MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M

[John Marston]

director claiming cinemas are dead because his boring film flopped 

[Legion Again]

I mean there was like 30M of openers this wknd with Otto party and plane.

[Deep Wang]

6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Not much different than M3gan last weekend. Are we claiming that was a real direct competitor to A2? Highly beg to differ. 

 

What in the world? I was talking about your phrasing.  You said "sub 35 ow," which is like an oddly specific number slightly above what it actually made is a weird way to talk about how it performed.  

 

I never said it's a 'real direct competitor' either, but I'm of the opinion that competition is still competition.  New movies take screens, better times, and bigger auditoriums away from the movies that have been out for a month.  

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

What in the world? I was talking about your phrasing.  You said "sub 35 ow," which is like an oddly specific number slightly above what it actually made is a weird way to talk about how it performed.  

 

I never said it's a 'real direct competitor' either, but I'm of the opinion that competition is still competition.  New movies take screens, better times, and bigger auditoriums away from the movies that have been out for a month.  

Was merely emphasizing it’s odd to call anything opening below that number notable competition, even if it was more direct of a competitor (and I wasn’t responding to you about that, you quoted me). We’re prob talking a matter of a few mil at most something opening in that range could have possibly taken away from a movie in an entirely different genre, and bc of the screens primarily like you mentioned. 

Edited January 16, 2023 by MovieMan89

[M37]

6 hours ago, todos said:

It’s fun to watch charts, base rates, comps and the past be wrong every weekend lol

 

It’s also hilarious how this resets at the start of each week and still remain wrong  😆 

 

Pretty sure I gave a $30-$32 3-day range at the start of last week (you’re welcome to go look it up). I’ve also said for a while now that this 10 day stretch, from last weekend through Sun, was going to go a long way to setting the baseline and trajectory for what should be a fairly predictable run from this point, having our first mostly normal days 

 

So once again, $20.5 $24M (after further review) or so for next weekend 

Edited January 17, 2023 by M37

[Jiffy]

Avatwo is not holding better next weekend.

 

If it's under 35% drop call it a win.

[Legion Again]

Puss 13.54 or bust for next weekend 

[Jiffy]

I think A2 probably needed 20% drop this weekend to keep TGM hope alive, but maybe it can eke out $700m still (I am not betting on it, though, without a re-release).

[DAJK]

I'm personally just hoping TGM keeps the domestic crown because I thought it was a better film 🤷‍♂️ That's not a knock against A2, which I also enjoyed very much. I just also really like the idea of a movie that no one saw coming being the year's top grosser as opposed to the movie that pretty much everyone predicted would come out on top.

 

Also put me on the PiB 200M train. I wouldn't put money on it happening, but boy oh boy would I love to see it.

[Flip]

Can’t wait until the Tuesday estimate is like 2m and everyone goes back to doomposting. It’s like a roller coaster 

[Sophia Jane]

1 minute ago, Flip said:

Can’t wait until the Tuesday estimate is like 2m and everyone goes back to doomposting. It’s like a roller coaster 

well like I said DOM can't even match China now

[ThomasNicole]

NWH competition on MLK weekend: 

Scream - 33.8M 

NWH - 24.6M 

Sing - 10.3M 

The 355 - 2.7M 

 

A2 competition on MLK weekend: 

Avatar - 40.6M 

M3GAN - 21.8M 

PIB - 19.0M 

A Man Called Otto - 15.3M 

Plane - 12.0M 

 

I think my point is already obvious, but i mean, A2 clearly had way more competition than NWH. Yeah i know about the demos but in the bigger picture Avatar is the one facing another four +10M grossers (two of them actually 20M grossers)

Edited January 16, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[Porthos]

5 hours ago, ando said:

So about all that football that was supposed to affect the daily jumps/holds. Really doesn't seem like that happened at all. 

 

Gosh, it's like my jokes about freaking out over minor fluctuation in Early Friday Projections were made for a reason or sumthin'!!!

 

(while I thought it might be a factor, I did think the concerns over NFL Wild Card weekend were a bit overblown — this wasn't Super Bowl Weekend, after all)

[stuart360]

I think Top Gun will keep its domestic crown, although will be upwards of a billion behind A2 worldwide.

 

I just want 700mil, and i still think it can eek its way there.

 

It should be at 600mil after next weekend, and next weekend i would think would be in the 21-22mil range. So it would need another 100mil off a 21-22mil weekend.

Thats def tough, but its going to go over 5x its OW, so maybe it can do 5x off next weekends 21-22mil.

Edited January 16, 2023 by stuart360

[M37]

39 minutes ago, Flip said:

Can’t wait until the Tuesday estimate is like 2m and everyone goes back to doomposting. It’s like a roller coaster 

Tuesday should be $3-$3.3M. The rollercoaster is basically over, just some minor hills, speed ups/slow downs from here 

[interiorgatordecorator]

14 minutes ago, M37 said:

The rollercoaster is basically over

 

doubting james cameron

 

give me a 1.5 million tuesday on the way to a 20 million weekened 

Edited January 16, 2023 by interiorgatordecorator

[YM!]

1 hour ago, DAJK said:

Also put me on the PiB 200M train. I wouldn't put money on it happening, but boy oh boy would I love to see it.

Hopefully my crackpot theories a week ago work out.

[Flip]

Puss in Boots is coming for Sonic

[Sophia Jane]

Tuesday in DOM will around 2m,We will see doomers back again,is just like the history circle

[Brainbug]

Would be equally funny at this point if no one here starts to doompost in the coming days no matter the numbers.