THE SUPER MARIO BROS MOVIE WEEKEND THREAD

[Flip]

4 minutes ago, superduperm said:

Good OD, but I don’t see the math as to how this gets to $200M five-day. I’m struggling to see how $175M is even possible.

 

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 is the best comparison we have (opened 9 days before Easter instead of 4) and it dropped 42% on Easter Sunday.

 

The only way $200M happens is if this goes Wednesday-to-weekend bonkers like Shrek 2 in 2004 somehow, but I don’t think that’s what will happen. Best-case scenario is Friday-Saturday both manage to have a “4” at the start of their numbers but even then, a 35%+ Sunday drop softens the weekend total to ~$110M.

 

Not saying the numbers we’ve gotten so far aren’t good. They’re great. But I just don’t see the math in a $175M+ five-day. Maybe this will stun me and have a Shrek 2 bounce, idk, but I give that maybe a 5% chance of happening.

Probably going to do 21, 43, 45, 30 for a 5 day of 170m

[grey ghost]

5 minutes ago, John Marston said:

since this movie appeals heavily to gamers/non kids I wonder if it will play more like a superhero movie than  a family movie

 

Well it's not a sequel so that's one thing to consider.

 

Also there's Incredibles 2 which had long sexy Elastigirl legs.

[vafrow]

My theatre has officially sold as many tickets for Thursday shows than they did for opening night last night. It's still four hours until the first screening starts today as well.

 

I expect walkups to continue and wouldn't be surprised if it ends the night 20-30% above yesterday, with the biggest restraint is that the Dolby auditorium is pretty close to being sold out, so can't get much more from there.

[JayPrimetown]

4 hours ago, grey ghost said:

 

Demon Slayer is a kid's movie? 

Not really, but Minions Rise of Gru is which did over $900 Million Worldwide last year. 

[grey ghost]

I think Avatar 2, NWH and TGM are all in a higher category financially than Minions 2.

 

We'll see where Super Mario lands.

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

 

[kayumanggi]

👀

[Brainbug]

Just now, kayumanggi said:

👀

 

That would produce a funny weekend thread since were not allowed to discuss Marvel vs DC on the forums

Spoiler

pls mods its a joke no ban pls

 

[kayumanggi]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

 

That would produce a funny weekend thread since were not allowed to discuss Marvel vs DC on the forums

  Reveal hidden contents

pls mods its a joke no ban pls

 

 

If there's one movie that could possibly touch THE FORCE AWAKENS, it could be this IF done right.

[grey ghost]

4 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

👀

 

 

Wait till after the first mcu X-men story and Gunn's recent DC reboot.

 

 

[Alex SciChannel]

Super Mario Bros Movie O/U domestic ow 3-day of Minions 1?

Also O/U domestic total of Frozen 2?

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, grey ghost said:

While we wait for Wednesday estimates can we do our top 5 video game franchises?

 

Overwatch

Tetris

Mario Kart

Grand Theft Auto

Marvel 

 

If you go by my boys, it's:

 

Mario

Fortnite

Minecraft

Roblox

 

Those are the movie franchises that should be animated...

[eddyxx]

3 hours ago, Cappoedameron said:

You know how you respond with this Disney. You greenliight the long awaited Kingdom Hearts movie. MC character goes through classic Disney Worlds alongside Donald and Goofy sounds like a goldmine.

 

Or do a huge deal with Capcom and announce a Marvel VS Capcom animated movie/series. Marvel Studios really needs to branch out from the MCU films if its to have longevity as a studio.

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, grey ghost said:

Anyone the The Little Mermaid will benefit from being the first kids' movie after Super Mario?

 

Won't families be hungry for another family outing?

 

Yeah, that will be Spidey the very next week.  

 

 

[Flamengo81]

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

I think Mario will be the single billionaire movie this year 

 

I think GOTG3, Transformers, Elemental, SpiderVerse, Flash, MI7, Fast X, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Indy etc all should do well which is good for theaters, but honestly without China doing some heavylifting i think all of them will ended in the 500-850M range 

I completely agree and Mario IMO is not even stopping at the 1B, I think it has a legitimate chance at Frozen numbers. The ones I think have the most chance to join the billion dollar club are Little Mermaid and MI7, but I would not put money on it.

[John Marston]

 

[grey ghost]

7 minutes ago, eddyxx said:

 

Or do a huge deal with Capcom and announce a Marvel VS Capcom animated movie/series. Marvel Studios really needs to branch out from the MCU films if its to have longevity as a studio.

 

They have plenty of characters but they're doing their best to burn themselves out by phase 6.

[Dragoncaine]

1 hour ago, grey ghost said:

While we wait for Wednesday estimates can we do our top 5 video game franchises?

 

Overwatch

Tetris

Mario Kart

Grand Theft Auto

Marvel 

Zelda

Mario

Metroid

The Elder Scrolls

God of War

Edited April 6, 2023 by Dragoncaine

[Eric is Anxious]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

Minions was fueled by nostalgic Gen z teens. This movie is a far more traditional animated audience, with the added bonus of multi-gen appeal. The multi will obliterate something like Minion’s. And no comp for an entire month to boot. 

And this isn't fueled by nostalgic audiences at all? Come on now.

[robertman2]

1 hour ago, grey ghost said:

While we wait for Wednesday estimates can we do our top 5 video game franchises?

 

Overwatch

Tetris

Mario Kart

Grand Theft Auto

Marvel 

Persona

3D Mario

Castlevania

Smash

Half-Life