interiorgatordecorator Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 not sure why I insist on getting involved in the oscar race considering the fact that only 1 out of the last 10 bp winners I find to be anything more than ok (12 years) sure its helped me find lots of movies I like and even somewhat love in the process, but I can't remember the last time the BP oscar winner made me happy, there's been some cases of the lesser of 2 evils winning, but that doesn't count Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted March 16, 2023 Author Share Posted March 16, 2023 (edited) I do agree with the notion that smaller movies are something to keep an eye on for potential frontrunners and not the obvious heavy-hitters. They definitely don't seem to go for the big names when it comes actually handing out the awards anymore. At least not when it comes to directors. Actors are usually another story, although they've largely favored veterans for the winners recently (despite the common belief that it's young actresses who get the best parts, it's going to be seven years by the next ceremony since Best Actress was won by someone under 40). Edited March 16, 2023 by filmlover 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted March 18, 2023 Author Share Posted March 18, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted March 18, 2023 Share Posted March 18, 2023 (edited) For now I'll go with (alphabetically): Dune Part II The Holdovers How Do You Live? Killers of the Flower Moon Maestro May December Oppenheimer Past Lives Poor Things Strangers Haynes and Haigh getting into Best Picture the same year might be a little bit of a stretch, but whatever it's March. We don't have an Everything Everywhere type contender this spring. Edited March 18, 2023 by WrathOfHan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted March 18, 2023 Share Posted March 18, 2023 Maestro is the movie giving me the strongest "Oscar flop everyone predicts at the start of the year" vibes right now. always one and that seems to be the likeliest candidate to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted March 18, 2023 Author Share Posted March 18, 2023 Given how the Oscar Class of 2020 has fumbled with their follow-up projects so far (Zhao, Zeller), I'm hoping Emerald Fennell can buck the trend and deliver a winner with Saltburn. Or at the very least it would be nice to see Rosamund Pike back in the awards race again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted March 18, 2023 Share Posted March 18, 2023 speaking of 2020 working on a theory that Mank = Fincher's Aviator (trying too hard with the bait) and The Killer = Fincher's The Departed (back to basics crime thriller that people want to see from him, no real Oscar aspirations but maybe if it rules hard enough?) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted March 18, 2023 Share Posted March 18, 2023 The Killer seems to be more of a solo Fassbender show than an ensemble thing (as practically all winners going back decades have been) and like Clay said on the last page, unsentimental violent thrillers without a sociopolitical angle have even less of a shot today than they used to. The Departed itself would 100% lose to Little Miss Sunshine if that Oscar race happened a decade-plus later. And on that note, perhaps Flower Moon being a story and a production that involves Native Americans to the extent it does will give it better odds of winning than The Irishman had. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted March 19, 2023 Author Share Posted March 19, 2023 The Killer being dated for a streaming launch in early November leads me to believe Netflix is mostly hoping for big streaming numbers from it and not awards. Maestro will likely be their #1 push that they take to the festivals unless it's not ready (which it should be by the end of summer). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 2 hours ago, Jake Gittes said: The Killer seems to be more of a solo Fassbender show than an ensemble thing (as practically all winners going back decades have been) and like Clay said on the last page, unsentimental violent thrillers without a sociopolitical angle have even less of a shot today than they used to. The Departed itself would 100% lose to Little Miss Sunshine if that Oscar race happened a decade-plus later. And on that note, perhaps Flower Moon being a story and a production that involves Native Americans to the extent it does will give it better odds of winning than The Irishman had. It has the political angle but if it follows the book is going to be quite complicated and sad, so it better generate Parasite levels of lovable campaigning. It'd be a fun exercise to see what would have won between 1990-2010 under the preferential ballot and new Academy. Maybe when I have a free day. Little Miss Sunshine stands out as a definite winner. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 BCoop's thirsty as fuck for an Oscar so I doubt Maestro will flop, but I could see something else being Netflix's main push depending what releases/where passion lies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted March 19, 2023 Author Share Posted March 19, 2023 1 hour ago, Cmasterclay said: It'd be a fun exercise to see what would have won between 1990-2010 under the preferential ballot and new Academy. Maybe when I have a free day. Little Miss Sunshine stands out as a definite winner. This would be a fun idea for a thread actually! