April 14th-16th 2023 Weekend Thread | $900K previews for Renfield

[superduperm]

4 minutes ago, screambaby said:

Sp what do we think it drops to on momday?

Before this weekend I would’ve said $5-6M. Now I’m thinking $7.5M.

[Cheddar Please]

6 minutes ago, superduperm said:

Before this weekend I would’ve said $5-6M. Now I’m thinking $7.5M.

If it's 8m+ I'd be tempted to call it for 600m

[KP1025]

A kids-skewing film would normally drop over 80% Sun-Mon during this time of year (Sonic 2 dropped over 83% on its post-Easter Monday). But Mario is pulling from all 4 quadrants, so I'd think it can do quite a bit better. 

[Ledmonkey96]

Didn't think it was likely before this weekend but i guess we are probably getting the streak of weekends with a movie above 30mil to extend for a long while.

[keysersoze123]

This is a normal week after 42% of schools were out last week. Take that into account. Every movie will tank hard today. Kids movies will drop close to 85%. Mario might attract some adults who were unable to get good tickets over the weekend. but drop wont look that good especially with kind of weekdays seen last week(even thursday to monday drop). 

[KP1025]

23 hours ago, KP1025 said:

Jungle Book added an additional $172 million to its total after a second weekend of $61.5 million. The same multiplier gives Mario an extra $243 million assuming a second weekend of $87 million for a total of $591 million.

 

With the updated second weekend figure of $92.45 million, the Jungle Book comp now gives Mario a total finish of $612 million.

[Brainbug]

On 4/16/2023 at 1:02 PM, Brainbug said:

Im on the 700M train for Mario now. This thing has become a phenomenon and i dont see it stopping anytime soon.

 

On 4/16/2023 at 4:05 PM, Brainbug said:

I agree with you guys @KP1025 @M37 i think i got cought up by the hype, i actually didnt think about thze huge advantage of the summer weekdays that I2 obviously had. 700M right now is indeed kind of ludicrous thinking.

 

Though still, 600M is far from impossible. The 3rd weekend hold will probably give us a very good idea if this one settles in the 500Ms or can get above I2.

 

Im back on the 700M train.

 

Spoiler

Spoiler

For real though, 600 - 640M region looks very possible.

 

 

[thajdikt]

1 minute ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Didn't think it was likely before this weekend but i guess we are probably getting the streak of weekends with a movie above 30mil to extend for a long while.

Hopefully all the way to August 

[titanic2187]

1 hour ago, stripe said:

 

Problem with March's agregated gross was the lack of more wide openers in the 3rd and 4th weekends. Also, weak numbers from February holdovers

That is the another reason why I think March is disappointing. AM3 underperformance had already open an extra breathing room for March players but some players, especially PG-13 action flick aren't able to capitalize that breathing room.

 

Hope Mario supercharged overperformance is not on the expenses of other major tentpoles in next few weeks, especially Fast X and GOTG3.

[JohnnyGossamer]

6 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

That is the another reason why I think March is disappointing. AM3 underperformance had already open an extra breathing room for March players but some players, especially PG-13 action flick aren't able to capitalize that breathing room.

 

Hope Mario supercharged overperformance is not on the expenses of other major tentpoles in next few weeks, especially Fast X and GOTG3.

I'm not sure we could've expected much more from Creed III and Wick Chapter 4. Both as well or better than expected and are the high water mark DOM wise for each series. Dungeons & Dragons could've done more but going into it's release many were expecting what Shazam did or worse and it overachieved. The big disappointment has to be Shazam and, of course, Ant-Man not holding well at all into March. I honestly don't think we could've asked more from Scream 6 either... Highest admissions since Scream and Scream 2.

[michellekg]

59 minutes ago, Godzilla said:

The first Puss in Boots made $50M in Russia. Its biggest market there. This one didn't get released there.

It did about $ 1,5 mln in a dozen of theaters where it was released unofficially. Imagine how much it would have grossed in 2,000 theaters if it had been released properly.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

25 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

Hopefully all the way to August 

I think Aug 25 might be the first below it and then we’ll be back a week later with Equalizer.

[MovieMan89]

93

W U T

 

Yeah, 700 is happening people. RIP to all the naysayers who have been trying their damndest to struggle against this phenomenon, I hope your argument’s deaths came without much suffering. 

[MovieMan89]

This movie really is going to be a decent comp to Spidey 02. Obviously not admissions wise, but adjusted it won’t even land that far away. We know how that changed the industry regarding CBMs. Would be silly to think Mario isn’t going to have that effect for VGMs. 

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[Krissykins]

Insane for Mario! 

[JohnnyGossamer]

Going into it's 3rd weekend, Incredibles 2 was at 407.7M DOM after summer weekdays of 10.4M (Monday), 13.7M (Tuesday), 10.2 (Wednesday) and 10.0M (Thursday). Obviously Super Mario will do much more than what Incredibles 2's 46.4M third weekend DOM. 

 

That said, how far behind Incredibles 2 DOM do people expect Super Mario to be going into this coming weekend?

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

93

W U T

 

Yeah, 700 is happening people. RIP to all the naysayers who have been trying their damndest to struggle against this phenomenon, I hope your argument’s deaths came without much suffering. 

I’m iffy on 700 yet because of May/June but I’m sold on $600m+.

[M37]

37 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

This is a normal week after 42% of schools were out last week. Take that into account. Every movie will tank hard today. Kids movies will drop close to 85%. Mario might attract some adults who were unable to get good tickets over the weekend. but drop wont look that good especially with kind of weekdays seen last week(even thursday to monday drop). 

And with that massive Sun hold, Mario should be on higher end of drops. Sonic dropped 88% from Sat to Mon on post-Easter week, Bad Guys -88.7%.  That’s good baseline expectation IMO, around $4.7M; won’t be surprised with up to $5M, but anything higher than that points to a strong hold in week 3