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charlie Jatinder

Weekdays (8-11 May, 2023) Thread.

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12 minutes ago, Skim Beeble said:

Daily Domestic Chart for Tuesday May 9, 2023

    Movie Title Gross %YD %LW Theaters Per
Theater
Total
Gross
Days In
Release
- (1) Guardians of the Galaxy V… $25,200,000 +182%   4,450 $5,663 $152,539,062 5
- (3) Evil Dead Rise $660,000 +18% -47% 3,036 $217 $55,472,122 19
- (6) Love Again $415,000 +80%   2,703 $154 $3,026,207 5

 

 

$200m second weekend confirmed

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18 hours ago, Nate said:


2.63 would be right in the range I see it, too.

I've also updated the tracker (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1weA0j-34xNAfweltuvwcsCFHe_TJ9-vHWYqS3TNANqw/edit?usp=sharing ) to include all Rotten Tomatoes critic score/averages and audience score/averages - so it's easier to compare titles whilst also including that data point, to your point earlier. Hopefully it's helpful!

Interesting to look back at all the scores - it's pretty obvious which films were review bombed.

rYj6H38.png

 

My little chart. Ignore 15+ preview multipliers. But there is a pretty clear case of the higher your preview multiplier is, the better your total multiplier will be.

 

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Another decent weekday number for GOTG. Bodes well for the second weekend. This will be a tight showdown.

 

MCU THREEQUEL SHOWDOWN  - GOTG VS THOR: RAGNAROK

 

DAY 5: (TUESDAY) GOTG 3 11.100m

DAY 5: (TUESDAY) THOR: RAGNAROK 10.824m

 

DAILY GAIN: GOTG 3 +0.276m

CUME: GOTG 3 138.439m  VS  THOR 141.817m

TARGET: MINUS 3.378m

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3 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Jatinder just posted on the Telegram group that Guardians 3 could go over $7M for Wednesday from an early glance at presales.

After a 25 million Tuesday that would be a disaster!

Crumbling!

Edited by screambaby
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9 hours ago, M37 said:

When I wrote that post, no matter what potential one might have thought was lurking, we had over 3 weeks of data that showed people just weren't buying tickets, and it was going to take a major catalyst just to beat AMWQ ... and we did in fact get an 80/90% percentile outcome from that starting point. Pretty sure your AMWQ range was even higher 10 days out, and I caught a lot of flack for constantly trying to temper expectations there

Look I’ve been trying to be circumspect about this but when you wrote that post the data in hand didn’t support the range at all. We got like a 30-40th percentile outcome from there you were just WAY bearish on how it was going to finish. 
 

QM only appeared to vindicate the PS bears because it turned out to be a huge mess and that has tainted a lot of perceptions since then about low numbers being smarter/more sober analysis when they aren’t really.

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8 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

after a frankly underwhelming Monday

Underwhelming Monday? It was an amazing Monday. On contrary Tuesday means nothing for the overall trend. It could be up 40% and it will still means nothing.

 

Even if that 8.93M is supposed to be taken as actual, it was 28.4% of Sunday 25.2% of GoTG2. 

 

That’s 13% better hold which had a good trending in first place. Daily collections went from 80% of GoTG2 on SUN to 90%+ on MON.

 

Anyways, its WED hold that matter eventually but MON was the first taste of what to come.

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That less than 100M projection was BS for GoTG2. The biggest problem of M37 analysis was he probably didn’t had data (or knew) how normal CBM pre-sales are supposed to go. 
 

He was predicting 13-15M previews comparing with films that had 30M previews which is fundamentally wrong and that’s why he was all about this has STRONG growth in final days, when it was barely normal. In fact it took a meh Walkups on THU to end with $18M otherwise where it was placed on TUE night, $20M was likely with normal proceedings.

 

He could have been better off including Black Widow in his comps but I suppose he didn’t have data on it.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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Daily business ratio between GoTG 3 & GoTG 2 from FRI till WED.

 

77.28%
75.78%
80.33%
90.54%
92.17%
94.32%


Risen to 94%, should soon overtake in dailies, possibly in 2nd weekdays.

 

Even if it don’t, GoTG2 added 213M after WED. 94% of that will lead to $345M.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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