M3GAN W33K3ND THR3AD | ACTUALS - DADDY CAM3RON'S MAGNUM OPUS 45.8M | DOCUM3NTARY ABOUT KILL3R DOLL 30.4M | ORANG3 PANTH3R 13.5M

[M37]

2 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

The chart where movies that are bigger before wk4 fall harder and ones that were smaller hold better? Indeed, data don’t lie 😛 

There are plenty of lower grossing titles that completely fell off after Christmas/NY, faster than the big ones that were able to retain their screens longer. To pluck one example, PP3 in that same year - which grossed $13M on that week vs Showman's $19 - went on to have a about a 1.2x, below TLJs 1.27x.  I'd bet the average for sub-$25Ms is likely below 1.5x. Showman was 4.66x

 

[Krissykins]

The Menu multiplier: 4.18x 

Violent Night multiplier: 3.65x

 

Excellent WOM runs for both. 

Edited January 7, 2023 by Krissykins

[hw64]

33 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

I do agree that it's easier to hold better on a higher volume as long as you aren't straight up going into blockbuster-tier where you are burning too much demand too quick. If you go too low you tend to just not have enough people spreading WOM for it to matter and/or are too vulnerable to losing screens and theaters for it to matter often times.

 

Like, say, a 30M opener vs a 5M opener rather than 150 vs 30.

 

That may (or may not) be true, but the claim was made in the context of comparing Avatar and The Greatest Showman. Assuming Showman had an Avatar-ish ATP and there's no need to adjust up/down Avatar's opening, that's $77m compared to $9m or probably $12m+ with a regular Friday opening, so Avatar had around 6.5 to 8.5x the level of starting ticket demand.

 

I don't think it's anywhere near true at those levels.

Edited January 7, 2023 by hw64

[Cooper Legion]

21 minutes ago, M37 said:

There are plenty of lower grossing titles that completely fell off after Christmas/NY, faster than the big ones that were able to retain their screens longer. To pluck one example, PP3 in that same year - which grossed $13M on that week vs Showman's $19 - went on to have a about a 1.2x, below TLJs 1.27x.  I'd bet the average for sub-$25Ms is likely below 1.5x. Showman was 4.66x

 

yeah, there are plenty of lower grossing titles that leg poorly. There are plenty of lower grossing titles that leg alright. And there are a few lower grossing titles that leg extremely well (6x+ say).  
 

There are also plenty of higher grossing titles that leg poorly. Plenty of higher grossing titles that leg alright. But that corner of “high opener, super good legs” is a fucking ghost town — because it’s harder/borderline impossible to retain excellently when your volume is high.

 

You said what you said, and it’s time to reconsider and back down — because for almost any specific numerical claim it can be reasonably translated to, it’s not going to shake out without cherry picking 😘

Edited January 7, 2023 by Legion in Boots

[Eric Prime]

 

[Brainbug]

I kind of expect a Sequel announcement for Megan as soon as tomorrow 😄

[wildphantom]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

Those 4 films are so last year, just see M3gan four times instead. 
 

 

Only kidding. I’m in the UK too and it’s hard to muster up any sort of excitement for them. I think out of those 4 the only one I’ll go to see is Tar. 

M3gan I’ll be there for. 
 

I’m hyped beyond anything for Spielberg’s Fabelmans. The man is a real hero to me, so to see a film largely about how he discovered his craft is something I’ve always wanted to see. 
 

Tar and Babylon I’m still very much looking forward to seeing, and have only heard great thinks about Orange Panther. 
 

We should have had all of these months ago, but you know as well as I that January and February are always good months for films in the U.K. whilst our cousins are starved of good new ones. Still, makes it all the more galling that they’ve not only had all of these but they can also watch them on PVOD whilst we wait….

 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

5 minutes ago, 3RIC said:

 

We don't get it until next week here, which was ironically the original US release as well. I'll be sure to give it a watch then though!

[wildphantom]

3 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

I kind of expect a Sequel announcement for Megan as soon as tomorrow 😄

Megan: Dominion. You’d buy a ticket for that! 😉

 

Incidentally, I started watching the extended cut of JWD last night. Of the new footage I saw in the first half hour, all of it should have stayed in. Especially the opening. 

[Alex SciChannel]

12 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

yeah, there are plenty of lower grossing titles that leg poorly. There are plenty of lower grossing titles that leg alright. And there are a few lower grossing titles that leg extremely well (6x+ say).  
 

There are also plenty of higher grossing titles that leg poorly. Plenty of higher grossing titles that leg alright. But that corner of “high opener, super good legs” is a fucking ghost town — because it’s harder/borderline impossible to retain excellently when your volume is high.

 

You said what you said, and it’s time to reconsider and back down — because for almost any specific numerical claim it can be reasonably translated to, it’s not going to shake out without cherry picking 😘

This.

