Mar 24 - 26 weekend thread - John Wick ̶3̶ 4 opens - woke up to a 5.9 monday | Jonathan is in Majors trouble | Shazam 2 crushed the Ant |

[RyneOh1040]

35 minutes ago, JWR said:

 

Bisexual person speaking here. I can't get enough of these movies.

I CAME HERE TO POST THIS 🤣. wick gives big bi energy to me, which maybe is why he kills all the bad bis 

[MightyDargon]

Just now, Ronin46 said:

 

Shazam is 1M for Thursday.....

The club I'm speaking of is Wick 4 OW>Shazam 2 entire run.

[Ronin46]

Just now, MightyDargon said:

The club I'm speaking of is Wick 4 OW>Shazam 2 entire run.

I created the club so I am quite aware of it.

 

Shazam had a very bad drop and is at 1m dailies now. Does not look like it will recover with JW and then D&D and Mario. Just to much competition. 

[Cmasterclay]

Hard because there isn't a ton of R-rated comparisons but the same IM as Venom gives $69 million, as No Time To Die gives $77 million, and Creed III gives $95 million. So there's a big range here!

[Mulder]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

Hard because there isn't a ton of R-rated comparisons but the same IM as Venom gives $69 million, as No Time To Die gives $77 million, and Creed III gives $95 million. So there's a big range here!

Even though this is the fourth entry, I feel like Venom is inherently more fan-driven and (Going off of what we have so far anyways) had a more divisive reception then Wick 4 seems to be getting. NTTD probably would be the safest for this I think.

[ringedmortality]

John Wick is actually canonically queer. 

[WrathOfHan]

if it follows JW3:

 

34.1M Friday

29.7M Saturday (-13% Full Fri/+18% True Fri)

22M (-26%)

85.8M Weekend

[Cmasterclay]

1 minute ago, Mulder said:

Even though this is the fourth entry, I feel like Venom is inherently more fan-driven and (Going off of what we have so far anyways) had a more divisive reception then Wick 4 seems to be getting. NTTD probably would be the safest for this I think.

I agree. High 70s/low 80s is the target now, the 90m dream is likely dead. Still incredibly impressive. I'll always remember seeing the John Wick trailer for first time at the AMC Georgetown and the entire audience laughing at it. Come a long way.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Hard because there isn't a ton of R-rated comparisons but the same IM as Venom gives $69 million, as No Time To Die gives $77 million, and Creed III gives $95 million. So there's a big range here!

Preview numbers for the latter two included earlier fan screenings though.

[Cmasterclay]

It seems like this would be fairly fan-driven, given it's a male-centric fourth entry, but it's also an R-rated adult movie in March competing against March Madness classics, so who knows.

[stripe]

Great previews!

80M+ OW here we go

[Joyous Legion]

75-80ish

[WrathOfHan]

4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

It seems like this would be fairly fan-driven, given it's a male-centric fourth entry, but it's also an R-rated adult movie in March competing against March Madness classics, so who knows.

There's probably the same amount of, if not fewer, colleges out on spring break right now vs semesters wrapping by Mid-May for JW3, so I really don't get where these 80M doubts are coming from.

Edited March 24, 2023 by WrathOfHan

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, Napoleon said:

I only watched the first John Wick and was bored to death, have no intention of watching the sequels, even though they keep casting fabulous queens like Halle Berry and Rina Sawayama. This franchise feels like something for straight guys only. I'm happy for you all, though. And especially for Keanu Reeves.

I had never seen them until they cast Halle Berry, so I watched 1 & 2 at home then 6 of us gays went to the cinema for 3 and will all definitely be going back for 4 because of Rina lol

[BadOlCatSylvester]

So, I've been visiting the Solo thread out of nostalgia, and I see that opened to 83M. Can John Wick 4 beat that? 

[MightyDargon]

14 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

I created the club so I am quite aware of it.

 

Shazam had a very bad drop and is at 1m dailies now. Does not look like it will recover with JW and then D&D and Mario. Just to much competition. 

There's a small chance Wick 4 still goes around 75 mil OW AND Shazam 2 manages to go over 80 mil. It seems much more likely Wick 4 will breakout given these early results and fan reception and I will be slain and impaled and hung from my own intestines in the Shazam 2 club, but I want to go down fighting.

[wildphantom]

Sad for Shazam as it’s a good movie. The discourse surrounding it and the DCEU, plus the films opening around it - proved all too much in the end. 

[vafrow]

16 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Even though this is the fourth entry, I feel like Venom is inherently more fan-driven and (Going off of what we have so far anyways) had a more divisive reception then Wick 4 seems to be getting. NTTD probably would be the safest for this I think.

 This is what I think as well, with the possibility that the word of mouth really lets it take off to push it over $80M, but that's probably more of an outlier scenario. 

 

On a different note, if this weekend does about $145M across all films, it should let March 2023 catch 2022 with a few days to spare.

 

January and February were in far excess of 2022 totals, but March 2022 had the first genuine hit, so, 2023 beating it is impressive. Especially as it's doing so with a diverse slate.

 

The irony is that next month, the question is whether Mario can lift a pretty weak April calendar over last year.

[MightyDargon]

April is excellent. Mario, Evil Dead Rise, Renfield...a lot of interesting product. Better than last year.

[GOGODanca]

So 12m is the best case for Shazam 2 this weekend?