Weekdays (8-11 May, 2023) Thread.

[kayumanggi]

 

[Nate]

3 hours ago, DisposedData said:

I feel people are being a little too eager here to proclaim the legs are going to be amazing

 

Agree... when looking at ALL past SH movies 2017 to now, and disregarding midweek & Christmas openers,  the multiplier range is solidly 1.9-3.0. I'm intentionally ignoring 2020 releases + outliers Wonder Woman (4.0), Joker (3.5), and Black Panther (3.5) - since it's unreasonable to expect GOTG3 to perform like any of those.

In the upper bounds of that 1.9-3.0 range, between 2.7-3.0, you only have Shang Chi (3.0), The Batman (2.8), Captain Marvel (2.8), Ant-Man2 (2.9), Thor 3 (2.9), and GOTG2 (2.7). This has to be the limit of what is doable for GOTG3, and still higher than the 2.5 average for a SH film (that's between 2014 and now, it's lower just looking post-covid).

As far as 2nd weekend drops for those films, you're looking at Shang-Chi (-54%), The Batman (-50%), Captain Marvel (-56%), Ant-Man 2 (-62%), Thor 3 (-54%), and GOTG2 (-56%).

Seeing as none of these could manage a sub 50% drop, I don't see the argument for it, especially being that these are high-end comps. Even sub 55% has only been done a handful of time outside the holiday period.

Going to say that the 56% 2nd weekend drop and 2.7 multiplier for GOTG2 would be a great place to finish. GOTG3 has a better reception, for sure, but that may be balanced out by the fact that multipliers for SH films have generally dropped post-covid. We're looking at just 2.38 for all 2021 - 2023 SH films, and that's including No Way Home over Christmas, compared to 2.68 for 2014-2019 (excluding midweek (Far From Home at 4.2) and Christmas (Aquaman at 4.9) releases.

What am I missing here? Would genuinely love the reasoned, data-influenced argument for an above 2.7 multiplier.

BTW: I've created a tracker for all of these figures, you can see it here:
 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1weA0j-34xNAfweltuvwcsCFHe_TJ9-vHWYqS3TNANqw/edit?usp=sharing

Edited May 9, 2023 by Nate

[screambaby]

So EDR could pass shaazam DOM today lol

[ChipDerby]

35 minutes ago, Nate said:

What am I missing here? Would genuinely love the reasoned, data-influenced argument for an above 2.7 multiplier.

 

Endgame (2.4), Ragnarok (2.57), Civil War (2.28), Wakanda (2.5). Those are the only 4 MCU films with a RT average score 7.2 or higher that have a multiplier that's not at least 2.63.

 

Since Endgame and Civil War are team ups, you can probably exclude those as the OWs are greatly inflated.

 

GOTG3 is guaranteed a 2.5 multiplier. And 2.7+ is extremely likely.

[M37]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Huge damage from @M37 post few weeks ago 🙂

 

[TwoMisfits]

Final Monday number...

 

1

(1)

Guardians of the Galaxy V…

$8,925,041

[ringedmortality]

flop

[BadOlCatSylvester]

28 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Final Monday number...

 

1

(1)

Guardians of the Galaxy V…

$8,925,041

Again, pretty unremarkable number. I have a hunch this ia going to be Wakanda Forever again and drop off fairly quickly. I'm sticking with a 60% drop for the second weekend and will be pleasantly surprised if it outperforms that.

[Nate]

1 hour ago, ChipDerby said:

 

Endgame (2.4), Ragnarok (2.57), Civil War (2.28), Wakanda (2.5). Those are the only 4 MCU films with a RT average score 7.2 or higher that have a multiplier that's not at least 2.63.

 

Since Endgame and Civil War are team ups, you can probably exclude those as the OWs are greatly inflated.

 

GOTG3 is guaranteed a 2.5 multiplier. And 2.7+ is extremely likely.