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 2 hours ago, Cmasterclay said: It has the political angle but if it follows the book is going to be quite complicated and sad, so it better generate Parasite levels of lovable campaigning. It'd be a fun exercise to see what would have won between 1990-2010 under the preferential ballot and new Academy. Maybe when I have a free day. Little Miss Sunshine stands out as a definite winner. I'd guess the following wins would change: 2005: Brokeback Mountain>Crash 2001: Fellowship of the Ring>A Beautiful Mind 1995: Apollo 13>Braveheart 1990: Goodfellas>Dances with Wolves Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grim22 Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 49 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: I'd guess the following wins would change: 2005: Brokeback Mountain>Crash 2001: Fellowship of the Ring>A Beautiful Mind 1995: Apollo 13>Braveheart 1990: Goodfellas>Dances with Wolves I think only 2005 is likely in your list. Braveheart and A Beautiful Mind still win their years easily. Both had a lot of support across categories and won Best Director as well. Apollo 13 started losing steam once that season got underway and FOTR was always looked upon as a technical contender with an outside shot for McKellen than a Best Picture favorite. Dances with Wolves also likely still pulls it out. I can't comment from memory because I was not old enough to know what an Oscars was at the time but just looking at the stats makes me really doubt anything other than Dances with Wolves pulling it out. It had 12 nominations and had 3 acting noms as well. Won director over Scorsese as well. In retrospect of course Goodfellas wins now, but in that year, I strongly doubt it. Saving Private Ryan pulling out the win on a preferential ballot over Shakespeare in Love is definitely possible though. Would be harder to pull off the campaigning that Weinstein did in the preferential era. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 It’s definitely more a new Academy thing than a preferential ballot thing. The first few years of the preferential ballot are business as usual it isn’t until Moonlight won that there was a shift. I think the winners would generally be the same. Statistically some of the wins suggested above don’t make sense because generally you still need to win screenplay or directing to win Picture. Goodfellas wouldn’t get it with just a supporting actor win. Fellowship wouldn’t get it with just technical wins. Probably The Pianist beats Chicago I think. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 And maybe Traffic beats Gladiator since it won every other award it was nominated for, but that's about it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Gittes Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 9 hours ago, Cmasterclay said: It has the political angle but if it follows the book is going to be quite complicated and sad, so it better generate Parasite levels of lovable campaigning. All I know is if a cuddly comedy-drama about a struggling family turns up in release at any point this year we need to shoot it on sight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 (edited) 7 hours ago, CoolioD1 said: It’s definitely more a new Academy thing than a preferential ballot thing. The first few years of the preferential ballot are business as usual it isn’t until Moonlight won that there was a shift. I think the winners would generally be the same. Statistically some of the wins suggested above don’t make sense because generally you still need to win screenplay or directing to win Picture. Goodfellas wouldn’t get it with just a supporting actor win. Fellowship wouldn’t get it with just technical wins. Probably The Pianist beats Chicago I think. I agree, it's two different questions. I think only a couple winners from that era change with a preferential ballot but if you were to impose the new Academy AND the preferential ballot both then I think about half of them change. Braveheart for example, that's toast. I think the lovable cast of Fargo and fun tone probably takes it to a win over English Patient. Pianist beats Chicago preferential wise because like 1/3rd of people will not vote for musicals, but the new Academy also wouldn't vote for Polanski so that's a toughie. I could see Sideways maybe beating Million Dollar Baby. 2007 would be veryyyy interesting and so would 1992 - IMO No Country and Unforgiven are two of their best winners ever but they're also definitely ice-cold white dude thrillers so idk if they could win nowadays. Slumdog Millionaire is the most obvious "win in any era" choice - it would win by even more with today's Academy and preferential ballot, tbh. Edited March 19, 2023 by Cmasterclay Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 13 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: I'd guess the following wins would change: 2005: Brokeback Mountain>Crash 2001: Fellowship of the Ring>A Beautiful Mind 1995: Apollo 13>Braveheart 1990: Goodfellas>Dances with Wolves Unlikely for LOTR1, Apollo 13 and Goodfellas to overtake the current winner even under preferential ballot since these three movies aren't wining both or either directing or screenplay. It is almost impossible to win without directing or screenplay. I think only Chicago and Gladiator achieved this feat in recent memory. There is some likely changes in winner if preferential ballot was used during their time. I honestly think Titanic will be one of them. LA confidential and GH won supporting actor/actress + screenplay. That is pretty much the standard combo as Best picture winner in recent years (12 years a slave, Moonlight, GB, Coda) Overall I favour preferential ranking system and hope Academy can expand the mechanism to every other categories. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustLurking Posted March 20, 2023 Share Posted March 20, 2023 (edited) In no order whatsoever Poor Things Killers of the Flower Moon The Holdovers Oppenheimer Blitz Dune 2 Maestro Past Lives Barbie The Color Purple or an international feature but I honestly have no idea which are likely/plausible is my guess. Edited March 20, 2023 by JustLurking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