 

I am not holding my breath for above 700M A2 but no matter where this film end up its gonna be good no matter what.

Edited January 7, 2023 by Alex SciChannel

[Brainbug]

Just now, wildphantom said:

Megan: Dominion. You’d buy a ticket for that! 😉

 

Incidentally, I started watching the extended cut of JWD last night. Of the new footage I saw in the first half hour, all of it should have stayed in. Especially the opening. 

 

Out of likes but yes.

 

I know im posting right now about Dominion, but i mean this unironically: The extended cut is much better than the theatrical one. It doesnt make the movie good objectively, but it dramatically helps the pacing and makes some scenes more coherent.

 

I struggle for example to understand why they would cut out the opening scene that sets up the T Rex vs Giga Fight or why they would cut out Chris Pratts first interaction with the illegal dino hunters. It just doesnt make sense!

[Nikostar]

What should be the final total for BPWK. These late legs are nice.

[Flip]

If the 4th weekend ends up under $40M and under Black Panther 4th weekend it probably won’t) then $700M would be a much harder goal. It would be already $50M behind with no sign that it could make up that large a difference 

[Gkalaitza]

700m is a long shot . Maybe we'll get x5 legs instead which would be a great milestone. Needs 670m so its a somewhat more achievable

[Menor the Destroyer]

24 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Out of likes but yes.

 

I know im posting right now about Dominion, but i mean this unironically: The extended cut is much better than the theatrical one. It doesnt make the movie good objectively, but it dramatically helps the pacing and makes some scenes more coherent.

 

I struggle for example to understand why they would cut out the opening scene that sets up the T Rex vs Giga Fight or why they would cut out Chris Pratts first interaction with the illegal dino hunters. It just doesnt make sense!

I agree that the extended cut is better. I don't think it needs to make the movie good though, because the movie is already good.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

God I hope A2 finishes the day the way it started it. 

 

[filmlover]

Honestly the overall strength of this weekend makes me confident that we're in for a really strong year overall. The rest of January is obviously going to be a wasteland, but starting the first weekend of February with Knock at the Cabin all the way through Evil Dead Rise near the end of April we should be set for openers of at least low-to-mid-teens (Universal's success with Violent Night and M3GAN seems like a sign they'll also do a good job getting audiences on board for similar oddities like Cocaine Bear and Renfield) before we head into what's arguably the busiest and "normal" looking summer with a heavy hitter every week since 2019.

[wildphantom]

35 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Out of likes but yes.

 

I know im posting right now about Dominion, but i mean this unironically: The extended cut is much better than the theatrical one. It doesnt make the movie good objectively, but it dramatically helps the pacing and makes some scenes more coherent.

 

I struggle for example to understand why they would cut out the opening scene that sets up the T Rex vs Giga Fight or why they would cut out Chris Pratts first interaction with the illegal dino hunters. It just doesnt make sense!

it doesn’t. Agree 100%. Let alone cutting out Blue attacking those poachers when she takes the youngling hunting. I bemoaned the lack of threat Blue had in what little she’s in the movie, but that one moment means the next scene you see her in plays completely differently.  
 

As for the opening, I mean yeah. I know it was the teaser trailer, but it’s so good. Starts the film off on a mega budget note, rather than that awful news reel, which I still don’t like, but is better served where it is in the extended version. 

The way the film opens and then ends, perfect bookends - but universal stepped in and really made it unfair on Trevorrow.  I’ve heard him speak about it and the decisions forced on him, and it really doesn’t make any sense. 

Edited January 7, 2023 by wildphantom

[interiorgatordecorator]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Honestly the overall strength of this weekend makes me confident that we're in for a really strong year overall. The rest of January is obviously going to be a wasteland, but starting the first weekend of February with Knock at the Cabin all the way through Evil Dead Rise near the end of April we should be set for openers of at least low-to-mid-teens (Universal's success with Violent Night and M3GAN seems like a sign they'll also do a good job getting audiences on board for similar oddities like Cocaine Bear and Renfield) before we head into what's arguably the busiest and "normal" looking summer with a heavy hitter every week since 2019.

 

bit worried about the fact that they might be way too many blockbusters, could see them hurting each other which could end up resulting in many good runs, but no great ones

Edited January 7, 2023 by interiorgatordecorator

[wildphantom]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Honestly the overall strength of this weekend makes me confident that we're in for a really strong year overall. The rest of January is obviously going to be a wasteland, but starting the first weekend of February with Knock at the Cabin all the way through Evil Dead Rise near the end of April we should be set for openers of at least low-to-mid-teens (Universal's success with Violent Night and M3GAN seems like a sign they'll also do a good job getting audiences on board for similar oddities like Cocaine Bear and Renfield) before we head into what's arguably the busiest and "normal" looking summer with a heavy hitter every week since 2019.

Cocaine Bear is going to surprise. I’ve heard lots of good stuff about that Renfield trailer too. Need to check it out.