Mar 24 - 26 weekend thread - John Wick ̶3̶ 4 opens - woke up to a 5.9 monday | Jonathan is in Majors trouble | Shazam 2 crushed the Ant |

[MightyDargon]

wondering if it goes over 300 mil total with a 80 mil plus opening.

[Napoleon]

I only watched the first John Wick and was bored to death, have no intention of watching the sequels, even though they keep casting fabulous queens like Halle Berry and Rina Sawayama. This franchise feels like something for straight guys only. I'm happy for you all, though. And especially for Keanu Reeves.

[GOGODanca]

6 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Wow, is this the biggest overindex we've seen so far? I know the final number is 7 or so hours away, but Deadline's report sounds pretty confident. I wonder if this'll be a trend over the weekend. $70M might not be locked if so.

Maybe $5 atom deal impacted the gross?

[stripe]

1 hour ago, vafrow said:

 

I'm also weirdly obsessive about the lack of $200M films. Last year it was all $300M+ or in the $150M range. Prepandemic, it was happening as well.

 

A good $200-300M blockbuster is great. It keeps the theatres busy without completely overrunning them and driving out everything else.

 

Fortunately, this year we will have more 200M grossers than 300M. 
AMQ

JW4

 

And possibly

Fast X

Little Mermaid

Spider Man

Elementals

Flash

Mission Impossible

Oppenheimer

Barbie

Hunger Games prequel

Dune 2

Wonka

Migration

 

Edited March 24, 2023 by stripe

[Brainbug]

I trust Charlie way more than early Deadline. 9,5M would safely secure 80M+

 

Also i agree with the sentiment that we have lacked 200M+ grossers in the last 5-8 years. But Quantumania was a first step into that direction (not that Marvel is happy about that) and John Wick 4 i think will safely land in that range as well.

[stripe]

42 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

wondering if it goes over 300 mil total with a 80 mil plus opening.

 

Impossible!

(checks TGM run...)

Almost impossible!

[MightyDargon]

when do you think the real number will drop? Deadline's about as accurate as a mole throwing darts at the wall.

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, MightyDargon said:

when do you think the real number will drop? Deadline's about as accurate as a mole throwing darts at the wall.

 

In the next 2 - 3 hours there should be an update with the real number.

[MightyDargon]

Just now, stripe said:

 

Impossible!

(checks TGM run...)

Almost impossible!

95% on RT, 8.5 on IMDB. Extremely difficult but not actually beyond imagination IMO, esp. if it opens to 89 mil (yes that's an insane overperformance).

Also I can't get it out of my head that the long runtime means this will be a "weekend movie" like Avatar and that will bend the gross to make it slightly slower but longer. I think it's the only R rated action movie that will be out for some time.

[vafrow]

15 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

Fortunately, this year we will have more 200M grossers than 300M. 
AMQ

JW4

 

And possibly

Fast X

Little Mermaid

Spider Man

Elementals

Flash

Mission Impossible

Oppenheimer

Barbie

Hunger Games prequel

Dune 2

Wonka

Migration

 

It feels like there are few blockbusters this year that you can safely count on being above that range. I'd put Guardians of the Galaxy and Mario as the only ones I would say are secure. Almost every other one stand a good chance to fall in there. Some need to perform above expectations to do so (Oppenheimer, Hunger Games, etc.) and some would need to underperform (Indy, Aquaman, etc). But after a period of the box office being so top heavy, I'd welcome that result if we get it.

[JWR]

1 hour ago, Napoleon said:

I only watched the first John Wick and was bored to death, have no intention of watching the sequels, even though they keep casting fabulous queens like Halle Berry and Rina Sawayama. This franchise feels like something for straight guys only. I'm happy for you all, though. And especially for Keanu Reeves.

 

Bisexual person speaking here. I can't get enough of these movies.

[keysersoze123]

Charlie is just extrapolating based on a chain. That could skew big time. But Deadline is too early to report previews as well. We should get numbers from studio in few hours. 

[Elessar]

34 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

when do you think the real number will drop? Deadline's about as accurate as a mole throwing darts at the wall.

 

That is not my experience. Deadline is pretty accurate when it comes to preview / OD numbers. As accurate as you can be so early on.

[ThePhasmid]

I'm crossing fingers for 70+ million. I'm not expecting Top Gun: Maverick numbers due to the MPAA rating, but an original action IP operating at the highest level of proficiency deserves a fitting lion's share in its farewell.

[Mulder]

20 minutes ago, JWR said:

 

Bisexual person speaking here. I can't get enough of these movies.

Not het or a male and I also love them lol

[John Marston]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/john-wick-4-box-office-thursday-previews-1235359935/

 

 

Box Office: ‘John Wick 4’ Blazes to $8.9M in Thursday Previews

[Mulder]

Just now, John Marston said:

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/john-wick-4-box-office-thursday-previews-1235359935/

 

 

Box Office: ‘John Wick 4’ Blazes to $8.9M in Thursday Previews

Closer to Charlie's 9.5 then Deadline's flat 8. I do think the long run-time probably hit its later showings and something we should keep in mind for the weekend.

[MightyDargon]

8.9 is quite high and pretty close to what Charlie said. Expect weekend will be even higher following the Avatar Rule for longer movies. Will it kill me in the Shazam club? Not sure.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Much better than Deadline's early number. I'm going to pull a $72M opening out of my ass for now and see how it goes.

[Ronin46]

1 minute ago, MightyDargon said:

8.9 is quite high and pretty close to what Charlie said. Expect weekend will be even higher following the Avatar Rule for longer movies. Will it kill me in the Shazam club? Not sure.

 

Shazam is 1M for Thursday.....