February 3rd to 5th, 2023 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Cabin 14.2, Brady 12.5, Avatar 10.8, Puss 7.95, BTS 6.3

[Pinacolada]

Speaking of MGMs shitty marketing these days, that new Jake Gyllenhaal/Guy Ritchie war movie is gonna bomb like crazy I think. Apparently $55m budget. Trailer dropped to complete silence 

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Pinacolada said:

Speaking of MGMs shitty marketing these days, that new Jake Gyllenhaal/Guy Ritchie war movie is gonna bomb like crazy I think. Apparently $55m budget. Trailer dropped to complete silence 

Zach Braff's A Good Person, anyone?  

 

The Ben Affleck Nike movie is gonna get a bigger push at this point

Edited February 5, 2023 by WrathOfHan

[upriser7]

Why on earth is the studio projecting 43% drop for Avatar2 on Sunday? It dropped 44% on last Sunday with NFL Championship games...I'd expect Sunday drop to be around 33-35%.. weekend will be around 11.25M (-29% from last weekend )

[filmlover]

11 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

Speaking of MGMs shitty marketing these days, that new Jake Gyllenhaal/Guy Ritchie war movie is gonna bomb like crazy I think. Apparently $55m budget. Trailer dropped to complete silence 

Jake about to beg Marvel for a Mysterio prequel with all the failed projects he's appearing in these days.

[Cmasterclay]

I've heard the Ben Affleck Nike movie is great - rare thing that I can confirm first-hand!

 

It's funny folks say Creed II had more hype than III - in my area, it is the opposite. I think Creed II had more hype among Rocky fans, and Creed III has more hype among black audiences (which doesn't always show on tracking!) I think that separating from Stallone has both benefits and drawbacks. 

[kayumanggi]

6 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Not entirely sure 500 is feasible for Puss. It's got about 35M DOM left in the tank (add that to the current WW total, that gets you to just over 400). Not sure it has 100M left overseas. But I do think 450WW is a given, which is still a huge success.

 

DOMESTIC

$151.3M after a $7.95M weekend

 

OVERSEAS

$217.3M after a $17.1M weekend

 

*UK's run has just started.

*Opens in Japan on March 17th.

*PUSS IN BOOTS made $13.76M in Japan back in 2012.

 

I think $175M - $185M is where it ends up domestically and maybe $275M - $285M internationally for a worldwide total of $450M - $470M. I hope late legs take it to $500M, though. Either way, it's a big success.

 

[M37]

23 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I think it's been discussed enough that Knock's numbers are pretty good for what it was. It's a testament to M. Night's name that a movie with this plotline (home invaders hold a gay couple and their young child captive to make the choice of which family member to off or else the world will end) didn't pull low numbers similar to, say, 2009's The Box (another major studio release with a similarly sadistic premise).

And I think way too much is being made of having a gay couple and the apocalypse "downer" angle to explain away the underwhelming performance; it just didn't connect with enough people to get bigger numbers

 

It was a generic home invasion thriller, and that it was by M Night is probably why it did $14M instead of Don't Breathe 2's $11M or Barbarian's $10M ... but still a pretty meh result from someone who previously took formulaic/generic horror stories and with his touch with produced $26M for Visit and $40M for Split

 

But I honestly don't care enough to belabor the point, so we can just agree to disagree here

[JimmyB]

1 hour ago, Issac Newton said:

Better news? The fifth weekend of February for all films grossed $81M. That’s +103% ahead of the same frame in 2019 ($73.4M), even with 2020 ($80.7M) and +36% from last year ($59.7M).

Does Deadline mean the fifth weekend of the year? Also, why would Box Office Pro's weekend wrap up have the weekend's box office at $68.8M vs Deadline's $81M. 

[TwoMisfits]

13 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I've heard the Ben Affleck Nike movie is great - rare thing that I can confirm first-hand!

 

It's funny folks say Creed II had more hype than III - in my area, it is the opposite. I think Creed II had more hype among Rocky fans, and Creed III has more hype among black audiences (which doesn't always show on tracking!) I think that separating from Stallone has both benefits and drawbacks. 

 

I think that's exactly right...but if you lose a whole demo, even if you gain stronger in another one...you end up only being able to go so high.

 

I think tracking is reflecting this movie in audience breakdown in advance.  One demo is even more motivated, while the other is moving to the "give it a pass in a crowded March" category...

 

Creed 1 and 2 succeeded by linking up Rocky/Creed demos...Creed 3 will try to live on its own demo...(for example, Creed 2's top 2 demos were both 25+ - men, then women)...

Edited February 5, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[titanic2187]

I just realise A24 has at least one nominee in all 3 best movie category at the Oscar. EEAAO in BP, Close in Best International film and Marcel shell in Best Animated feature.

 

And the Whale grossing more than or matching Best Picture frontrunner like Banshees and Fabelmans is another testaments about A24 is rising up as the platform release champion. 

 

And the rerun of EEAAO has been amazing. The spring or summer Oscar best picture nominee like Grand Budapest, Mad Max, Dunkirk or Get Out often try to milk some money in theater after Oscar announcement but their box office from rerun is often so miniscule or straight out negligible. Yet, EEAAO managed to pull off a $2m gross. An unheard rerun gross since the onset of streaming era. 