So your prediction is based on RT score being strong? Definitely possible / understandable, and it could do similarly to something like The Batman and have a strong -50% drop and a 2.8 multiplier - it's just outside of the norm by a decent margin (especially that 2nd weekend drop). Right now, I feel more comfortable with it finishing 2.5-2.7, as opposed to something over that.

What would your closest comps be, in terms of how you expect this to perform moving forward? Maybe The Batman (2.8), GOTG1 (3.5) , Captain Marvel (2.8), Shang-Chi (3.0), Deadpool (2.8) or Spider-Man Homecoming (2.9)? 

[The Dark Alfred]

MCU THREEQUEL SHOWDOWN  - GOTG 3  VS THOR: RAGNAROK

 

DAY 4: (MONDAY) GOTG 3 8.925m

DAY 4: (MONDAY) THOR: RAGNAROK 8.247m

 

DAILY GAIN: GOTG 3 +0.678m

CUME: GOTG 3 127.339m  VS  THOR 130.992m

TARGET: MINUS 3.653m

[thajdikt]

1 minute ago, The Dark Alfred said:

MCU THREEQUEL SHOWDOWN  - GOTG 3  VS THOR: RAGNAROK

 

DAY 4: (MONDAY) GOTG 3 8.925m

DAY 4: (MONDAY) THOR: RAGNAROK 8.247m

 

DAILY GAIN: GOTG 3 +0.678m

CUME: GOTG 3 127.339m  VS  THOR 130.992m

TARGET: MINUS 3.653m

and the hunt begins.

[ChipDerby]

34 minutes ago, Nate said:

So your prediction is based on RT score being strong? Definitely possible / understandable, and it could do similarly to something like The Batman and have a strong -50% drop and a 2.8 multiplier - it's just outside of the norm by a decent margin (especially that 2nd weekend drop). Right now, I feel more comfortable with it finishing 2.5-2.7, as opposed to something over that.

What would your closest comps be, in terms of how you expect this to perform moving forward? Maybe The Batman (2.8), GOTG1 (3.5) , Captain Marvel (2.8), Shang-Chi (3.0), Deadpool (2.8) or Spider-Man Homecoming (2.9)? 

 

Honestly, because it is a sequel (but not a team up) it's hard to compare it directly. But it's closest comps as far as reviews/audience scores is probably Infinity War (2.63) lol. It shares similar scores across the board with that. I'm still trying to compile Preview/OW multipliers to see if there's a pattern there. But a 2.63 puts it over $310 mil.

[Nate]

36 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

 

Honestly, because it is a sequel (but not a team up) it's hard to compare it directly. But it's closest comps as far as reviews/audience scores is probably Infinity War (2.63) lol. It shares similar scores across the board with that. I'm still trying to compile Preview/OW multipliers to see if there's a pattern there. But a 2.63 puts it over $310 mil.

2.63 would be right in the range I see it, too.

I've also updated the tracker (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1weA0j-34xNAfweltuvwcsCFHe_TJ9-vHWYqS3TNANqw/edit?usp=sharing ) to include all Rotten Tomatoes critic score/averages and audience score/averages - so it's easier to compare titles whilst also including that data point, to your point earlier. Hopefully it's helpful!

Interesting to look back at all the scores - it's pretty obvious which films were review bombed.

Edited May 9, 2023 by Nate

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Huge damage from @M37 post few weeks ago 🙂

 

f those ungrateful fools

[Legion Again]

Reddit has been very silly the last few days (and in general) but I can’t honestly defend the 80-105 either when my range at the time was like 110-140 😅   

[charlie Jatinder]

11M

[ChipDerby]

 

 

[Legion Again]

Pretty normal bounce. Tomorrow we live or die

[Sckathian]

I still think peoples expectations are being coloured by low expectations. It seems to be performing in the range you would expect if we hadn’t had the Ant Man debacle.

 

anyway Reddit posts are always funny to see. Some people don’t understand data.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Solid Tuesday. Hopefully a 50% to 55% drop this coming weekend. Still holding strong at Letterboxd with a 4.20 with 223K votes. Wonder if it has a shot to be the highest rated MCU movie there?