the most obvious "win in any era" choice - it would win by even more with today's Academy and preferential ballot, tbh.

Edited by Cmasterclay
Link to comment
Share on other sites



13 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

I'd guess the following wins would change:

 

2005: Brokeback Mountain>Crash

2001: Fellowship of the Ring>A Beautiful Mind

1995: Apollo 13>Braveheart

1990: Goodfellas>Dances with Wolves

Unlikely for LOTR1, Apollo 13 and Goodfellas to overtake the current winner even under preferential ballot since these three movies aren't wining both or either directing or screenplay. It is almost impossible to win without directing or screenplay. I think only Chicago and Gladiator achieved this feat in recent memory. 

 

There is some likely changes in winner if preferential ballot was used during their time. I honestly think Titanic will be one of them. LA confidential and GH won supporting actor/actress + screenplay. That is pretty much the standard combo as Best picture winner in recent years (12 years a slave, Moonlight, GB, Coda)

 

Overall I favour preferential ranking system and hope Academy can expand the mechanism to every other categories. 

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites



In no order whatsoever

 

Poor Things

Killers of the Flower Moon

The Holdovers

Oppenheimer

Blitz

Dune 2

Maestro

Past Lives

Barbie

The Color Purple or an international feature but I honestly have no idea which are likely/plausible

 

is my guess.

Edited by JustLurking
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.