[SchumacherFTW]

37 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Not entirely sure 500 is feasible for Puss. It's got about 35M DOM left in the tank (add that to the current WW total, that gets you to just over 400). Not sure it has 100M left overseas. But I do think 450WW is a given, which is still a huge success.

We finally got it here in the UK, I'll galvanise my peeps to get it there! 

[The Dark Alfred]

The TITANIC vs A2 domestic battle will be fun. Hopefully the quality movie will prevail in the US in the end. WW don't think TITANIC re-release can match A2, but would love to be proven wrong.

[upriser7]

11 minutes ago, M37 said:

And I think way too much is being made of having a gay couple and the apocalypse "downer" angle to explain away the underwhelming performance; it just didn't connect with enough people to get bigger numbers

 

It was a generic home invasion thriller, and that it was by M Night is probably why it did $14M instead of Don't Breathe 2's $11M or Barbarian's $10M ... but still a pretty meh result from someone who previously took formulaic/generic horror stories and with his touch with produced $26M for Visit and $40M for Split

 

But I honestly don't care enough to belabor the point, so we can just agree to disagree here

I agree that some people on here are making too much about the impact of gay couple thing for this movie. I don't think this is a similar case as movies like LightYear, Strange World where there was lot more noise and RW outrage about gay characters. In the cases of movies like LightYear, Strange World, even though I wasn't interested in those movies and didn't even see the trailers, I still knew that those movies had some gay characters just due to the RW had some outrage about it online...I can't really remember anything like that for this movie.

[Eric the Minion]

6 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Creed 1 and 2 succeeded by linking up Rocky/Creed demos...Creed 3 will try to live on its own demo...(for example, Creed 2's top 2 demos were both 25+ - men, then women)...

Still, the biggest demo that came out was the 25-34 crowd at 30%. I do agree the lack of Rocky does alienate some of the crowd (and this is coming from somebody who really didn't care for Creed II and all the forced Rocky nostalgia bait), but that is something to consider that a big, young crowd still cares about these movies and I don't think it's entirely because of Stallone being in the background.

[Eric the Minion]

Still early, but 2023's starting to feel like a combination of 2019 and 2014. 2019 where there's major divides between the haves and have nots, with most of the haves coming from Disney, and a whole bunch of bombs. But also like 2014 where the highs really aren't all that high compared to previous years. I don't see any movie crossing 500M this year. But the one upside, unlike 2019, is that this March will have Creed 3, Scream 6, and John Wick all making very strong grosses, which shows the value in midbudget franchsies like these. Seeing those films soar will help ease the burn when the giant-budgeted Shazam and D&D crash and burn. Then you got Mario the first week of April, which means we'll have a fairly solid spring before the summer onslaught.

 

Creed - 45 (honestly I think this would be a really good opening considering the lack of Rocky and no Thanksgiving holiday to boost it up)

Scream - 40

Shazam - 35

65 - 10

Wick - 70

D&D - 15

 

All told, not a bad March.

[M37]

40 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Gonna go:

 

Creed - 40M (tracking is way lower than I expected but I imagine it picks back up)

Scream - 30M

Shazam - 35M

65 - 10M

John Wick - 80M

Dungeons - 20M (SXSW reception will make or break it)

Ok, let's do this

I think of the big four sequels, the only one with the arrow pointed up is Scream

• Creed III = $30M - that the sequel barely outgrossed the great WOM original makes me think the moment has passed, and this one goes sub-$100M
• Scream VI = $40M - branding and WOM from the last and this one easily beats M3G and crosses $100M
• 65 = $15M - dinos good, but think it just gets lost in the shuffle. Would have been better to release in one of these weaker Jan/Feb weeks
• Shazam = $60M - not gonna be surprised if it opens under the first for reasons others have mentioned, but for now think there's enough to at least match it, if not beat it
• John Wick = $45M - feels like we're moving closer to Bourne Legacy territory, past peak, than to see it keep going up
• D&D = $20M - there is more potential here, but going to depend heavily on reviews, whether it executes the humorous tone well and can expand audience pool (see: Free Guy)

[SchumacherFTW]

Surprised they aren't pushing that Wednesday actress more in 6cream marketing, seems a missed opportunity 

[Firepower]

If John Wick gets great reviews again, it should at least match JW3 opening, the interest is there.

 

Shazam is DOA, it's a dead man walking.

Edited February 5, 2023 by Firepower

[CaptNathanBrittles]

38 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I've heard the Ben Affleck Nike movie is great - rare thing that I can confirm first-hand!

 

It's funny folks say Creed II had more hype than III - in my area, it is the opposite. I think Creed II had more hype among Rocky fans, and Creed III has more hype among black audiences (which doesn't always show on tracking!) I think that separating from Stallone has both benefits and drawbacks. 

 

CREED II was more hyped because i) it was coming off a very well received movie and ii) Creed vs. Drago Jr was a great hook.

 

CREED III is coming off a movie that wasn't as well received and the movie doesn't have a hook.

[Firepower]

1 minute ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

CREED III is coming off a movie that wasn't as well received and the movie doesn't have a hook.

Hook is more of a problem, Creed 2 was still well received.